MLB Barometer: Don't Get Caught Chasing

Two weeks into the season and we're already seeing signs of panic in the fantasy world. It's one of the most important reasons why we don't want to play draft chicken with closers and simply just pay up for saves. We had to pay a premium for the top 12 or so closers in NFBC leagues this year, and those who opted to take risks in their drafts are losing sleep and spending valuable FAAB dollars to find out if waiver-wire options will pan out.

Something definitely doesn't feel right when you look at your team through eight rounds and notice that you have two starting pitchers, two closers and only four hitters. You might worry that you're short in certain hitting categories at that point, but it always (or at least, usually) works out for you. There are hitter values to be had all throughout the rest of the draft. But if you locked in one closer and decided to wait for Sam Dyson, Jeanmar Gomez or Blake Treinen as your second, you likely left your draft feeling a little shaky and displeased. That's because not having to worry about saves – and not having to spend money all season chasing them – is one of the best feelings you can have during a fantasy season.

What ends up happening is a scenario like we had in NFBC FAAB this past Sunday: bids on Brad Brach averaging more than $200 (20 percent of our $1,000 budgets) as if Zach Britton is out for the next three months. Granted, "forearm strain" doesn't sound good, and Britton hasn't been vintage ZB this year, but folks are still spending beaucoup bucks for what may amount to a couple of saves – if he's even the guy all by himself.

What happens when Cody Bellinger or some other big-time prospect is called up and you could use the power? Or when mid-summer injuries start to hit? Or when someone in your league drops Ian Desmond and you'd like to pounce for a big chunk of your budget, but can't? When our closer situations are murky, it forces to do some down-and-dirty things. Like bidding 25% of our budgets on 40-year-old Joaquin Benoit – on the very day that he blows a save and gives up three earned runs! – even while knowing that Hector Neris is lurking to swipe that role.

People have gone closer crazy, and it's being done out of desperation because we were cheap and it didn't look good "on paper" to go back-to-back with Kelvin Herrera and Alex Colome in the sixth and seventh rounds. But our league tendencies force our hands. There's a reason why smart high-stakes folks pay up for closers. Sure, you could have punted altogether and snagged Neftali Feliz and Greg Holland late. But you know how hard it is to hit the nuts if you're skimping. There's a reason why these two were available late. Feliz does look damn good throwing triple-digit heaters. Holland again looks like the guy with back-to-back 45-plus-save seasons and has seven through two weeks. But there are no promises for the future. Feliz has a long leash, but he could go back to serving up homers in the Milwaukee summer heat, ceding the job to Corey Knebel, and Holland's arm could fall off. Not necessarily likely, but possible.

If your closer is out or is about to be out, and you're shopping for one and have an extra roster spot, do it one week early! If K-Rod is looking shaky, grab Justin Wilson. If you're starting to notice subtle signs of A.J. Ramos not being able to hold the gig all year, take Brad Ziegler – a guy Mattingly wouldn't hesitate to put into the role since he's had closing success in the past. This way, you're spending a few dollars and can afford to drop them if the current closer rights his ship. Once word is out about a closer losing his gig, it's like the Best Buy DVD bin on Black Friday in 2004. There's only one copy of Rounders left, and you're fighting with some old lady who's usually nice, but hey, it took her nearly an hour to find parking, so she's extra testy today.

So do yourself a favor next season. Don't be cheap with the closers. Don't "plan" to draft Fernando Rodney because you know you can get him late. Yes, I understand he's got four saves already, but do you understand he's got a 12.46 ERA? I truly hope Joaquin Benoit and Brad Brach work out for you, but if not, don't ask me to help push your broken closer to the gas station because I'll be cruising right by you in my vintage '88 Aroldis with my '87 Kenley already parked in my garage.

RISERS

The most important takeaway from my weekly barometer is that the list should not be skimmed for pickups and drops. A riser listed below is simply a player with a standout week who is being featured. The opposite is the case with the fallers – players who are struggling. Oftentimes, the best pickups (or guys to insert into your lineup) are the guys coming off rough weeks because that's just the way the cookie crumbles. Be sure to read my analysis and then discern for yourself the proper course of action.

Eric Thames (1B/OF, MIL)

Off to an incredible return to the big leagues, Thames tied Yoenis Cespedes for the most home runs last week (five) and has a share of the league lead with six homers through the first two weeks. He's hit at least one long ball in four straight games and now leads the league in slugging percentage (.921) and OPS (1.376). Looking like one heck of a steal for those who took a shot at him around the 15th round in 12-teamers, Thames' early domination is a good sign for what will likely be a great season. He clearly won't be hitting five homers per week, but he hits second in a power-packed lineup and could throw together a nice 30-homer, 100-RBI season with a handful of steals. His 23 percent strikeout rate is reasonable and that 10 percent walk rate is nice to see as well. I can understand why so much of the fantasy community was hesitant to invest too high of a draft pick in Thames this year, but there had to be a point in the draft – at least a couple of rounds before his ADP – where people should have been targeting him just in case his KBO success translated to the majors. I only ended up with a couple of shares myself, and I don't mean the last statement as an "I told you so" to fellow analysts. My point is that there's no reward without risks and we sometimes need to stick our necks out there, especially in leagues like NFBC with overall prizes at stake. By the way, you can probably lock in Thames for the .200 with just one homer this week because #baseball.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM)

Duda's hot three-homer week shouldn't come as a big surprise for fantasy owners. What was shocking was how it really didn't seem to matter to owners in my NFBC leagues. He went for single-digit FAAB bids in a few of my leagues, which is strange when you compare it to multiple $200-plus Trey Mancini bids. Do folks not realize you don't get last week's stats? Everyone wants to jump on the next big thing, and Duda is old news. Sure, he's an "old" 31 due to his wonky back. He went virtually undrafted in 12-teamers since his back back was hurting in spring training, but let's not forget that Duda hit 57 home runs between 2014 and 2015 before the back issues arose. Duda's striking out at a higher clip (29 percent) than he has over the course of his career (23 percent), but we know what we're buying. If he plays 140 games, Duda will hit 25-30 homers and likely finish the year with a batting average somewhere between .240 and .255. If you own him or picked him up this week, you simply pop him into your lineups with weekly changes at CI or UT when he's facing five right-handed pitchers. He has value to your fantasy team as long as that back don't crack.

Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS)

It doesn't take a fantasy savant to realize that Moreland's hot start is unsustainable. I mean, it would be unsustainable for Babe Ruth or any human swinging a bat in the majors. Through two weeks, Moreland is hitting .356 and leading the league in doubles with nine. Moreland only has one home run, but he seems to be a part of the box-score action every single day. If you follow me on Twitter, you may have noticed me talking about how underrated Moreland was in early-March drafts. Unfortunately, I didn't end up with too many shares because I usually had my CI locked in earlier and also started man-crushing on Travis Shaw in the second half of March. Moreland has big proverbial shoes to fill, as he essentially takes over David Ortiz's spot with the Red Sox, but that's going to be near impossible because Moreland is simply not the new Papi. It's not like the .255 career hitter has suddenly learned to hit; don't expect him to finish at or over .300. It's possible, but I'd bet against it. We're only two weeks in, but that .433 BABIP makes one think that the ball is bouncing his way a bit better than it will over the next 24 weeks. And if you think his 64 percent hard-hit rate won't drastically decline, I've got some Chris Shelton shares to sell you. Don't get me wrong – Moreland's got pop. He's hit at least 20 homers in each of his last three healthy seasons and will likely have a career season with the Red Sox. It just won't come with a very pleasant batting average. Suffice it to say, if you took him in the 28th round, you got yourself a great deal.

Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN)

Welcome back to April, Eugenio! Isn't this the same guy who hit 15 bombs before the All-Star break and only six after? It sure is. Suarez is currently covering for his ice cold teammate, Joey Votto, who we all know will get it going sooner than later. The main takeaway is that Suarez has become a better and more consistent hitter over the last calendar year. Though he had all those first-half homers, Suarez hit just .227 (with a .295 OBP), but then .272 after the break with a respectable OBP (.344). He ran hot last week, going 10-for-26 with two homers, eight RBI and seven runs scored. Suarez nearly doubled his walk rate last year from the previous campaign (from four to eight percent), and he's continued that positive trend in the early going this year, with an 11 percent mark. His strikeout rate is just 17 percent now, which is quite nice compared to his 24 percent rate over the last two seasons. The bottom line is that Suarez is only 25 years old and still getting better. Last season's counting stats were nice already, and I think this campaign will see him improve in homers, RBI and average while experiencing slight declines in steals and runs.

Chase Anderson (SP, MIL)

Before he made his second start of the year last week, I tweeted that Anderson is one of those guys who has a bad reputation in fantasy circles but is actually underrated. Stuff like this happens because some DFS folks are once bitten, twice shy, and Anderson must have blown their teams up in the past. The fact is that Anderson has actually not blown anyone up since June of last season. In fact, he now has an 18-game streak of allowing three earned runs or fewer. It started with his first July start and will likely end by the time you read this since he's facing the Cubs in Wrigley on Monday night. Nothing has changed in terms of his velocity (91.5 mph fastball) or his offerings (a four-pitch mix led by his cutter). Anderson still has a penchant for walking batters a little too often and has a very mediocre strikeout rate (19 percent over his career). He can be added in 15-teamers for spot starts, but because of his home park I don't believe he's a must-add for your 12-team leagues. Anderson is an average major league pitcher who's simply learning to be more disciplined and consistent on the mound.

Matt Boyd (SP, DET)

Boyd had a rough outing in his season debut (five earned runs and four walks in under three innings) but he's thrown gems in his last two starts, including an impressive one-hitter against the Indians in Progressive Field on Sunday. Even with that rough outing against the White Sox, Boyd is holding opposing batters to a .188 batting average. There are a few concerns with Boyd that keeps us from going all-in. First of all, we have to be timid with AL pitchers when there are (likely less volatile) NL arms available on waivers. Second, Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher. He allowed 1.57 HR/9 last season, and his career groundball rate is 35.5 percent. A sixth-round pick by the Blue Jays in 2013, he did maintain good control in the minors, but Boyd has yet to translate that to the big leagues, as he's walked nearly eight percent of opposing batters in his career thus far. You can try to time him with occasional spot starts in 15-teamers, but he's dangerous in 12-team formats; teammate Daniel Norris has much more promise. I'd be wary of Boyd and consider other options before getting pulled in, even if he has yet another good start this week.

Honorable Mentions

Brandon Phillips (2B, ATL) – He's been begging to get out of Cincinnati for a couple of years and still has something left in the tank. Phillips had seven hits in 18 at-bats last week along with a homer, five runs scored and three steals. His career .146 ISO is paltry and he's not going to pop more than about 10 homers, but he'll contribute in all the other categories, making him a solid MI play.

Ender Inciarte (OF, ATL) – Of all the Braves' hitters, Inciarte seems to be digging his new park most. Freeman Stadium is currently Ender's Game. He's hitting .375 at home (compared to .189 on the road). Inciarte smashed four homers last week, but don't expect that to be an ongoing part of his arsenal. Sure, he could hit about 12 homers this season, but he's primarily going to contribute to your batting average and runs categories. Inciarte also can't hit lefties at all.

Cesar Hernandez (2B, PHI) – We've got to love what we're seeing from CHern. I covered him in a preseason Barometer as someone to keep an eye on, but I just wasn't sure how his 15 new pounds of offseason muscle would affect him at the plate. He seems to be taking well to it. The 26-year-old Venezuelan is hitting .346 with three homers and 11 runs scored, and he stole his first base of the season Sunday. Most important to us was his walk rate bump from the first half (six percent) to the second half (16 percent) last season. That rate is down early on (six percent), but he's paying dividends in other ways.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA) – Not much to be said here. He's healthy, has great plate discipline (7 percent walk rate, 19 percent strikeout rate last year) and has solid pop (23 homers in 148 games). Ozuna led the league with 12 RBI last week and hit .434. I still think he's a .270 hitter, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see him have an outlier .290 season with close to 30 bombs.

Chad Kuhl (SP, PIT) – I didn't get him in my NFBC Main on the weekend because I had other needs and my rotation there is solid, but I'm keeping an eye on this kid. The velocity across all four of his offerings (sinker, slider, fastball, changeup) is up slightly from last season. He's got pitching coach Ray Searage in his corner, and he was trusted enough to start the season in the rotation over Tyler Glasnow, Drew Hutchison and Steven Brault. He's allowed six walks through his first two starts, but Kuhl has limited both of his opponents to just three earned runs over those 11 innings. Next up is a matchup with a lukewarm Cards squad on the road followed by a Week 4 two-step against the Cubs at home, then one on the road against the Marlins. Kuhl is an add in 15-team leagues.

FALLERS

Victor Martinez (UT, DET)

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about V-Mart. He's been one of baseball's most consistent hitters over the last decade and has always hit well when healthy. There was concern heading into last season coming off a partial 2015 season, and yet V-Mart hit .329 with five homers last April. Through the first two weeks of this season, Martinez is hitting under the Mendoza line with no homers and just four RBI. Most disturbing is his 3:10 BB:K in 44 plate appearances. That's a 23.3 percent strikeout rate, which is a bad sign when you consider his career walk rate of 10.9 percent is one of the best we've ever seen. Like I said, VMart always hits when healthy. The fact that he's 38 doesn't concern me as much as the possibility that he might not be at full strength healthwise, and then we hear something after we've played him in our lineups for four straight weeks. I'm benching him this week in the two NFBC 12-team leagues where I own him, but I fully acknowledge the power of the Fallers portion of the Barometer; that is, VMart could go off this week. Just check out what I said about Cespedes and what he did last week.

Steve Pearce (1B/OF, TOR)

I've watched almost every one of Pearce's at-bats this season because I thought he was a value based on ADP in this year's drafts, and I've come away disappointed, but not hopeless. Pearce has pretty much gone 0-fer the first two weeks. He's not in the lineup every day, as he plays primarily against lefties, but he's started a couple of times against righties as well. Pretty much the entire Blue Jays offense is ice cold right now. Jose Bautista is struggling, Troy Tulowitzki has cooled after a nice start, and Devon Travis has all but lost his spot atop the lineup. It may take a fully healthy Josh Donaldson and perhaps warmer weather to get these bats going. Pearce hit .288 last season with 13 homers in 85 games. He struggled in 2015, hitting just .218, but was never healthy. His breakout came in 2014, when he hit .293 with 21 homers for the Orioles in just 102 games. Of course, Pearce is 34 and has never played more games in a season than those 102, though he's basically a late bloomer who spent most of his 20s being shuttled back and forth between the minors and majors. Nevertheless, Pearce is probably someone you can drop in 12- and 15-teamers, then re-add later once he's got his groove back. It's hard to commit to a guy who's really only valuable against lefties when we have so many terrific, cheap options at corner infield. I'm still a fan, but he's no must-own.

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN)

Perhaps I should have covered him last week, but I wanted to give Buxton another week to assess. Many of us expected a bit of improvement resulting from the reduced pressure of being taken out of the three-hole. Buxton hit seventh and then ninth, and the result has been nothing. He's still hardly able to make contact or get the ball out of the infield. A 53.4 percent strikeout rate is almost impossible to fathom, but that's where we're at after Buxton struck out two more times on Sunday. It's pretty sad when the highlight of his week was a bunt single that led to a stolen base. Keep in mind that during the end-of-season hot stretch in which Buxton hit nine homers in 101 at-bats, he still struck out over 37 percent of the time. The Twins are in a tough spot because sending Buxton to Triple-A probably won't "fix" his swing, but it might be the right move because it could motivate him to work hard and make adjustments. Sometimes, the act of being demoted can provide a psychological benefit for someone of Buxton's pedigree. It's not like Buxton is lazy not or unmotivated – of course he's frustrated and wants to live up to the hype. I do still believe we'll get some production and hot streaks out of him, but that'll be accompanied by a lot of strikeouts. Trading him likely won't net you a significant return and it's hard to bench your No. 2 outfielder, but I can't blame you if you want to do it for a couple of weeks. He may not be covered in the net of the Barometer Fallers reverse-jinx, but if you see him balling out this week, you'll know why!

Yan Gomes (C, CLE)

Like the Beastie Boys once said, mmmm, droooop. Gomes is hands down the worst hitter in baseball going back to the beginning of 2016, as he's batted an impossible .158 (44-for-278) over that span. He did play just 78 games last year due to a mid-July shoulder separation; Gomes managed just four at-bats in the postseason. The offseason hasn't helped, as he's back to his lackluster ways over these first two weeks. I had one Gomes share in a 12-teamer and couldn't drop him fast enough, doing so for Tucker Barnhart – a catcher I'm not even that fond of – simply to get the guy off my squad. Punting at catcher seems to be working for those who got shares of Travis d'Arnaud, among a few others, but the future does not look bright for Gomes. His line from 2014 (.278 with 21 homers and 74 RBI) will forever remain his outlier season as he continues to give cede at-bats to fellow mediocre teammate Roberto Perez.

Tim Anderson (SS, CHW)

We've seen a bit of the same old thing with Anderson through the first two weeks of the season. It seemed as if he was a bit underrated with his his 160-ish ADP in February, so he gained steam in March with the thought of 700 plate appearances and a chance to lead off for the White Sox. Well, the White Sox are a mess, starting cold for the second consecutive season. Anderson is hitting second simply for lack of other options, and he can't figure out how to get on base consistently, as he owns a 2.3 percent walk rate – even lower than last season's rate. Anderson has a homer and a steal, but he's hitting .140 with just six hits in 43 plate appearances, thanks in part to striking out at an identical 27 percent clip to his rookie season. There simply isn't anything great coming out of the south side of Chicago right now. Anderson will likely get his 20-plus stolen bags, but he could be out-roto'd by the likes of Josh Harrison and Cesar Hernandez, who both had ADPs more than 100 spots later.

Jose Quintana (SP, CHW)

The seemingly consistent yet unlucky Quintana has stumbled out of the gate and will need to gain steam in order for the White Sox to get some trade value for him. Quintana has always posted decent ratios for an AL guy, and yet he failed to hit double-digit victories for three straight seasons until finally winning 13 games last season. The White Sox are bad again, and they've lost each of the three games he's pitched. He had a decent outing against the Twins (a quality start with seven strikeouts and just one walk) sandwiched between a couple horrible ones (11 earned runs and eight walks in 11 innings). Quintana's velocity has not dipped from last season, and he looks like the same guy, albeit a bit more hittable. All four of the home runs he's allowed have come from right-handed batters, against whom he's surrendered a .427 wOBA thus far. His next two starts come at home against the Indians and Royals – squads that are collectively hitting under .200 against opposing southpaws. I don't believe there's much to worry about with Quintana, but if he can't turn in a couple decent outings here, we might have a little bit to worry about. Either way, keep in mind next draft season to avoid lefty arms without big strikeout rates who play alongside lackluster offenses. Quintana could have started off the year red hot and I likely still would not have blinked about passing him up at his relatively high ADP. We want to solidify our rotation base in the early rounds so that we can take shots at upside in the middle and late rounds.