Collette Calls: Stolen Base Opportunities

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Updated on May 4, 2017 5:12PM EST

Billy Hamilton leads baseball in steals with 15. This is not a surprise because it is what Hamilton does. What is surprising is A.J. Pollock is second in the league with 11 stolen bases. Arizona running as much as it is is rather refreshing because we did not have any idea whether new skipper Torey Lovullo would pick up where Chip Hale left off last year. Lovullo, in fact, has taken it up a notch and is double-stealing almost like clockwork when the opportunity presents itself. Arizona has attempted 45 steals in 2017, 10 more than any other team in the league.

Stolen bases are not all about speed. After all, Jesus Sucre has a stolen base this season while fellow catcher J.T. Realmuto has yet to steal a base. Stolen bases have a few moving parts in that equation, including manager philosophy, but more importantly, the opportunity to steal a base.

Baseball Reference tracks this for us using their SBO stat: stolen base opportunities. The stat is defined as plate appearances through which a runner was on first or second and the next base is unoccupied. That metric does not count double-steal opportunities since both second and third are not unoccupied in those situations, but it still allows us to see which teams are running and which are staying put when they have the chance to steal a base to get that much closer to scoring a run.

The table below shows team stats entering play Tuesday night by

The table below shows team stats entering play Tuesday night by SBO, total stolen base attempts and percentage of stolen bases. What we are looking for are teams that are getting opportunities, whether they are running in those opportunities and how successful they have been in stealing bases. Teams that are converting steals over the break-even point of 72 percent could be doing even more while those below that rate could decide to stop giving up precious baserunners.

TEAM	SBO	SB	CS	SA	SB%
LAD	393	8	4	12	67%
WSN	384	11	4	15	73%
CHC	376	13	5	18	72%
TBR	372	14	4	18	78%
HOU	369	13	9	22	59%
ARI	356	32	8	40	80%
CLE	356	12	5	17	71%
BOS	356	10	6	16	63%
NYY	355	19	4	23	83%
DET	355	9	8	17	53%
SEA	350	21	5	26	81%
TOR	347	8	5	13	62%
STL	346	13	7	20	65%
LgAvg	340	14	5	19	72%
MIN	339	12	2	14	86%
SFG	339	11	2	13	85%
COL	337	4	4	8	50%
LAA	336	13	4	17	76%
SDP	334	16	7	23	70%
PIT	331	13	12	25	52%
BAL	328	7	3	10	70%
ATL	326	18	4	22	82%
CIN	325	27	4	31	87%
CHW	322	8	9	17	47%
MIL	320	25	6	31	81%
MIA	319	11	2	13	85%
PHI	315	11	5	16	69%
TEX	305	22	10	32	69%
NYM	304	9	2	11	82%
OAK	302	8	4	12	67%
KCR	299	14	4	18	78%

The Dodgers have had more stolen base opportunities than any team in baseball, and yet only the Rockies have attempted fewer stolen bases. Even the steals the Dodgers have attempted has not gone well for them. Arizona is making the most of its opportunities, attempting 40 (five more Tuesday night) and are converting those steals well above the break-even point, which means they should continue to be aggressive on the bases.

In the middle of that is a team like Houston, who is getting many opportunities, but is giving away runs with a poor stolen-base conversion rate, which could lead to A.J. Hinch slowing down the running game. Teams like the Yankees and the Mariners are both running and converting a high number of their steals, which bodes well for players on those teams, particularly a healthy Jean Segura in Seattle.

On the other end, we have a few intriguing teams that are not seeing enough running chances yet but are doing a great job of converting their opportunities as they present themselves. The Reds are enjoying Billy Hamilton doing a lot of the heavy lifting for them, but the Braves and Brewers are right on their heels as both teams are converting steals more than 80 percent of the time even when their SBO totals are both below league average. Meanwhile, teams like the White Sox and Pirates are giving up baserunners with very poor conversion rates, and both skippers should consider curtailing the running game and perhaps go more hit and run.

Now, what about individual players? Let's look at some players based on Speed Score from FanGraphs based and look at how many stolen base opportunities they've had and how many steals they have attempted, and how successful they have been. The goal is to look for players who are not yet taking full advantage of their skills and opportunities who could perhaps be in line for a bump in stolen bases. The data is as of the beginning of play on Tuesday and sorted by SBO.

PLAYER	PA	SPD	SBO	SBA
Freddie Freeman	110	6.2	59	6
Brad Miller	115	5.8	53	3
Brandon Belt	116	5	52	1
Kris Bryant	122	6.4	51	5
Mitch Haniger	95	6.3	51	3
Christian Yelich	113	5.8	49	3
Kevin Kiermaier	120	6.7	46	6
Mike Trout	121	7.3	45	5
Jake Lamb	111	6.8	45	3
Manuel Margot	120	6.5	45	7
Brett Gardner	95	6.1	45	5
A.J. Pollock	117	8.1	44	12
Zack Cozart	93	5.8	44	1
Ian Kinsler	112	6.3	43	1
Jose Altuve	110	5.5	43	9
Chase Headley	102	5.3	42	4
Tyler Saladino	85	5.3	42	5
Cesar Hernandez	113	7.6	41	4
David Peralta	102	5.6	40	4
Dee Gordon	111	8.8	39	8
Jacoby Ellsbury	95	5.7	38	8
Eduardo Nunez	105	5.5	38	8
Nick Castellanos	117	6.5	37	1
Paul Goldschmidt	122	5.3	37	7
Josh Reddick	91	5.1	37	2
Max Kepler	92	6.8	36	1
Xander Bogaerts	88	6.1	36	2
Eugenio Suarez	99	5.9	36	1
Travis Shaw	106	5.8	36	2
Jonathan Villar	125	5.2	36	6
Andrew McCutchen	107	5.1	35	3
Chris Owings	101	7.1	34	8
Jose Reyes	104	7	34	3
Dexter Fowler	114	6	34	1
Gregory Polanco	91	5.4	34	6
Elvis Andrus	107	6	33	7
Carlos Gomez	118	5.8	33	4
Todd Frazier	78	5.7	32	2
Jose Peraza	105	6.1	31	8
Devon Travis	91	5.3	31	2
Wil Myers	121	6.3	30	4
Freddy Galvis	98	5.6	30	2
Billy Hamilton	113	8.4	29	14
Jarrod Dyson	99	6.6	29	10
Kolten Wong	85	5.8	28	3
Byron Buxton	82	5.2	28	3
Brandon Phillips	89	5.1	28	6
Ender Inciarte	115	6.9	27	7
Addison Russell	107	6.6	27	2
Tim Beckham	95	6.3	27	1
Tim Anderson	106	5.6	27	2
Aaron Judge	99	6.8	26	1
Danny Valencia	86	5.1	25	1
Domingo Santana	93	5.5	24	3
Orlando Arcia	91	5.1	23	2
Joey Gallo	102	8.3	19	4

A few guys stand out:

•Freddie Freeman is taking advantage of his opportunities because he has never attempted more than eight steals in any season yet has already attempted a steal six times. He is part of the charge in Atlanta that is doing well on the bases, though most are unlike Freeman as they are not seeing many opportunities. It is always good when a first baseman is running, and Paul Goldschmidt may have some company in the double-digit stolen base club this season

•Brad Miller has had a ton of opportunities because he is leading the league in walks while he is struggling to replicate the power from last year. Yet, he is not running, which has been the theme for him since leaving the Mariners where he stole 13 bags in 2015. It is not like Kevin Kiermaier or Evan Longoria are clogging the bases in front of him, so this lack of mobility by Miller is a thing because the team just is not running. Part of that is that the fastest guy, Kiermaier, is not hitting, but the team is once again struggling to generate offense when on the road but are not looking to steals to help that.

•Ian Kinsler might finally be showing his age on the bases. He has swiped double-digit bags in every season of his career. We are one-sixth into the 2017 season and Kinsler has attempted just one more stolen base than you or I have this season, and it is not because of a lack of opportunities. Another factor in play is Detroit has been terrible as a team converting just nine of 17 attempts, so Brad Ausmus may stop running and rely on the bats in the lineup for extra-base hits unless fans in the stands start yelling "GO" at the baserunners.

•Cesar Hernandez has had a number of opportunities, but has attempted just four steals. On the plus side, he has converted three of those successfully, but he may be being held back because he was just 17 of 30 last season. If this new success rate puts him back in the good graces of the coaches, perhaps Hernandez gets on the move again. As it were, he is having a pretty good season already.

Given that power is yet again on the rise (a homer every 32.1 PA) this season, the stolen base could continue to decline. That means we will have to work even harder to find those hidden sources of steals or be ready to pay full value for those rock solid sources of steals later in the season when you wait too long to address your speed needs.