MLB Barometer: Assessing the Fantasy Outfield Pool

Last week, we kicked off this two-part variation on the Barometer with an in-depth look at the infield positions. This week, our focus turns to the vast and constantly evolving world of the outfielders.

Playing 150-plus games in six months is a grueling endeavor. Although some of the league's best hitters appear larger than life, they are all human, after all. The heat waves and slumps are natural over the course of a long season. Just remember to step away and view the landscape from a macro point of view. This month's Marcell Ozuna, Adam Jones and Jay Bruce could be Jason Heyward, Lorenzo Cain and Andrew McCutchen in July.

Without further ado, your comprehensive rest-of-season outfield guide.

The Elite

Earning Value:Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, George Springer, Starling Marte

It should come as no surprise that all members of this elite quartet ranking among the statistical leaders were first- or second-round picks (top 24 ADP) in drafts this year. The NFBC Player Rater ranks them among the top-10 outfielders – Mookie Betts (1), Mike Trout (2), Starling Marte (3), George Springer (9), if you exclude Ian Desmond and Wil Myers because of they were primarily drafted as SS and 1B respectively. Betts is on pace for more homers (30-plus) than steals, but those end-of-season totals will likely balance out to somewhere between 25 and 30 per category.

Trout has maintained value by running more as he promised us this spring (10 SB). I'd project Trout to stay on pace on the base paths (10 to 15 more) with a major surge in power on his way to a top three major league finish in runs, homers and RBI. Springer and Marte look like they will be early round staples for years to come. Marte is the better all-around hitter and is in early contention for the NL batting crown.

Springer, of course, has more power but is less consistent. But the Astros' best days will come with the warmer weather as the Springer-Jose Altuve combo could be the best one-two punch atop a lineup in the majors.

Falling Short: Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen

Bryce Harper falls just outside of this group because of a frigid run of .235 with six HR since May 1. Most of us are not concerned about him climbing back toward the top. Only injury would hold him back.

The other two early picks – Stanton and McCutchen – are off to subpar starts and their owners have good reason to worry since it is no longer "early."

Through 12 weeks, Andrew McCutchen is posting a sub-10 percent walk rate and a strikeout rate higher than 20 percent for the first time in his career. The 25-percent K rate is more than eight points worse than his career mark. Cutch has complained of discomfort in his right thumb since spring training and it has clearly affected his swing. If he is truly less than full strength, it would be difficult to imagine him producing elite-level numbers this year. But I wouldn't count Cutch out from coming close to reaching value and having a strong second half. At least if his two bombs off Kenta Maeda on Saturday was any indication.

Giancarlo Stanton had a horrendous first two-and-a-half months, including a .173/.287/.661 May and a career-high 34-percent K rate, but is starting to heat up. Stanton's 2015 ended with a Ruthian 27 home runs in 318 plate appearances before the injury. An insane enough pace to consider 14 homers in 256 plate appearances a considerable disappointment. Keep in mind that Stanton's hard-hit rate and HR/FB rate from 2015 were outliers and that those rates for 2016 are closer in line with his first five major league seasons. It looks like his batting average won't help his owners, but we really never expected it to. The Marlins have one of the best lineup that fans have seen in years, even with Dee Gordon out. This should help boost his run and RBI numbers into respectability, even if he falls short on his expected first-round value. The window on any buy-low opportunities is rapidly closing.

The Next Level

25-60 ADP:Jose Bautista, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Yoenis Cespedes, Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton

Many panicked and prematurely declared Justin Upton "toast." Making adjustments to the American League took Upton longer than expected, but in June, only Adam Jones and Jay Bruce have been more productive. Upton has always been a streaky hitter. We can expect another prolonged slump at some other point in the season. For now, he's stepped up with some much-needed production with the Tigers missing slugger J.D. Martinez for at least six weeks.

I was tempted to include Charlie Blackmon among the group of elite, but his spring ADP lies at the beginning of the third round in 12-team leagues. Batting first for the Rockies is worth its weight in gold, especially for a guy who contributes across the board. Although, if I had to choose between Blackmon and Springer rest-of-season, I'd probably still take Springer because of his upside.

Among the trio of Carlos Gonzalez, Yoenis Cespedes and Nelson Cruz, I expect the most production out of Cespedes. His late-season surge in 2015 was other-wordly. At some point, the Mets' offense will begin to pull itself out of from the cellar, though that might coincide with the return of Lucas Duda or the addition of a big bat at the trade deadline. With Cruz and CarGo, the concern is mostly that they have been extremely injury prone in their careers. Cruz turns 36 next month, but there have been no annual hamstring flare-ups the last two seasons. Because we never know what categories he's going to help us in, CarGo is a tough cat (pun intended) to predict. Last season, he displayed massive power on his way to helping fantasy owners clinch titles. But it came at the expense of his batting average. This season, he is hitting higher than .300, but you can feel the slump coming. It's all ebbs and flows over the course of what is a long regular season.

Lorenzo Cain has slumped hard in June, but those tides should turn soon. After hitting six HR with 25 RBI in May, Cain is managing a paltry .247 BA in June with no homers. He has a strong split against lefties (.386 vs. LHP, .250 vs. RHP) and on the road (.301 away, .254 home). The home-road split has little significance as those numbers should move closer toward one another. Cain's home-road split last year was .337 to .278 with the advantage at home. Nevertheless, Cain stays in our lineup regardless of any split. He is heavily off-pace last season's numbers, but that should come as no surprise after his strong season in the middle of a championship lineup.

Tier 2 Value Earners:Gregory Polanco, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Kemp, Mark Trumbo, Marcell Ozuna, Jay Bruce, Khris Davis, Kole Calhoun

Gregory Polanco has flat-out earned "Tier 1" status, ranking fifth in OF offense, but has not yet deserved to have his name included with the Trouts and Harpers of the league. Let's see if he can maintain that pace these last three months. Polanco has just nine stolen bases, which puts him off-pace from last season's 27, but he has more than made up for the deficiency elsewhere, including gains from last season in walk-rate (from 8.4 to 12 percent), ISO (.125 to .221) and hard-hit rate (30.3 to 36.4 percent).

Matt Kemp, Mark Trumbo and Jay Bruce are the three vets of this group. Kemp's 0.12 walk-to-strikeout rate is by far the worst of his career, but he could well surpass 30 HR for just the second time in his career. Trumbo was discussed with the first baseman last week. The move to Camden is a match made in power hitter heaven. Bruce is the most surprising of the group. He leads all outfielders in RBI and is hitting .280 as of Saturday's games. His average should settle in somewhere above his career .250 mark after hurting fantasy owners with a .224 average the last two seasons.

Stephen Piscotty and Marcell Ozuna were the two best OF values taken between the 15th and 18th rounds, on average, in 12-teamers this spring. Piscotty has cooled recently, but is emerging as the team's best contact hitter, taking on the Matt Holliday role. Ozuna has already matched his run and RBI total from last season, in 50 fewer games. His .320 BA is fueled by a BABIP near .360. I still expect to him to end the year around .300 and top 30 HR for the first time in his career.

Falling Short: Jason Heyward, Christian Yelich, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gomez, Adam Eaton

Christian Yelich falls into this category because his 35 R and 36 RBI through Saturday's game are below par for a No. 3 hitter and because he lacks sufficient pop. His batting average has taken a dip as well. After hitting .346 with an eye-popping .471 OBP in April, Yelich is hitting less than .300 since May 1. When I go to Vegas for the RotoWire company trip in a couple weeks, I'll be looking for the NL batting crown prop bet and plan to throw down a few bucks on him.

Words can't describe what a disappointment Yasiel Puig has been. After maintaining that I would not touch Puig no matter his ADP this winter, the Dodger fan in me was convinced to grab a couple shares. The talent never worried me. It was the hamstring issues and lack of personal discipline. As of this writing, Corey Seager is the only Dodger hitting higher than .270 this season. I'm keeping my expectations low on Puig, so if he can work his way up from hitting eighth and provide a couple of solid stretches like I believe he's capable of, I'll consider it a minor win.

Carlos Gomez is arguably the biggest non-injury bust among the top-60 overall picks. I took the suggestion of my NFBC Main Event partner Andrew Moody, who made sure to avoid Gomez altogether this spring, believing that his fall from grace would occur with a large thump. So far, it looks like Moody nailed this one as Gomez's 65-percent contact rate is the second lowest in baseball among hitters with 200 plate appearances, after Giancarlo Stanton's 62.

Adam Eaton's ADP of 108 was a steep one despite scoring 98 runs in 2015 and hitting .287 and .300 over the past two seasons. So far, he has fallen short of expectations, scoring 37 runs and slugging just three homers. The majority of folks who believed his 14 HR last year was an outlier look to be correct.

The Surprises

Expect to Maintain:Odubel Herrera, Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Saunders, Trayce Thompson, Nomar Mazara

Odubel Herrera and Jackie Bradley Jr. have been two of the season's most pleasant surprises, though Herrera remains far more under the national radar. Of course, Herrera was a Rule 5 pick and Bradley a first-rounder. They are two of only 19 outfielders with a double-digit walk rate, and Herrera's 13-percent rate ranks fifth among outfielders.

With Michael Saunders, it's all about staying off the disabled list. If he can play the full season, Saunders will provide top 20 OF stats. Most impressive about the lefty is his .301 BA and .386 OBP against southpaws.

Trayce Thompson has fallen on hard times in June (.211/.309/.732) after a solid May (.270/.352/.955). He has maintained his power, but is starting to lose at-bats. Dropping him in 12-teamers won't kill you.

Nomar Mazara's pace has slowed the last few weeks, but it's expected for the 21-year old in his first season in the majors. I'm not certain he will be perennial All-Star, but only time will tell. His value lies in his ability to hold onto a premier lineup slot in the Rangers' lineup.

Expect to Drop Off:Rajai Davis, Melvin Upton Jr., Adam Duvall, Carlos Beltran

Forgive me for not buying Rajai Davis and Melvin Upton Jr.'s ability to keep up their pace as top-10 outfielders. Given the choice, I'd rather have Davis, even if he drops to ninth in the lineup against righties. Davis has never had a season with double-digit home runs, but 2016 will easily mark his first. Davis ranks second in the majors in stolen bases and Upton seventh. Upton should hit on his fourth 20/20 season, but the potential batting average drag is most worrisome.

Adam Duvall and Carlos Beltran rank among the top five in the majors in home runs, both on pace to hit 40-plus. Expect both to fall short. Duvall's 26-percent HR/FB rate is third in baseball and is unsustainable. Neither is his league-leading .336 ISO. Beltran will eventually feel every one of his 39 years as his owners will hope he can make it through the rest of the season unscathed.

The Backend (OF4 and 5)

The Vets:Melky Cabrera, Matt Holliday, Shin-Soo Choo, Jayson Werth, Cameron Maybin, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dexter Fowler, Denard Span

Punchless Speed:Ben Revere, Ender Inciarte, Billy Hamilton, Leonys Martin, Billy Burns, Coco Crisp, Angel Pagan, Kevin Pillar, Byron Buxton, Travis Jankowski, Mallex Smith

The list of vets are far from exciting because of the low upside, but it also makes it easier to determine their floor. Shin-Soo Choo and Cameron Maybin have the most promise of the group and are in prime run-producing spots in their respective lineups. So is Jayson Werth, who often hits ahead of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy in the Nats' lineup. Curtis Granderson is a guy I'm happy I don't own anywhere. His sub-.220 BA is a crusher for someone who consistently gets five plate appearances per game. Moreover, he no longer provides value with his legs and is essentially a one-trick pony with the home runs.

I went on a tweet-a-thon about Ender Inciarte last week and highlighted him in a Barometer earlier this month, advising to pick him up. The hamstring injury is clearly behind him as Inciarte has picked up the pace on the base paths – four steals in his past 11 games including two this weekend. He is hitting a respectable .270 in June and should continue to provide some value ahead of Freddie Freeman in the Braves' lineup. Unfortunately, teammate Mallex Smith's SB surge was halted by a thumb injury that will keep him out at least two months, making him easily droppable in all formats 15-team and below.

Travis Jankowski was the popular speed target this weekend, having the opportunity to leadoff for the Padres and stealing four bags last week. The issue is their primary center fielder, Jon Jay, may avoid a DL stint and be back in the lineup soon. It's more than likely that those who just added Jankowski may have missed his best week.

As for Byron Buxton, it looks like I was wrong – he's not ready to consistently contribute to a major league offense. But the only way to learn is to do it against big-league pitching. The Twins need to continue to play him consistently and see if he can evolve into the stud that scouts expected him to be.

One of the hottest hitters in baseball is Angel Pagan. He hit a grand slam earlier in the week and is in the midst of a eight-game hitting streak (as of Monday). He is a player fantasy managers can just leave in their lineups as long as he is healthy. His 30-SB days are over, but he can chip in another 12 bags or so.

Ben Revere has been a big disappointment, but I'd venture to say there are better days ahead. He got hurt on Opening Day and missed nearly a full month. Since then, he's been hitting a paltry .202 with only seven bags. All of Revere's peripheral stats, including his BB-rate and K-rate are on par with what we have seen the last few seasons. I truly believe the career .290 hitter will heat up soon and provide disappointed owners with the SB and BA for which they paid. Update: Three steals and counting against the Mets on Monday. Burn, baby, burn.

The same probably can't be said for Billy Burns, whose leadoff gig was usurped by veteran Coco Crisp. Burns is arguably the fastest player in the league, but has seen his walk-rate decrease (from 5 to 3 percent) this season. Can't steal bases if you can't get on base. He is nearly impossible to trust in 12-team lineups, though I can't advocate dropping him just yet. A hot streak coupled with a Crisp injury could vault him back into a fantasy contributor, albeit in just one, maybe two categories.

The Rest of the (Out)Field

Don't Forget About:Miguel Sano, Corey Dickerson, Alex Gordon, Josh Reddick, Randal Grichuk

The above list includes five first-half disappointments (some injury-related) from whom I expect improved second halves.

Corey Dickerson is better than this. He is carrying a career-high 26-percent strikeout rate into the 13th week, contributing only via the longball. Typically an easy out for southpaws, Dickerson is hitting near the Mendoza Line against both lefties and righties. The latter against whom he should improve. Dickerson's wrist is bothering him and it could cost him a few games.

Josh Reddick is back this week. When healthy, he is the A's most consistent hitter providing ample pop and mixing in a few steals. Prior to his injury, Reddick was hitting .322.

Randal Grichuk is working on his swing in Triple-A. I expect him to return after the All-Star break with a bang and pop 15 homers and improving his batting average up from .206 to the .240-.250 range.

Missing Pieces:Peter O'Brien, Yasmany Tomas, Jorge Soler, Steve Pearce, Steven Souza Jr.

If you follow me on Twitter, you know that when I'm not tweeting about Inciarte, I'm singing POB's praises. Manager Chip Hale can probably only take his ineptitude at the plate for another week or two before demoting him for additional seasoning. Clearly, O'Brien carries a big stick, but a .140 average with a 20:2 K:BB rate is as bad as it gets. Jorge Soler will have to fight for at-bats when he returns to the lineup. I can't blame you if you can't hold a roster spot for him in your 12-team leagues. Steve Pearce is eligible at three positions in NFBC and most formats. That is where most of his value comes from. If you own him in 15-teamers, you've got to hold on, but I can't blame you for dropping him in 12s since he is not likely to return until after the All-Star break.

Platoon Splits:Brandon Moss, Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, Colby Rasmus, Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez, Seth Smith, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Raburn, Chris Young, Kike Hernandez, Hyun Soo Kim

Brandon Moss is still one of the best sluggers in baseball, but only gets into the lineup against righties. He is a near auto-start against bottom-of-the-rotation right-handed pitchers in DFS.

It's sad to see Michael Conforto and Joc Pederson in a platoon-split category, but that's what it has come to. I added Conforto for $15 in one of my NFBC 12-teamers and will have him keep my bench warm until he returns to the majors.

Only Marcell Ozuna is hitting lefties better than Ryan Rua, who heads into Week 13 with a .400 BA against southpaws. Chris Young has always had a strong lefty split and is hitting .340 against them this year, but just hit the disabled list. Hyun-Soo Kim and Seth Smith are only in the lineup against right-handers and are best used for DFS.

Deep Leagues/One-Week Rentals:Michael Taylor, Tyler Naquin, Steven Moya, Jeff Francoeur, Jon Jay, Ichiro Suzuki, Norichika Aoki, Avisail Garcia, Gregor Blanco, Max Kepler, Kelly Johnson, Chris Coghlan, Kirk Nieuwenhuis