This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both Australian Open women's semifinals will be played Thursday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting at 3:30 a.m. EST on Thursday in the United States. The top two seeds are looking to set up a chalk championship match, but a pair of experienced underdogs have other ideas.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Thursday's women's semifinal matches.
Australian Open Odds: Sabalenka vs. Badosa
Aryna Sabalenka (-330) vs. Paula Badosa (+250)
Sabalenka reaching this stage has become nearly inevitable, as this is her eighth Grand Slam semifinal in her last nine majors played, and the world No. 1 has a 19-match winning streak at the Australian Open specifically. She cruised through four straight-sets wins at this tournament before being pushed to a deciding set in a 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 quarterfinal victory over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head against Badosa 5-2 overall and has won their last five meetings since the start of 2022.
While Sabalenka's no stranger to this stage, Badosa is in her first Grand Slam semifinal. The 27-year-old Spaniard earned her spot with a 7-5, 6-4 quarterfinal win over world No. 3 Coco Gauff, but that was a match in which Badosa was able to play off her front foot while this matchup with the bigger-hitting Sabalenka is more likely to expose Badosa's suspect defense. Step one for Badosa is handling the nerves in arguably the biggest match of her life, and even if she steps up to meet the moment, she'll still be fighting an uphill battle against the best hard-court player on the WTA Tour. On the bright side, it's easier to produce two incredible sets and pull an upset in best-of-three play than it is to conjure up three sets good enough to beat the cream of the ATP crop in the best-of-five format at Grand Slams.
Australian Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Sabalenka def. Badosa 6-4, 7-6
Australian Open Odds: Swiatek vs. Keys
Iga Swiatek (-475) vs. Madison Keys (+350)
Swiatek seems to have relaxed a bit without the pressure of the No. 1 ranking on her shoulders, as the No. 2 seed has dropped just seven games in her last four matches combined, matching the number of games she lost in the first round. She didn't play a seeded opponent until the quarterfinals, where Swiatek steamrolled No. 8 seed Emma Navarro, 6-1, 6-2. Swiatek's onto her second Australian Open semifinal and is trying to reach the final here for the first time in her career. She leads the head-to-head against Keys 4-1, though a deeper dig gives the American some hope. Three of those wins came on Iga's preferred clay, and the fourth was a 6-1, 6-0 drubbing on the notoriously slow hard courts of Indian Wells in 2022, which Keys avenged later that year in Cincinnati, where the fast hard-court conditions are most similar to those in Melbourne.
Despite having longer odds, Keys has a better chance of pulling off an upset than Badosa. Not only has Swiatek been significantly less dominant at this venue than Sabalenka, but Keys has a game style that can give Iga trouble on faster courts. Swiatek becomes nigh unstoppable when she gets into a rhythm and starts to push her opponent around with multi-shot combinations, but Keys' powerful groundstrokes can get on Swiatek before the Pole has time to set up. The favorite's forehand can break down against big hitters on fast courts like this one and Swiatek can get flustered on the rare occasion that a match isn't going her way, but Keys will likely have to serve well in addition to executing from the baseline for the American to reach her second career Grand Slam final. Swiatek's an excellent frontrunner, so it will be imperative for Keys to apply pressure early and keep Swiatek from settling down.
Australian Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Swiatek def. Keys 7-6, 4-6, 6-3
