This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Newcastle look to continue their quest for a top-five finish when they host Brentford at St. James' Park on Wednesday.
The Magpies are coming off their first trophy since 1969 after defeating Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final before the international break. Their attention turns to a heated race for Champions League football.
England will be getting five teams into the Champions League next season and Newcastle are sitting only one point behind Manchester City for fifth place with a game in hand.
Brentford are in a different battle, looking for their second ever top-half finish in the Premier League, sitting four points behind Bournemouth. Thomas Frank's side has pulled off some pretty big upsets this season and destroyed Newcastle 4-2 at the GTech Stadium earlier in the campaign.
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Premier League Best Bets for Newcastle vs. Brentford
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
I don't think there is a better striker on the planet right now than Alexander Isak.
He has everything you could want in a striker. He can make runs off the back line, he's an aerial threat, he can drop deep in build up to connect the play, and most importantly he has every type of finish in his locker.
He's scored 23 goals in all competitions this season and has a 0.68 xG per-90 minute scoring rate, which is third best in the Premier League behind only Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland.
Whether Brentford play a low block or decide to press high, Isak will find space, and Newcastle will do everything in their power to get him the ball.
I love the value on him to find the back of the net at -125.
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Betting on Anytime Goal or Assist
Bryan Mbeumo is likely going to make a move to a bigger club in the summer because of his ability to beat defenders one on one. He did that in the previous meeting, isolating against Lewis Hall while cutting inside and putting the ball in the back of the net.
Newcastle are more than likely going to shift to a man-to-man press when Brentford try to build out of the back, which means Valentino Livramento is more than likely going to be left alone against Mbeumo.
When the press comes, don't be surprised to see Brentford use Mbeumo as a target man and play direct balls to him to win that matchup.
Mbeumo leads Brentford with 15 goals and is third in the Premier League with 6.9 expected assists.
I like the value on him to score or assist in this match at +125.
Betting on Goal Props
Brentford could come out and sit in a low block, but Frank's side has been pressing higher up the pitch with regularity this season. The Bees are seventh in the Premier League in danger zone losses forced and eighth in build-up completion percentage allowed.
However, they allow a lot of chances and aren't that great defending in transition. Brentford are allowing the second most shots and the most box entries of anyone in the Premier League. They also struggled in their match against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup, losing 3-1 and were poor defending in a low block.
Newcastle are aggressive with their pressing, but leaving defenders one on one against Brentford's attackers is asking for trouble because the Bees are so good at making those runs off the back line.
This should be a back and forth match, and I like the value on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at -125.
Newcastle vs. Brentford Betting Picks
- Alexander Isak Anytime Goalscorer (-125)
- Bryan Mbeumo to Score or Assist (+125)
- Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 goals (-125)
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