MLB Barometer: Is the Piñata Party Over?

Staying active with free-agent bidding is absolutely crucial to fantasy success. Especially in the second half of the season when everyone's FAAB dwindles and every dollar counts. You want to be diligent with your budget and not spend more than you have to. The key is to have the monetary advantage for the stretch run. Some say the more teams you have, the less effective each of your team's FAAB efforts are, but I'd beg to differ. If you start getting a feel for potential drops and targets earlier in the week, it makes weekend decisions all the more palpable and a bit less stressful.

Deciding how much to spend on players, especially once July hits, is important as well. For example, Taijuan Walker was available in one of my NFBC 12-team leagues. My pitching could use the boost and I decided I absolutely had to have him but wanted to leave myself with at least $150 for after the All-Star break. My team had $374 of $1,000 remaining and seven of the other 11 teams had fewer FAAB dollars than I. Only one guy had more than $500 ($736 to be exact). My assumption was that it would take somewhere between $150 and $250 to get him. First off, I had to review my league's past drops and assess whether someone of Walker's caliber would be dropped and available to me later. Of course, there's no way to predict that, but you can catch patterns. There's usually always one guy in your league whose patience runs thin for players who hit the DL or are underperforming.

I also had to keep in mind that if the guy with $736 remaining wanted Walker, I had no shot, so I made sure to set my conditional bids (Bud Norris, Sean Manaea, Hisashi Iwakuma) appropriately, weighing whether I wanted them long-term (spend more) or as a short-term fill in like Manaea's two-step (spend less). After looking at the $736 guy's bid history and place in the standings, it appeared to me that he had long since stopped caring for his team and wouldn't be a factor on the Walker bid.

Lastly, I had to get the exact number right. My first rule is that I never bid with a 0 or 1 at the end. For the most part, I just never bid on the round number. And since most veteran NFBC players don't either, bidding $1 more probably won't get your players most of the time. You can get a feel for each of your leaguemate's bidding patterns if you look at the FAAB history. If you notice a trend in the number your competitor end's his bid with, try to go a number or two higher. By the way, sneaky veterans bid so that you can't track their patterns.

So for Walker, I originally came up with $227, then moved it down to $179 and back up $10 more dollars to $189. I was at a birthday party during this week's FAAB deadline, and hastily assumed after a cocktail that $200 would not be enough. In the end, I bid $223, which got him. The backup bid on him was $159. So either way, my assumption for this specific bid was correct. Although I spent an extra $34 ($223 - $189), it did not matter since I got the player I wanted that my team needed.

There are and will always be players worth adding via FAAB, no matter what part of the season we're in. Spending the extra time to assess bidding patterns and establish your own strategy can prove to be a fruitful endeavor.

RISERS

Danny Espinosa (SS, WAS)

It would be impossible to highlight the most recent risers without mentioning Espinosa. Last week his five-HR, 17-RBI effort was one of the most productive weeks this season. Espinosa hit .423 last week with nice, even numbers across the board: a .500 OBP, 1.000 SLG and 1.500 OPS. Note that most of this production came over two games (4 HR, 15 RBI) and that Espinosa's hot week raised his seasonal batting average to just above the .240 mark. The man with the shaggiest beard in the game was also a hot pickup in in all formats, though I hope those of you who added him didn't break the bank. Because you don't get last week's stats. Even the most novice of fantasy folk understand that Espinosa probably won't have a week like he just had. But that does not mean we have to avoid him entirely. Here's the good: Espinosa's power is for real and he plays on a great offense, despite hitting near the bottom of the order. His .238 ISO is a career high, but we have seen him flash the big bat before (21 HR in 2011). Espi is just three homers shy of that mark and should easily crush it on his way to 25-plus. Phenom shortstop Trea Turner looks like he will join the outfield when the Nats are ready for him since there isn't a reason to take Espinosa out of the lineup. As for the downside? You already know it. Espinosa can single-handedly cripple your batting average, so be sure your roster doesn't have too many of those low contact-rate types. He is still the career .230 hitter we are all familiar with. We use him in the lineup this week and ride him while he's hot. But no way do we drop guys like Brandon Crawford, Marcus Semien or Trevor Story for him. Every waiver wire flavor of the week fizzles eventually, but as long as Espinosa has a job and your squad can stomach the average, he has earned a spot on your roster.

Kendrys Morales (DH, KC)

Although I treat my fantasy teams like a business and always advise you to do the same, it is difficult not to be somewhat subjective and have favorites. Let it be known that Morales is one of mine. It may have something to do with last season since I drafted him late on four teams that all ended up winning their leagues. And most of us assumed that there would be some regression in play this year. This was built into his reasonable 169 ADP. Well, hopefully the worst is now in the past. Typically a plus average hitter, Morales averaged just .193 with six home runs the first two months of the season. Since June 1, Morales is hitting .412 with eight homers (through Sunday's games). Heading into Week 14, Morales has a strong split hitting against lefties (.338/.387/1.019, compared to .239/.308/.718 vs. RHP) and is hitting nearly 100 points better at home. With Morales, it's simple. You leave him in at your UT spot and get the stats. The issue comes into play if you own David Ortiz or Victor Martinez. Such was the case when Morales was dropped in two of my 12-team NFBC leagues. I owned Ortiz and VMart in those leagues and did not bid a penny on Morales. Sure, I could have blocked a leaguemate from owning him, but there would never be a week where I could comfortably slot Morales in for one of those two. Imagine the type of stats I'd miss out on trying to predict weekly production. It's a headache best saved for other lineup slots. As far as what we can expect from Morales for the rest of the season: for him to finish with more than the 22 HR he has averaged the last three seasons, and for him to fall short of last season's 106 RBI. Update: Hits another home run Monday as I write this.

J.A. Happ (SP, TOR)

Can you believe that J.A. Happ has been one of baseball's most consistent starting pitchers the last calendar year? Well, let's go with the last 11 months, when he was traded to the Pirates at the end of last July. Over that time, Happ has a 2.91 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and 8.76 strikeouts-per-nine in 170 innings. Returning to the Blue Jays in the offseason, Happ has picked up 11 wins in 17 starts and has a legitimate shot at a 20-win season due in part to the tremendous run support his team's offense regularly provides. Although Happ got roughed up to the tune of five earned runs in Coors Field last week, he rebounded with his best start of the season – five hits, one earned run and no walks against the red-hot Indians. He also struck out 11, which was his first double-digit strikeout game since Sept. 9. If you're into xFIP, you'd imagine that the 4.38 points to regression with his 3.54 ERA. We all know that the Rogers Centre is a difficult place to pitch. As you would expect, Happ's 3.17 road ERA is much better than his 4.02 at home. Happ will continue to serve up homers occasionally, and pitch better on the road. A touch under eight strikeouts-per-nine is a fair expectation. But most of all, Happ's best contribution should come in the form of those unpredictable wins. It makes the occasional pummeling easier to handle.

Michael Pineda (SP, NYY)

Pineda has come a long way since last appearing in a late-April Barometer column. He has been slowly shedding the Michael Piñata nickname and has been one of baseball's most consistent pitchers since the beginning of June. In six starts since then, Pineda has 2.75 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with a 49:8 K:BB ratio. Only Max Scherzer (65), Chris Archer (55), Danny Duffy (53) and Jose Fernandez (50) have more strikeouts over that span. Unfortunately, the Yankees' offense has sputtered along the last few weeks as Pineda was only able to secure a single victory. His latest start against the Rangers was only the second time in 11 starts that he allowed more than two free passes. He also struck out a season-high 12 batters in that game. As I had mentioned in that Week 5 Barometer, much of Pineda's struggles seem to be mental. When he starts getting hit, Pineda unravels and the results often become gruesome. His ratios (5.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) are still ugly, but improving. The biggest bright side is that he is helping out fantasy owners with strikeouts – his 10.8 K/9 is sixth highest among starting pitchers. All one can do as a Pineda owner is to continue to throw him out there and hope the Yankees' offense can help him notch a few wins. When he's on his game, Pineda is among the filthiest.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Seth Smith (OF, SEA)

Seth Smith is not for the casual fantasy player. Smith is for those who dig deeper, looking for every angle at which one can squeeze out additional stats. Since nobody reading this is a player of the casual variety, you likely know that Smith is a strict platoon player, only in the Mariners' lineup against right-handed pitchers. The type of player Michael Conforto wants to avoid becoming. Smith had a fantastic week last week, hitting .476 with five homers and 11 runs batted in. Even though he rides the pine against lefties, Smith is on pace for career-high numbers across the board. This includes likely eclipsing his career-high 17 HR mark from 2010 as a member of the Rockies. Smith is best used in daily formats, especially when he is batting second against a subpar righty. For season-long weekly leagues, he's usually available to grab off the waiver wire, but we only want to do so when we're projecting at least four RHP in the given week. Last week's numbers are officially in the rearview, and we can all be rest assured we won't see a repeat of those numbers this week, nor next week, even against a bunch of righties. But he's important to have in the back pocket as a backup plan when his schedule looks good on paper and you need a fifth outfielder.

Didi Gregorius (SS, NYY)

Gregorius will never be Derek Jeter, and no one in their right minds would even allude to it. There is no similarity past their defensive capabilities at the position and pinstripes on their uniforms. What Gregorius has become lately is a player worthy of 12-team leagues. The issue is that 2016 has become the "Year of the Shortstop." Between all the early round draft pick youngsters and the middling options, it seems that just about everyone at the position is contributing offensively in one way or another. Gregorius' batting average is up to .291. Only Carlos Beltran has been better for the Yanks in that department. Last week, Gregorius hit .367 with three homers, including a walk-off against the Rangers in which the Yankees scored six ninth-inning runs. He has already matched his career-high home run total with nine and his 11 percent K-rate makes him one of the hardest in the game to strike out. On the flip side, Gregorius does not have a great lineup spot and rarely takes a walk (sub-four percent walk rate). There will come a time (likely in the next two weeks) when his hot bat cools and his owners will be tempted to drop him. Feel free to do just that. Gregorius is a dime-a-dozen MI who will remain on 12-team roster bubbles the remainder of the season.

Marcus Semien (SS, OAK)

Along with fellow unsexy Kyle Seager, Semien resides within a group of hitters I typically avoid because of their lack of upside in batting average. I'm a bit snobby with average and ratio categories, typically drawing a line in the sand of guys I want to avoid at their ADPs when I set my preseason projections. Semien was someone I was essentially avoiding under all circumstances, until the final week of March when Scott Jenstad sold me on him and I ended up with a share. Although Semien is hurting that team's BA overall with his .237, he has more than made up for it in the power department. With 17 roundtrippers heading into the 14th week of the season, Semien has a legitimate shot to reach 30. At this point, it's most important that he locks in that No. 2 spot in the lineup now that we've seen him hit there couple times this week. It's a pity to see him wasting away near the bottom of the A's lineup. Semien draws his fair share of walks (8.4 percent), but it's his lack of contact outside of the longballs that has kept his OBP around the .300 mark. Kudos to Scott for the heads up, and for the refresher that I can take the unsexy players at their low ADP if there is upside in other categories and the rest of my team can absorb bad batting average.

FALLERS

Miguel Montero (C, CHC)

Montero's fall from grace has been a hard one. Granted, he was drafted as a second catcher this spring with an ADP of 250. Expectations weren't all that high despite a role as primary catcher on one of baseball's best offenses. After all, Montero has hit double-digit home runs in every one of his full big-league seasons and even approached 90 RBI back in 2012, better than all catchers not named Buster. Since the promotion of Willson Contreras, Montero's playing time has taken a dive. Even though Contreras has started nearly as many games in left field, David Ross still gets occasional starts – specifically when Jon Lester is on the mound. So, at this point, the time has come where 12-teamers have either already dropped Montero or are considering doing so. And it's for the likes of the middling variety, like Tucker Barnhart or Robinson Chirinos. I would love to say that we shouldn't drop Montero, that Contreras will struggle so badly that the Cubbies will send him back down and that Montero will heat up simultaneously. Unfortunately for Montero owners, I don't anticipate that. Without the semi-regular playing time, Montero has become an easy drop you shouldn't regret.

Tommy Joseph (1B, PHI)

Joseph has the look and the size of a major-league slugger. Joseph was drafted by the Giants as a catcher in 2009 and was a key piece in the deal that sent Hunter Pence packing. Joseph struggled with staying on the field, compiling multiple concussions as well as a wrist injury and some vision problems that were eventually corrected. Joseph was called up in mid-May and started with a bang, swatting three home runs in his first nine games. Since a nice stretch of games in early June (two homers, five-game hitting streak), Joseph has been Peter O'Brien-like at the plate, just 12 for his last 78 (.153). Joseph's miniscule two percent walk rate is simply a continuation of struggles in that department over his last two seasons (three percent walk rate in 275 Triple-A plate appearances). Joseph can be slotted in as an occasional DFS play, but otherwise needs not to take up space on your 12- or even 15-team roster.

Billy Burns (OF, OAK)

I touched on Burns in the rest-of-season outfielder analysis last week and nothing has changed that outlook. Burns is riding pine much too often (four times in the A's last seven games) and only contributes to stolen bases. He is a lineup slot killer if you're still playing him full time. His low (3.7 percent) walk rate all but ensures Burns will continue to hit at the bottom of the lineup when he does play. All that said, Burns is still (arguably) the fastest base runner in the game. He stole 128 bases over two minor league seasons in 2013 and 2014. I bid on Burns in a 12-teamer where I needed steals, but fell short. On the team I drafted him on, he only comes in the lineup on half-week periods when he has four games. He mostly hangs out on my bench as I don't feel comfortable dropping him off the roster and into the sea of sharks I call my competition. It seems unlikely that the aging Coco Crisp will hold up all season, though. This may be a pipe dream, but I think Burns is overdue for a period of consistent playing time and productivity. If you're still holding on to Burns in 12-teamers, make sure it's for the right reason. There are multiple right reasons but quite clearly one wrong one: because he was a top-10 draft pick for your fantasy team. Save the emotion for when your real baseball team makes the playoffs and just do what's best for your fantasy team.

Patrick Corbin (SP, ARI)

I'd like to think that Corbin can have a better second half, that he can maintain some consistency over a few starts like he did last July (3.21 ERA, 9.3 K/9 over five starts) upon his return to the Diamondbacks after recovering from Tommy John surgery. His 2016, though, has been a full on box of Forrest Gump chocolates. He is 4-6 in 17 starts with a 1.45 WHIP, an ERA near 5.00 and a 17-percent strikeout rate. In addition to the drop from last season's 22 percent K-rate, Corbin's walk-rate is nearly double (8.2 percent) last year's rate (4.8 percent). Corbin's velocity is less than a tick lower than last season, but mostly the issue is of the unknown coming into each start. Two starts that we would likely have benched him for (at Cubs, at Blue Jays) were two of his best outings of the year. Just two earned runs in a win against the Jays and no walks, five strikeouts in seven inning when he beat the Cubbies. I had to drop my only Corbin share in a 12-team NFBC league because I'd rather take a chance on Bud Norris in his new uniform. It could end up being a mistake, but I have no problem getting Corbin back for a few bucks next week if I have a corresponding drop. Corbin is your middle-of-the-road starting pitcher whose stock has dwindled due to his unpredictability from start to start and his decreasing K-rate and rising walk rate. I still believe there will come a time when Corbin will be worth owning and starting. But the fact that he pitches half his games in Chase Field reduces the excitement of him being a must-own. Expect an improved second half but with plenty more unpredictability.

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI)

It would be inaccurate to tell you I saw this coming. What I can tell you is that I was in a small minority who couldn't wrap his mind around how effective and dominant Nola was the first nine weeks of the season. After all, Nola might already have the best curveball in the game. RotoWire colleague Kevin Payne and I traded him off in the staff keeper at the height of his value in early April and I only had one share over 10 NFBC teams this season. So perhaps I was subconsciously rooting against him, which affected my opinion of his true talent. Nevertheless, Nola has fallen from grace faster than any starting pitcher in baseball. Prior to his first June start, Nola was among league leaders with a 2.87 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over 11 starts. Since June 1, a 10.12 ERA and a 2.33 WHIP in six starts. Nola failed to get out of the fourth inning in four of his last five starts, serving up at least five earned runs in each. FanGraphs' Eno Sarris provides a more in-depth analysis of what's going on with Nola, but the main thing to note is that he doesn't appear to be hiding an injury and there has not been any change in his velocity. For a starter who relies on his command, Nola is smart enough to identify the issues and make the proper adjustments. First, though, a start skipped to give him a breather and to regroup. The only thing Nola owners can do at this point is bench him until they see a good start. He is not a drop candidate in any format other than perhaps 10-teamers, depending on what is available in FAAB. Playing for a team that lacks a strong offense definitely hurts Nola's value, but his K-rate is strong and once he regains that control, Nola should continue to be one of the best contributors to the WHIP category. He's just not a top-25 SP yet.