The first series of the season is in the books, which means it's time to turn the page from draft prep to in-season management. Points leagues tend to typically be shallower than roto formats, so in many leagues it will be worth acting quickly to churn the bottom of rosters quickly based on what we see in team's opening series.
As a quick rundown, the most specific factors I'll be looking at in the short term, when skills are not yet stable, are a player's spot in his team's lineup and whether they are playing every day. Opportunity is king in most fantasy games, and that's certainly the case in points leagues because every at-bat is a chance to put fantasy points on the board. While it may not seem like a significant advantage in game-by-game increments, rostering players who consistently hit in the top third of their lineup will turn out to be a difference maker in the long term.
It's a bit trickier to make evaluations on pitchers in the same manner. Strikeouts tend to be sticky relative to run or hit prevention, so noting unexpected pitchers with big-time strikeout performances is one strategy. Another is watching how teams manage their starters. The Rays are notorious for pulling pitchers early and even with low pitch counts, though plenty of other teams have started to follow suit. That strategy hurts a pitcher's chance for a win and may eliminate the opportunity for quality starts, both of which typically reward
The first series of the season is in the books, which means it's time to turn the page from draft prep to in-season management. Points leagues tend to typically be shallower than roto formats, so in many leagues it will be worth acting quickly to churn the bottom of rosters quickly based on what we see in team's opening series.
As a quick rundown, the most specific factors I'll be looking at in the short term, when skills are not yet stable, are a player's spot in his team's lineup and whether they are playing every day. Opportunity is king in most fantasy games, and that's certainly the case in points leagues because every at-bat is a chance to put fantasy points on the board. While it may not seem like a significant advantage in game-by-game increments, rostering players who consistently hit in the top third of their lineup will turn out to be a difference maker in the long term.
It's a bit trickier to make evaluations on pitchers in the same manner. Strikeouts tend to be sticky relative to run or hit prevention, so noting unexpected pitchers with big-time strikeout performances is one strategy. Another is watching how teams manage their starters. The Rays are notorious for pulling pitchers early and even with low pitch counts, though plenty of other teams have started to follow suit. That strategy hurts a pitcher's chance for a win and may eliminate the opportunity for quality starts, both of which typically reward points.
The warning about judging workload early in the season is that the explanation is often that the team is protecting their pitcher rather than planning to limit them to short starts for the rest of the season. Given that, be cautious about overreacting to pitching performances, particularly those that were drafted early as cornerstones of your fantasy roster.
With all of that behind us, the purpose of this article will be to predict which players could see a change in value in the early portions of the season. For now, we'll use roster rate as the gauge of their perceived fantasy value.
Lastly, for those who want a more detailed discussion on points leagues strategies, check out this evergreen article published last year.
Note: rostership percentages are as of Opening Day.
Hitters
Projected Risers
Kyle Manzardo – 33% rostered CBS, 12% rostered Yahoo
Spencer Torkelson - 37% rostered CBS, 8% rostered Yahoo
We can pair these two young hitters together because they're former top prospects that have had varying degrees of struggles in the majors. My preference before Opening Day is Manzardo due to both team context and skill fit in points formats. He's projected to hit third against right-handed pitching, behind Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez. Manzardo is also projected to be in the lineup against lefties. He'll likely slip down the order, but that beats a true platoon.
Torkelson wasn't projected to make the Tigers' roster early on in spring training, but he swung a hot bat and benefitted from some injuries ahead of him. He should have more secure playing time, particularly against lefties, relative to Manzardo.
Jonathan India – 86% CBS, 57% Yahoo
India is already rostered in deep and even standard-sized leagues. There's a decent argument for him to be rostered in all points leagues, even though many don't use an MI roster slot. He's set to lead off every day for the Royals, has a strong K:BB ratio and is now playing in one of the friendliest parks for extra-base hits. The standard analysis we've heard regarding India this offseason has been that being traded away from Cincinnati is a bad thing due to the potential to hurt his home run total. That's probably sound in roto formats, but that will hurt him less in points formats. (Editor's note: India was hit in the head by a pitch Sunday and may be forced to miss time.)
Trevor Story – 69% CBS, 31% Yahoo
The analysis for Story is pretty straightforward, as he hasn't been able to stay on field since joining the Red Sox. However, he enters 2025 healthy and is projected to occupy key positions in the order against both righties and lefties. Given that he's accrued only 274 plate appearances combined across the last two seasons, it's hard to know exactly what to expect from Story even if he stays on the field. Both of those things are significant concerns, but Boston should have a dynamic offense and Story will contribute to that.
Jorge Soler – 57% CBS, 53% Yahoo
Soler might have the most curious roster rate of all the players we'll cover in this article. wOBA is a good shorthand to incorporate a lot of the relevant information for points league evaluations, and Soler has put up wOBAs of .361 and .340 in the last two seasons. The Angels don't have a particularly strong lineup, but Soler's role is extremely secure. He may not be the most exciting player to see on your roster, but he's a good producer.
Jung Hoo Lee - 63% CBS, 25% Yahoo
We have a pretty clear picture of who Lee is as a hitter based on his time on the KBO and his limited sample in the majors. He isn't going to strike out, and he's going to be a key part of the Giants' roster. The problem is that he hit for zero power, but he should be added quickly if there's any sign of that changing.
Projected Fallers
Brice Turang – 96% CBS, 89% Yahoo
Turang's appeal in roto formats is limited but clear due to his prolific stolen base total. That doesn't carry as much weight in points leagues, and his solid plate skills only help him so much. For reference, he and India averaged an identical 2.7 fantasy points per game (using standard CBS scoring) last season despite the gap in how they're perceived based on roster rate.
Masyn Winn – 76% CBS, 79% Yahoo
Winn had a brutal spring (4-for-50 with a 29 K percent strikeout rate) and hit ninth on Opening Day. He was mediocre in points formats (2.6 ppg) as the primary leadoff hitter in St. Louis, so he should immediately be on roster bubbles.
Ceddanne Rafaela - 69% CBS, 75% Yahoo
Rafaela has an atrocious skillset for points leagues. In his 660 plate appearances in the majors, he owns a 27.1 percent strikeout rate paired with a 2.9 percent walk rate and a .286 wOBA. He's set to hit ninth for the Red Sox and will likely quickly be irrelevant in points formats.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – 87% CBS, 89% Yahoo
We can essentially copy and past the analysis for Rafaela and put it here for PCA. He has appeal in roto formats thanks to his speed, but he's likely to disappoint due to his lack of hit tool and plate discipline.
Pitchers
Risers
Jesus Luzardo – 88% CBS, 45% Yahoo
Luzardo's roster rate varies widely by site, but it's time to get back on board to the extent it's still possible. He showed what he can do in 2022 and 2023 (13.6 and 13 ppg) before a disastrous 2024, but that gives some confidence that his spring training results (16:3 K:BB across 12.1 IP) are a sign of what's to come this regular season. He looked great in his first start, striking out 11 Nationals in five innings while two runs on five hits and a pair of walks.
Justin Verlander – 74% CBS, 37% Yahoo
Verlander was another quietly effective pitcher this spring (19:5 K:BB across 21 IP), but the real draw is his early-season schedule. He opened the season at Cincinnati, which was far from desirable, but escaped with two runs in five innings. After that, he gets two home starts against the Mariners and Reds. He's worth streaming for those two outings and then is likely to catch the eye of more fantasy managers.
Drew Rasmussen – 51% CBS, 55% Yahoo
Rasmussen won the fifth starter job in Tampa Bay by default after Shane McClanahan's triceps injury. He's likely to be heavily limited early on in his return from significant elbow injuries, but he's still worth monitoring.
Fallers
Ronel Blanco – 94 CBS%, 60% Yahoo
Blanco maintained elite ratios in 2024, which led to him averaging a standout 15.1 ppg. His skills don't back that performance, however, most notably his 10.1 percent walk rate. Any projection system will show he's due for significant pullback. He may be able to mask that early in the season (matchups against SF and MIN), but the fantasy pain looks to be inevitable.
David Bednar – 61% CBS, 82% Yahoo
The Pirates declined to officially name Bednar the closer after he was removed from the role late last season. His spring performance didn't build up confidence in his ability to bounce back, and things have gone as poorly as possible so far. He's given up runs in all three of his appearances, failing to record an out in two of those and taking a pair of losses. There aren't many great alternatives in the Pirates' bullpen, but an ineffective Bednar isn't a fantasy asset.
