MLB Barometer: Decisions, Decisions

My intention was to kick off this week's Barometer with another topic, but the self-inflicted gut punch has left me short of breath. See, I own Jose Berrios on three of seven NFBC teams. He wasn't a huge target heading into the season, but I expected a strong start upon early promotion. Moreover, there always seemed to be a spot in my draft where the upside of stashing Berrios over mediocre starting pitchers felt like the right move. As we've all been witness to, Berrios has struggled in the majors since being called up, walking too many batters and wrapping up fastballs in the zone like early Christmas presents.

Looking ahead at the schedule this past weekend, it was quite clear that a Berrios two-step of at Detroit … vs. Toronto was as dangerous as they come. Especially for a struggling rookie with shaky control. I decided that Berrios would be riding the pine on all three teams this week despite the fact that all of them were hurting in the wins and strikeouts categories. At least that was the plan.

Except that as the deadline grew closer on Monday, I started to second-guess myself and thought maybe it was worth risking some ratio damage for a few extra strikeouts and perhaps a win or two. I sat Berrios on two of those teams, including the "Beat Jeff Erickson" league I share with Jeff. We opted for a single Wei-Yin Chen road outing against the Phillies. But on my most important squad – a first place RotoWire OC I drafted in-person in Las Vegas – I got greedy and went against my better judgement. I'm actually not even sure greedy is the right word. I didn't plan properly in FAAB on Sunday night, hoarding a collection of stud hitters on my bench and didn't bid on a spot start. My only options were Jake Odorizzi at Toronto and Taijuan Walker at Baltimore – neither of which were ideal on paper.

Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but I literally felt myself making the mistake as I put Berrios back in my lineup minutes before his 0.2 IP implosion of 7 ER and 4 BB. Worst of all, my hitting/pitching points split was 52 hitting, 22 pitching. Not only are my wins and strikeouts low, but my ratios are hanging out near the bottom of the league as well. This outing definitely stung, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Berrios gets sent down before his weekend start. That could even end up being a blessing if Monday's outing was any indication.Tuesday Update: Berrios demoted, no surprise.

Several of the best NFBC players whom I call friends have a similar theory with borderline waiver wire starting pitchers. If you're not going to throw them for a two-start week, why own them? I understand their point of view, but there are always individual cases where a SP has two starts against powerful offenses in hitter-friendly parks, or they're going through a tough spell and you don't necessarily want to release them to the wolves. Derek Holland is another guy who comes to mind. He lined up for at Oakland, at Houston this week after serving up 15 ER in five innings to the Blue Jays and White Sox. Holland is another example of a guy some of us think is capable of being 12-team worthy, but we don't necessarily like the alternatives in FAAB and can afford to sit him.

Nevertheless, my decision was both crushing and humbling. Especially since I technically hedged on Berrios by benching him on two squads but playing him on the one I was most heavily invested in. It's my sob story to remind you, once again, to always trust your instincts. Had Berrios thrown a gem from my bench tonight I'd feel much better about it than my current state of regret, going against my gut. We can't always say that our initial instinct is the right one, but I bet it is more times than it isn't. It's better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all. Or something like that.

RISERS

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS)

Bradley Jr. is the hottest hitter in baseball right now, doing most of his damage from the bottom of the Red Sox' lineup. Last week, Bradley hit .469 with three home runs, leading all major league hitters with 15 RBI. He's in the midst of a 21-game hitting streak, the longest of his career and of the major league season. The former first-round pick of the 2011 draft displayed flashes of brilliance last season. Specifically, between August 7 and September 7 where he hit .422 (38 for 90) with seven home runs and 32 RBI. That included a five RBI performance on August 9, followed by a two home run, seven RBI effort the following week. From September 7 through the end of the season, Bradley slumped badly, hitting just .140 down the stretch. It's probably not fair to assume that Bradley is going to hit a wall (figuratively, of course) and follow up his hot streak with a prolonged slump similar to last season. But it also would not be reasonable for us to believe that Bradley is the league's biggest new star and that he'll end the year as a top 15 outfielder. Bradley was a pedigreed prospect who remained under the limelight because of bigger hyped prospects like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, but possesses an array of skills – plate patience, surprisingly sneaky power, speed and solid defense. If you own him, enjoy the hot streak while it lasts, and perhaps expect another one sometime this summer. But I'd be hesitant to trade a slumping veteran like Justin Upton for him. On the flip side, if you can rid your team of Carlos Gomez for Bradley's services, click over to your league page and pull the trigger on that deal now.

Jonathan Villar (SS, MLW)

Villar was drafted this spring at an ADP of 317 as the 24th shortstop off the board, mostly as a bench fill-in for teams light on speed. Expectations were low, as most of us didn't expect Villar to hold off minor league prospect Orlando Arcia for this long. Instead, Villar is one of the most valuable fantasy players of the first six weeks, hitting .296 with a .397 OBP and tied with Pirates' Starling Marte for the National League lead in stolen bases with 11. Last week, Villar hit .414 (12 for 29) with three stolen bases and has nestled in comfortably hitting ahead of Ryan Braun in the two-hole with occasional duty at the top of the lineup. Villar has always hit better against left-handed pitchers (.333 in 42 AB this season), but has raised efforts against RHP this season, hitting .277 in 82 AB compared to .229 against righties the past three seasons combined. Villar's hot start creates a good problem for the Brewers. It's hard to imagine Villar keeping this up all season. It's probably only a matter of time until he sputters on a cold streak and provides a window of opportunity for an Arcia promotion. Until that time, those who own Villar should continue to play him and pile up those stolen bases in what could very well be the most unstable roto category.

Matt Wisler (SP, ATL)

Wisler's availability on 12-team waiver wires has been dwindling over the last few weeks as his hot start has earned the trust of fantasy leaguers. Wisler was a Padre's seventh-round draft pick in 2011, drafted right out of high school after finishing with a 0.17 ERA in 42 IP in his senior season. He was the key piece to the Craig Kimbrel trade last April, was promoted from Triple-A in mid-June and pitched 109 inauspicious innings of under six strikeouts-per-nine and a 4.71 ERA. He did end the year strong, collecting wins in three consecutive quality starts including his final start of the year – an 8.2 IP shutout of the Cardinals. Wisler has parlayed that late rookie season success with a strong start. An extreme flyball pitcher, Wisler has maintained a WHIP under 1.00 over seven starts and one relief appearance – a converted save earlier this season. His 36 percent groundball rate hovers a touch above last year's 34 percent. Wisler is just 23 years old and has a bright future in the majors, though he will never profile as a true ace. His strikeout-rate will always hover below the league average rate, and he'll occasionally get popped by big bats taking him deep. A low k-rate and bad offensive support will keep him on the fringe of being dropped after bad outings. That's when you swoop and pick your spots with him in your lineup.

Alex Wood (SP, LAD)

It feels like a long time since Wood was good. But it was just two years ago, as a 23-year old, that Wood carried an ERA under 3.00 (2.78 to be exact) and averaged a strikeout per inning. The 2015 season brought mixed results, especially after coming to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. He managed a mediocre 5-6 record with 4.35 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 70.1 IP with the Blue Crew. Those mixed results carried into April of this season. He allowed five earned runs to the Giants in his first start and another five against the Rockies three starts later. We can't blame most pitchers for struggling at Coors Field, but there was a short period of time where many of us Wood owners considered dropping him, and I'm sure the Dodgers' management privately considered moving him to the bullpen. But those who have held on have been rewarded. Wood regained some of the magic via the punch-out over his last few starts, striking out 30 over his last 24.1 innings (four starts) and allowing just two earned runs and three walks in two starts last week. It's a very small sample, but his home-road splits couldn't be anymore defined. Wood is 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA in four home starts and 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA on the road. Depending on your other options, starting Wood against the Padres this week might be a tough decision. I opted to start Wood on the two teams where I own him, believing that he's growing confident in his stuff and that he'll improve on his struggles away from Dodger Stadium. If he chokes this week, then feel free to reinstall the "start him at home, sit him on the road" plan.

Robbie Ray (SP, ARI)

Ray reminds me of Andrew Cashner. Ray is a southpaw and doesn't throw as hard as Cashner, but both seem to teeter unpredictably between high-strikeout/sloppy control to low-strikeout/refined control. Ray wasn't as revered of a prospect with the Nationals; he was drafted in the 12th round in 2012. He pitched a very mediocre 100 innings with the Tigers' Triple-A club (4.22 ERA, 6.73 K/9) in 2014 and continued those struggles in six big league starts (8.16 ERA, 5.97 K/9) upon promotion. Ray adjusted his approach on the mound with the Diamondbacks last season, with slightly increased fastball velocity and an all-around solid season – 3.52 ERA and 8.39 strikeouts-per-nine. Ray performed well in spring training this year and earned the fifth spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation. His ERA was hovering above 5.00 after failing to reach five IP in two late-April starts against the Pirates and Rockies. Ray served up four homers in that home start against the Rockies. His latest two performances on the mound hint at a borderline 12-teamer who can be streamed for road starts and help with strikeouts. He struck out nine Rockies in four innings at Coors Field and followed that up with a quality start against the Yankees on Monday – 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. He carried a strong road split into his latest outing, posting an 8.31 ERA at Chase Field and 2.82 away from it. Ray is far from trustworthy. And we're not even sure of his identity as a starting pitcher. He runs high pitch counts early and often. What we do know is that Ray is currently among the major league leaders in strikeouts-per-nine with 11. That in and of itself is a good reason to make sure Ray isn't still hanging out on the waiver wire.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Hanley Ramirez (1B, BOS)

Hanley is one of my guys this year. A player I targeted a round ahead of his ADP and with whom I intend to ride through the good times and bad. He flexed some muscle early last season, hitting 10 homers in April before running into a wall (literally) in early May, and was never the same all season. This April, Ramirez hit just one home run, but maintained a steady .284 batting average. Heading into Week 7, Ramirez is hitting .319 with four homers and four stolen bases. Last week, he hit .464 and scored nine runs. Ramirez is on pace to strike out in more than 20 percent of his plate appearances for the first time in his career, but it's part of the shift in his approach. His career-high of 33 home runs from 2008 will be tough to repeat, but 25 or more is within a reach with a hot stretch. Hitting fifth in baseball's premier lineup thus far, and behind David Ortiz, Ramirez has been seeing good pitches and should continue to rake.

Corey Seager (SS, LAD)

Seager had a monster series against the Cardinals, swatting three home runs with four RBI over his last two games. He hit .407 for the week against some of the toughest starting pitchers in baseball (Cardinals and Mets staff), a nice lift-off for the lefty phenom who struggled in April. It's interesting to note that so many fantasy players (myself included) were a tad weary of the three studly shortstops being drafted at a reasonably high cost in redraft leagues. In addition to Seager and his 59 ADP, Xander Bogaerts (ADP: 58) and Francisco Lindor (ADP: 66) rounded out the troika that, along with Carlos Correa, represent an immensely bright future at the shortstop position. Keep in mind that Bogaerts actually had the third-most hits in the majors last season in just his second full season, and expectations for Lindor and Seager have always been high as they've worked their way up through the minors. All have been performing to expectations, and it's yet another reminder that we can't always default to a stubborn and old-school way of thinking with young hitters. Especially those with a strong work ethic and advantageous lineup slots on good teams.

Sam Dyson (RP, TEX)

An early (and hopefully not premature) congrats to those of you who identified another situation where the cream rises to the top. It's always difficult to carry a closer-in-waiting with a short bench, but that's what a good chunk of teams in NFBC Main Event 15-team leagues did. Dyson notched a save on Sunday after shaky closer Shawn Tolleson (7.07 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) blew his third save on Saturday. Dyson hasn't officially been named the guy, but that didn't stop 13 new NFBC Main Event teams from winning bids on him with an average price of $180 (a high of $313). Dyson was used often in important situations in the playoffs last year, prompting folks to speculate on Dyson receiving save opportunities over Keone Kela (prior to injury) once Tolleson faltered. It appears that his time is upon us. The fourth year player boasts sparkling ratios (1.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) despite a low k-rate (18 percent) and should hold the job going forward.

Trevor Bauer (SP, CLE)

It's been four years, but I'll never forget my grave Bauer mistake. I was infatuated with the prospect and drafted him near the end of my 30-round NFBC Main Event draft in 2012, figuring he was worth holding onto for when he burst on the scene. I remember it vividly. It was the fourth week of the season and a leaguemate dropped Mike Trout. Trout disappointed as a late-season call-up as a rookie hitting .220 in 40 games. Though Trout piqued my interest, I refused to drop Bauer off my then-first place team, throwing a tepid $38 bid on Trout – just to "keep 'em honest" but not enough to actually get him and risk losing Bauer. As they say, the rest is history. Bauer finally got the call by the Diamondbacks at the end of June and pitched four uninspiring starts, failing to pitch past four innings in three of them. Trout hit .326 with 30 homers and the guy who added him (an NFBC Hall-of-Famer, no less) ended up passing me in the standings in mid-May and won our league by 20 points over second place. But you can't hold grudges in fantasy. Bauer is fantasy relevant again because of his spot in the Indians' rotation, his live arm (94 mph fastball) and a strikeout rate north of 25 percent. The zebra has yet to change his stripes with his high walk-rate and occasional explosions. But Bauer is still a young guy and is someone I believe can put it all together over the course of a whole season. Why not this year?

FALLERS

Cesar Hernandez (2B, PHI)

Hernandez is another one of my guys this season. I'm still patiently waiting. In fact, I opted to drop Jayson Werth in some NFBC leagues instead of Hernandez this week. I have no problem with Werth. It's because I have plenty of depth in the OF and he was expendable. If one of my middle infielders gets hurt this week, I'd be taking zeroes if I had chosen to drop Hernandez instead since I don't have other MI backups. We never want to take zeroes. Perhaps it's that stubbornness rearing its ugly head again. After last season's impressive run, I expect Hernandez to start hitting the base paths harder soon. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old Venezuelan's decision-making in that regard has been horrendous thus far. Last season, he stole 19 bases in 452 plate appearances and was caught five times. This season, Hernandez has been caught five times in seven attempts. A pace that would cause almost any other team in baseball to halt the green light. There's no making excuses for his efforts there. But on his behalf, Hernandez hasn't been able to get into much of a rhythm, riding pine a couple of games per week and hitting from every lineup slot except third, fourth and fifth. With stolen bases down across the league compared to previous seasons, it may not hurt to stash Hernandez in deeper leagues, if you have the room. Sometimes the best values are found at the bottom of the heap where no one else is looking.

Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)

The best performance Teixeira has delivered over the last month was a well-acted cameo appearance on the Showtime drama Billions. Otherwise, 2016 has been a struggle for the 36-year-old slugger. Last week, Teixeira collected just three hits and one walk in 21 plate appearances, and wasn't in the starting lineup in back-to-back games mid-week. He has struggled mightily in the power department, slugging his last home run on April 13. It's a little surprising considering Teix hits in such a cush spot in the Yankees' lineup and appears relatively healthy. The lone bright spot in his game is that he's taking his fair share of free passes to first base. He has a walk-rate of nearly 15 percent, though even that has taken a dip lately. Teixeira was a great late-round value last season, as he crushed 31 home runs in 111 games. A repeat would be difficult, though sporadic power surges can happen without warning for bats of Teixeira's ilk. He will look to get back on track with a series in the friendly confines of Chase Field, followed by a four-game series in Oakland.

Jorge Soler (OF, CHC)

The 24-year-old Cuban continues to struggle despite finding his way into the starting lineup almost every day for the Cubs. Soler has hit just four extra-base hits (two homers, two doubles) and is batting a paltry .174 through the first six weeks. He's striking out in a quarter of his at-bats this year. Despite his struggles, there's no indication that Soler will be demoted any time soon. Theo Epstein said that, "over time he's going to get plenty of at-bats, he's going to get hot and he's going to carry us." With Kyle Schwarber out for the season and no bona fide minor league outfielders pressing for promotion, Cubs fans and fantasy owners will have to weather the storm. Soler can ride your team's pine for now, but there will be some waves of production that will make us forget about his early-season woes.

Justin Turner (3B, LAD)

Turner has failed to live up to expectations early on, hitting just .240 with a .654 OPS and one home run through the first six weeks. The late-bloomer credited former 2013 Mets' teammate Marlon Byrd with shifting his approach at the plate. A change that resulted in a productive 109 games with the Dodgers during which he hit .340 with a .404 OBP. Turner then followed that up with a solid 2015, hitting .294 with 16 homers. Turner made a push up draft boards over the last two weeks of March when we all realized he was really going to hit third in the Dodgers' lineup. Turner continues to be an enigmatic presence in the Dodgers' clubhouse but will soon need to reignite that magic at the plate. Perhaps a date with Jered Weaver on Tuesday helps get him back on track.

David Wright (3B, NYM)

Fantasy owners knew the risk they'd be taking as a Wright owner this season. Diagnosed with spinal stenosis, Wright would be deemed "lucky" to play in more than 125 games this season. This of course was reflected in his draft day price – an ADP of 247 – that of a bench CI you could swing into your lineup with the right matchups. But the all too occasional days off makes it difficult for fantasy teams with weekly lineup changes. Wright has had some big performances at the plate this season, but the bad ones have been more frequent recently. Last week, Wright rode the pine for two of the seven games and collected just two hits in 23 plate appearances, striking out 11 times. The man with a .297 career average is falling off a cliff quickly, hitting .229 with a strikeout-rate nearing 33 percent – a rate that's nine points higher than his worst effort of 24 percent back in 2010. When Wright is in the lineup, he hits second. But between the days off, his strikeout-rate and his chronic back issue, we're looking at a difficult guy to own for the remainder of the season.