This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for June 21: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-2 (-0.25 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 71-73-1 (-5.26 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Sunday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
This has to be the highest scoring slate from a totals perspective I can ever remember. Wind blowing out 10+ mph in several parks.
Road Favorites - Diamondbacks -190 at Rockies, Braves -135 at Marlins
Home Favorites (Largest) - Dodgers -290 vs Nationals, Blue Jays -215 vs White Sox, Yankees -190 vs Orioles
Totals - Diamondbacks/Rockies 12.5-13.0, Mariners/Cubs 11.5, Yankees/Orioles 10.0, Giants/Red Sox 7.5
MLB Line Movement
Yankees -26, Pirates -17, Brewers -18, Reds -15, Dbacks -15, Dodgers -25
Yankees/Orioles from 10.5 to 9.5 / 10
Bullpen Rankings (updated 6/17/25)
Top 10 (Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Padres, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers, Guardians, Cubs, Blue Jays). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Angels, Diamondbacks, Rockies, A's, Nationals, Braves, Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Reds). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres Betting Insights
I got burned going against Padres RHP Randy Vasquez early on in the season, but I knew the regression was coming, and it has started. Royals RHP Seth Lugo on the mound for the Royals has been OK, but not his 2024 form which I think we agree would be tough to repeat. This game comes down to getting Lugo as a small road favorite against one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball.
MLB Best Bets: Royals ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -112)
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Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals Best Bets and Predictions
Reds LHP Andrew Abbott is starting to become my "Hunter Brown" of 2025, in that I am looking to bet on him every chance I get. His 9.0 K/9 along with a 1.84 ERA has made him a solid option, but I am also aware of potential regression with a 3.50 FIP and 3.95 xFIP. The Reds are 5-1 in his last 6 starts. Abbott has allowed one or no runs in every start except two.
MLB Best Bets: Cardinals UNDER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets and Predictions
This is the highest number of totals I think I have ever seen, and this game is in the hot zone, literally, with Tigers RHP Casey Mize against Rays RHP Zack Littell. You combine the heat, ballpark, low strikeout rates, and pitchers giving up a combined 3.35 HR/9, and the OVER looks really nice.
MLB Best Bets: Tigers/Rays OVER 4.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Best Bets and Predictions
This is the highest total on the board, and it has been moving upward in a very strong way, because of the terrible starting pitching and ballpark.
Diamondbacks RHP Brandon Pfaadt and Rockies RHP Antonio Senzatela are the two worst starting pitchers on the slate ranking 191th and 222nd in WAR. The total is now approaching 13.0 runs, which is enormous, but we can look at the F5 total or a team total to maybe get some lower risk.
The Diamondbacks team total is a whopping 7.5 runs with some juice, no thanks. The Rockies team total is 4.5 which is more approachable, but I am just going to expect both pitchers to get lit up and hope we get to the mid-teens.
MLB Best Bets: Diamondbacks/Rockies F5 OVER 6.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Royals ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -112)
- Cardinals UNDER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Tigers/Rays OVER 4.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 6.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
