MLB Barometer: DFS Lessons Learned

It should come as no surprise that many of the best DFS baseball players in the world are former poker professionals. They don't have years of experience that many of us veteran season-long players have as students of the game. Sure, we could throw shade at their bombastic Twitter personas or all of their multi-entry lineup automation. But the wiser move is to learn from this new wave of successful fantasy players. And just to clarify, for those who consider DFS a millennial fad, daily fantasy is fantasy baseball as well and it's not going away anytime soon.

The main takeaway from their success (at least, the good poker players) is their analytical minds. They have the same mentality as those who consider themselves sabermetricians. They are good at math, they are good with spreadsheets and, most importantly to DFS, they are good at bankroll management.

They might not be able to hang with you in a standard 5x5 12-teamer, but on a given day's slate, they know what to look for to put themselves in the best position to win. Here is one example of a pitching metric the better DFS players rely on in addition to lineup position, park factors, home/road splits and handedness. Using these metrics can help our weekly decision-making in season-long leagues whether we're considering two similar SP5 options or deciding on our utility spot between two similar hitters.

K% instead of K/9

One other thing poker players do is they take small edges over and over again, and turn them into big profits. In online poker, you do this by playing eight or 16 tables at a time, so when you get those 55%-45% propositions, through volume, you turn it into money. In DFS, you do the same thing by entering a lot of tournaments with slightly better lineups than the rest of the field, day after day.

So what's the DFS equivalent to having A7 in Texas Hold'em, to your opponents K 10? Most people reading this column use K/9 as one of their first metrics in choosing a starting pitcher (i.e. how many strikeouts a pitcher gets per nine innings). But there is actually a better statistic available: K% (the percentage of batters a pitcher strikes out).

The difference between these two stats is if one starter goes five innings and gives up six hits, seven walks and five strikeouts (call it the Francisco Liriano special), his K/9 is 9.0. But another pitcher might Danny Duffy it for seven innings, five hits, no walks and seven Ks. His K/9 would be 9.0 as well. But if we use K% instead, the first pitcher struck out 18 percent of the 28 batters he faced, while the second pitcher struck out 27 percent of the 26 batters he faced. Which means the second pitcher is the far superior choice.

OK, the above example is admittedly extreme, and in most cases K/9 and K% will be close. But not always. And it is the smart DFS player who will use the better tool, get an edge on the pack and use it to make money. Because just as in poker, it is those small advantages, applied to a large number of cases, that separate the winning players from those just paying to have a good time.

There are other metrics I'm sure you use, but if you don't, definitely consider wOBA (weighted on-base average) for hitters as a more useful tool than OPS. Be sure to also refresh yourself on the proper way to analyze FIP, xFIP and cFIP together as indicators to help predict ERA.

So much of baseball is math-based and heavily relies upon regression to the mean. Of course, we all know that, but as the season looms on, it's easy for us to get a bit lazy and make lineup decisions based on feel. Say what you will about the flashy and sassy poker-turned-DFS guys as long as you recognize there are lessons to be learned in terms of their tenacity, focus and discipline.

RISERS

Charlie Blackmon (OF, COL)

Blackmon is on a bit of a heater. He had a monster Week 19, leading all hitters with seven home runs and 13 runs scored and a .562 average. Blackmon has pulled his average up to .324 on the season and is running a career-high .381 OBP. It's a huge bump from his career .345 rate and is due in part to an improvement in walk rate (7.2 percent compared to a career 5.5 percent rate). Blackmon heads into Week 20 as the fifth-best outfielder on the NFBC Player Rater behind Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Ian Desmond and Starling Marte. Blackmon's stolen bases are way down this season (43 last year, only 15 this year), but he's making up for it in the power department. His two bombs on Sunday puts him at 20 HR for the first time in his career (hit his 21st on Monday). His ISO is at .200 for the first time in his career, and he's maintained a career-high 35 percent hard-hit rate. In the midst of his best month of the season, Blackmon could easily drop off stat-wise for the remainder of the year and still easily earn his mid-third round ADP. So long as Blackmon remains with the Rockies next season, we're looking at one of the safest second-round hitters to draft.

Trea Turner (MI, WAS)

Turner was promoted to full-time action right before the All-Star break on July 8, and has not looked back. He quickly displaced struggling veteran Ben Revere atop the Nationals' lineup and has fit the slot and the team like a glove, rewarding fantasy owners who held on to him for three months. Turner had a nice week last week, hitting .375 with a home run, two steals and seven runs scored. Turner was the 13th overall pick of the Padres in 2014 and made his way to D.C. in a three-way deal the following winter. He will be a solid table-setter for the Nationals and is a likely candidate to rank top five among NL hitters in runs scored with a full season hitting ahead of Bryce Harper. Most important for roto, Turner's best asset is his speed. We're talking about a mature 23-year old in a strong lineup who could hit .300 or higher with 40 stolen bases and close to 100 runs scored next season. Despite the depth of the shortstop position heading into 2017 fantasy drafts, Turner's price tag will come at a premium, likely within the first 50 picks overall. Expect much of the same production-wise over these final seven weeks. In the short term, it's all systems go, especially for DFS, as the Nats head to Colorado for an early week series at Coors Field.

Keon Broxton (OF, MLW)

If you're looking to gain in the SB category and don't have Billy Hamilton, Jonathan Villar or Starling Marte, here's hoping you put in a bid in for Brewers' speedster Keon Broxton. Broxton made the club out of spring training, but played sparingly, mostly from the bottom of the lineup. With little to play for this season, the Brewers decided to give Broxton a longer look, most recently at the top of the lineup Sunday with Villar getting the day off. Recently promoted rookie shortstop Orlando Arcia occupies the No. 2 spot in the lineup between Villar and Ryan Braun, and it would take an extended slump for the Brewers to move Arcia back to the middle of the lineup. Broxton flashed some of his patented speed Sunday, stealing two bases to give him 14 in 135 plate appearances – ranking seventh in steal attempts per plate appearance for all players with a minimum of 100 PA. Broxton stole 28 in 88 games with the Pirates' Triple-A affiliate last season and has stolen 18 bags in 47 games with Triple-A Colorado Springs this season. Broxton even mixes in a bit of pop, hitting 15 Triple-A homers over two seasons of 135 games. If you've got a need for speed, Mr. Broxton is your guy.

Tyler Duffey (SP, MIN)

Baseball points leagues enthusiasts are a rare breed nowadays, but they do exist. If I asked you to guess the top-five standard fantasy point accumulators among starting pitchers, I'd guess that not a soul would get it. Here it is:

1 – Danny Duffy (81 points)
2 – Tyler Duffey (69)
3 – Dylan Bundy (67)
4 – Hisashi Iwakuma (64)
5 – tie: Tanner Roark / Kyle Hendricks (64)

Much of these point total come from wins, the least player-dependent of categories. In fact, all but Hendricks have won all three of their August starts. As for Duffey, he is making a push back into 12-team relevancy this month despite horrific ratios (5.71 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) this season. Duffey has been a reverse-splits guy, getting crushed by righties (.592 SLG) in comparison to lefties (.427 SLG). He has been a bit gracious with the longballs (1.57 HR/9) and is allowing slightly over two walks per nine innings. But Duffey's three-game August stretch has been the best of his season. Most notable is his 20:2 strikeouts-to-walk ratio over that span. Nothing is different in terms of his pitch selection or velocity over this last three games, though. Duffey's 18.6 percent HR/FB rate should continue to regress toward league average and it's quite clear that Duffey is better than his numbers indicate. He's been unlucky when you glance at his 64 percent strand rate and notice the 3.83 xFIP that's nearly two full runs below his ERA. Duffey lines up for a start against a very mediocre Royals offense and is more likely to finish the year strong than he is to be as bad as his first half.

Hisashi Iwakuma (SP, SEA)

Iwakuma owners who dared to play him in their starting lineups have been rewarded this month. Iwakuma came out victorious in all three of his outings, boasting a 17:1 K:BB. He served up three earned runs to the A's over the weekend, but threw 14.1 scoreless against two tough opponents in the Red Sox and Tigers. In fact, if you own Iwakuma, you'd probably notice that he hasn't had it easy. Nearly every week it seems like he has a matchup in the Rogers Centre or in Arlington. Every week presents paper matchup battles that we really don't want any part of. Digging in to his matchups this season, Iwakuma has faced a top 10 offense (TOR, BOS, DET, CHC, TEX, BAL) in a whopping half (12 of 24) of his starts this season! This doesn't include the 12th-ranked Astros, though the Astros are much more productive against southpaw starters. Iwakuma has received ample run support from an improved offense (14-7 record). His year-to-date peripherals (3.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) are around league average, but not exactly what Iwakuma owners expected when they drafted him at a 153 ADP – end of the 12th round in 12-team NFBC leagues. These last seven weeks won't be puppy dogs and ice cream for the 35-year-old Tokyo native, but his next three starts (at Angels, vs. Yankees, at White Sox) are much easier on the eyes.

Rick Porcello (SP, BOS)

Porcello was a dead-to-me guy in Detroit. In fact, I've never been a fan. A former first-rounder, Porcello managed a 3.96 ERA over 31 starts in his rookie year and was unable to hit below a 4.00 ERA over the following four seasons until his final year in Detroit, in 2014. It seemed as though Porcello turned a new page in his career, only to struggle again in his first season with the Red Sox last season (4.92 ERA). Although Porcello was much improved after the All-Star break, posting a 3.53 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. He was drafted with little fanfare this spring with an afterthought ADP of 326.6. His 2016 campaign is far and away the best of his career. His 3.40 ERA would be the lowest of his career if the season ended today. As would an incredibly impressive 1.05 WHIP. Porcello has managed a 15-3 record and has an opportunity to hit 20 wins. His next win would give him the most he's had in any season. Porcello's best feature as a pitcher has always been his ability to limit free passes. His 4.2 percent mark is tied with Bartolo Colon for fourth in baseball behind Clayton Kershaw's 2.0, Josh Tomlin's 3.2 and Mike Leake's 3.7 percent. Porcello has walked more than two batters only once in 23 starts. His record is not all that striking considering the offense behind him, but those ratios are, especially considering the fact he pitches in the AL East. Porcello's ADP will most definitely soar come next spring. We will still have to evaluate this season's success long and hard before we jump in at his increase price in fear of regression to the mean.

FALLERS

Brian McCann (C, NYY)

The 12-year veteran has had a phenomenal career. Excluding his rookie season, McCann has hit at least 20 home runs nine times and is just five away from his 10th such season. He has been a batting average drag for several years, though; essentially a .230 hitter over his last three seasons. His value as a top-eight catcher this season made sense as he typically bats cleanup for the Bronx Bombers. But McCann is ineffective against left-handed pitchers and has struggled at home (.212/.314/.376). The negatives have continued to pile up for McCann as the Yankees have promoted Gary Sanchez, their catcher of the future and present. Moreover, they have Austin Romine in the mix, who has been solid in limited at-bats this season. McCann has ceded to the youngsters lately, starting in just three of the team's last five games. McCann has just five hits in 33 August plate appearances and has not gone yard since July 27. With the Yankees' recent promotion of Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin, it makes sense to see the younger generation get exposure to the big leagues. Given how long McCann has been in the league, it is easy to make the assumption that he is in the twilight of his career. Despite declining skills and cranky knees, McCann is just 32 and could still have a couple more seasons of fantasy relevance if he finds a new team. Of course, that value is essentially in one category (home runs), and even then, nothing is guaranteed.

Justin Upton (OF, DET)

Upton's first stint in the junior circuit has been a disappointment, to say the least. Upton struggled out of the gate with a .221 April, hitting just two homers and striking out 38 times to just two walks. Through the first three months of the season, Upton was hitting .228 with just eight homers. He started to pick up the pace in June. Basically June and July (10 HR, 36 RBI, 6 SB) is where most of his production has come from this year. He's simply dead in the water in August, slugging .163 with just two runs scored and two runs batted in. This type of production and inconsistency makes him an easy bench option if you've got a deep team. Throwing name recognition and "where I drafted him" out of the window is an absolute must in our game. A place where our skill of patience is actually not a skill. This Upton season is akin to Justin Verlander's horrendous 2014 and Tim Lincecum's 2012 – both of whom were top 20 overall fantasy draft picks in their respective preseasons. Of course, one (Verlander) bounced back and the other (Lincecum) did not. Upton's numbers speak for themselves this year. He is hitting .230 with a sub-.300 OBP, and his walk rate (6.6 percent) and strikeout rate (30 percent) are both the worst of his career. His stock has taken a full-fledged tumble and will be properly reflected in his ADP next season. But we never know with a guy like Upton. He is still in the midst of his prime at 28. He could fade away in the path of Carlos Gomez but is much more likely to bounce back with a 25-HR, 100-RBI performance next season.

Jay Bruce (OF, NYM)

Bruce could coast for the rest of the season and still out-earn his 187 ADP. He ranks among the top 10 in HR and RBI and ranks 13th among all outfielders on the NFBC Player Rater. He is one of the streakiest hitters in baseball, and when the cold spells hit, they're usually painful. Since arriving to the Big Apple, Bruce is hitting .152 with a .235 OBP in 51 plate appearances (through Sunday's game). He hit .288 between May and June but has been hitting .204 since the break, dropping his average down to .252, near his career number (.248). He could potentially hit 40 dingers if he goes on one of his benders, but either way, the power is still the best of his career – specifically, a .529 SLG and a hard-hit rate near 38 percent. Best of all, Bruce's strikeout-rate is hovering around 20 percent, a career low. The shift in home parks is definitely a disadvantage but outside of fantasy, Bruce moves from a team out of the playoff race to one fighting for a wild-card spot. It's about time Bruce gets comfortable in his new surroundings and finishes off what looks like a career year. As a fantasy owner, there's nothing you can do but just continue to leave him in and go along for the ride.

Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT)

Cole was supposed to be one of the "safe" SP1's heading into the regular season but has fallen short of expectations due to a midseason injury. Cole was cruising through the first half of the season (5-4, 2.77 ERA) until a triceps strain landed him on the disabled list for a month. Since returning, Cole has made six starts. Three were quality ones, against the Phillies, Mariners and Braves where he allowed three total runs en route to two wins. The other three were ugly. In particular, his latest one over the weekend where the Dodgers ran Cole out in the fifth inning, combining for 12 hits against him. Cole's 3.25 ERA is respectable, but his 1.33 WHIP could turn into a career high if he keeps serving up hits and free passes. The one part of his game that has remained intact is keeping balls in the park. Cole boasts a 0.38 HR/9, allowing just three homers this season. As he moves further away from that summer injury, Cole should begin to round back into form and help the Pirates down the stretch. His ratios and win potential keeps him in the conversation for backend SP1/early SP2 next season. But without true swing-and-miss stuff, Cole's middling strikeout rate will always keep him from that elite group of starting pitchers near the top of drafts. Due in part to Cole's mediocre win-loss record this year and because of all the soaring young arms, Cole could easily fall into the fifth-round range of 12-teamers next season. Keep an eye on it, because that price right there would be a cold hard bargain.