This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Divisional Series Bets: Expert MLB Props for Saturday, October 5
- Year-to-Date Record: 167-169-1
- Prior Article: 1-4 ( -3.00 units)
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MLB Postseason Betting Tips
PITCHING IMPACT
A lower run-scoring environment means you want to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed and over strikeouts. Avoid laying -1.5 runs unless it is an extreme situation.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game in the regular season. In the postseason it goes down as teams have a day off between games. Bullpens are critical to postseason success and should be heavily taken into consideration.
HITTER PROPS
Be careful with hitter props because every team is throwing their best pitchers. We are dealing with some of the best MLB teams. I will look only at home run + runs + RBI props on a top-four hitter in the playoffs.
Don't make the mistake of wagering at your favorite best online sportsbooks without first researching what the best MLB odds are.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Kansas City Royals 
at New York Yankees 
I was on the under in both Royals/Orioles games in previous articles, but this is a props piece, so I need to focus on starting pitching. I do not want to go against the Yankees' offense in this spot at home, so I will look at continuing to fade the Royals' offense with a prop on Gerrit Cole.
Cole allowed 4.6 hits runs per game on the season and the Royals have averaged 0.75 hits per inning on the road since August 26th. Much like Zack Wheeler, we have a huge Moneyline home favorite in Cole (-200), so the numbers favor taking the prop on him.
The Royals draw a lot of walks against right-handers. With the Royals' offense struggling, the hits allowed (4.5) prop is the most optimal path to take.
MLB Picks for Royals at Yankees
- Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Hits Allowed for 1 Unit (-105 at BetMGM)
New York Mets 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
The Mets come into this series with the Phillies off an emotional win against the Brewers. The Phillies are rested and had the best record in baseball at home. Zack Wheeler is a stud workhorse and opened as a -185 favorite. It is now around -175. The total in this game opened at 7.5 and has moved to 7.0.
I wanted a piece of Wheeler in a big way, but the juice on his recorded outs is pretty steep at -162 for 17.5 outs. Laying juice in the postseason is just the way of life. You have to embrace it while trying to find value in other spots.
This is a unique situation with Kodai Senga pitching after being out nearly the entire season. His pitch count will be low and he might go two innings max, which is why his under 2.5 strikeouts prop is the most appealing. Plus he will be facing the top 3-6 hitters in the Phillies' lineup.
I love Wheeler to go over his outs props in this spot as the Phillies will have no problem letting their starter go at least six innings. The numbers also support it with the huge Moneyline, low total, the Mets' uncertainty at pitching and the Phillies' home record.
MLB Picks for Mets at Phillies
- Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 Outs for 2 Units (-162 at BetRivers)
- Kodai Senga Under 2.5 Strikeouts for 1 Unit (+125 at BetMGM)
San Diego Padres 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
I am leaning heavily on pitching props for this slate and this game is no different. The Dodgers' offense is deadly, especially at home, but Dylan Cease's recorded outs prop is only 14.5.
Cease has hit the over on this prop in 27 out of 33 starts (82 percent). He did not pitch in the previous series against the Braves, so he is on 10 days' rest. That should give him the leash needed to hit this prop and go at least five innings.
Even though I think there will be runs in this game, we only need Cease to go five innings here.
MLB Picks for Padres at Dodgers
- Dylan Cease Over 14.5 Outs for 1 Unit (-140 at BetMGM)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Hits Allowed for 1 Unit (-105 at BetMGM)
- Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 Outs for 2 Units (-162 at BetRivers)
- Kodai Senga Under 2.5 Strikeouts for 1 Unit (+125 at BetMGM)
- Dylan Cease Over 14.5 Outs for 1 Unit (-140 at BetMGM)
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