NFBC Main Event: Fever Dream, Chapter 4

NFBC Main Event: Fever Dream, Chapter 4

I'm a couple weeks late posting this article, which recaps Weeks 14 through 20 of my first-ever foray into the NFBC Main Event. If you're just now coming along for the ride, you can find Chapters 1, 2 and 3 via the corresponding links. In Chapter 4, I'll dive into stats, standings, FAAB results and lessons learned from my "Fever Dream" Main Event squad from July 4 through August 21. A fifth and final chapter of this mini-series will be posted shortly after the season is over.

Here is my roster heading into Week 14:

One reminder based on the above:

Period 14 (July 4 - 10)

Period 14 Stats

AB

AVG

R

HR

RBI

SB

324

.2346

26

2

22

5

IP

ERA

WHIP

K

W

SV

63.2

5.513

1.445

71

2

2

End of Period 14 Standings

League Standings

+/-

Overall Standings

+/-

5/15

-2

192 / 705

-51

This was an atrocious week for my hitters, as I had the second-most at-bats in my league for the week with 324 and only scored 26 runs with just two homers and 22 RBI. To make matters worse, this was my worst pitching week to date, with the highest ERA of the week.

July 10 FAAB - $233 FAAB remaining, spent $36

Mark Melancon, Reid Detmers and Robbie Grossman, who I just dropped last week for Vinnie Pasquantino

I'm a couple weeks late posting this article, which recaps Weeks 14 through 20 of my first-ever foray into the NFBC Main Event. If you're just now coming along for the ride, you can find Chapters 1, 2 and 3 via the corresponding links. In Chapter 4, I'll dive into stats, standings, FAAB results and lessons learned from my "Fever Dream" Main Event squad from July 4 through August 21. A fifth and final chapter of this mini-series will be posted shortly after the season is over.

Here is my roster heading into Week 14:

One reminder based on the above:

Period 14 (July 4 - 10)

Period 14 Stats

AB

AVG

R

HR

RBI

SB

324

.2346

26

2

22

5

IP

ERA

WHIP

K

W

SV

63.2

5.513

1.445

71

2

2

End of Period 14 Standings

League Standings

+/-

Overall Standings

+/-

5/15

-2

192 / 705

-51

This was an atrocious week for my hitters, as I had the second-most at-bats in my league for the week with 324 and only scored 26 runs with just two homers and 22 RBI. To make matters worse, this was my worst pitching week to date, with the highest ERA of the week.

July 10 FAAB - $233 FAAB remaining, spent $36

Mark Melancon, Reid Detmers and Robbie Grossman, who I just dropped last week for Vinnie Pasquantino, were the biggest free-agent pickups in my league this week. Needing saves, I put a bid in for Melancon, but it wasn't competitive enough and he went to my former colleague Chris Liss.

Added Tyrone Taylor (OF) for $22 (backup bid $1), dropped Lane Thomas - I got my number one hitting target of the week in hopes he'd contribute some power and speed. In hindsight, Matt Carpenter may have been the better target.

Added Garrett Whitlock (P) for $14 (backup bid $1), dropped CJ Abrams - Melancon recorded six saves for the Diamondbacks between July 4 through August 21, but they came with a 4.76 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 15:10 K:BB ratio over 15.1 innings. Meanwhile, my runner-up winning Whitlock bid was far better, tallying a win, four saves, 1.83 ERA, 0.61 WHIP and 20:2 K:BB over 19.2 innings during the same period.

Period 15 (July 11 - 17)

Period 15 Stats

AB

AVG

R

HR

RBI

SB

282

.2695

38

6

28

3

IP

ERA

WHIP

K

W

SV

47.2

3.021

0.902

42

5

3

End of Period 15 Standings

League Standings

+/-

Overall Standings

+/-

4/15

+1

201 / 705

-9

The final full week before the All-Star break saw me move up one place in my league, while I slipped a bit in the overall standings. Miles Mikolas won both of his starts, Shane Bieber and Alek Manoah were dominant, and Starling Marte stole a couple of much-needed bases.

July 17 FAAB - $197 FAAB remaining, spent $1

On the hitting side, Esteury Ruiz and Luis Garcia (WAS) were potential bench upgrades over Kyle Farmer, but I didn't bid enough to win either player. I also didn't bid enough for Joey Bart in my attempt to upgrade Omar Narvaez at C2.

Added Diego Castillo (P) for $1 (no backup bid), dropped Shane Baz - Baz suffered an elbow sprain and hit the 60-day IL, so there was no sense holding onto him despite being eligible to return on September 9. 

Period 16 (July 18 - 24) - All-Star Break

Period 16 Stats

AB

AVG

R

HR

RBI

SB

160

.2688

26

1

18

0

IP

ERA

WHIP

K

W

SV

34

7.412

1.559

35

1

2

End of Period 16 Standings

League Standings

+/-

Overall Standings

+/-

5/15

-1

229 / 705

-28

There were no games Monday through Wednesday this week due to the All-Star Game. Regardless, it was not enjoyable to see my hitters produce only one home run in 160 at-bats during this abbreviated scoring period. As a result, I slipped in both the league and overall standings.

Since acquiring him via FAAB on June 12 as a replacement for the injured Danny Jansen, Omar Narvaez has hit a mere .154 with one home run and seven RBI over 74 plate appearances as my second catcher.

Lesson learned: If your second catcher is injured but has elite skills, it may be better to ride out his injury than pick up a lesser-skilled replacement off the waiver wire. In hindsight, I should have kept Danny Jansen and taken a zero at C2 for several weeks rather than dropping him for Narvaez.

July 24 FAAB - $196 FAAB remaining, spent $30

I'm still desperate for power and a C2 upgrade, but there are slim pickings on waivers.

Added Wil Myers (OF) for $25 (backup bid $11), dropped Steven Matz - Myers had been hitting well on his minor-league rehab assignment with a projected return over the next week.

Added Austin Nola (C) for $5 (backup bid $3), dropped Omar Narvaez - Jorge Alfaro was my priority, but Nola was second among my short list of C2 conditionals.

Period 17 (July 25 - 31)

Period 17 Stats

AB

AVG

R

HR

RBI

SB

277

.2816

45

11

43

5

IP

ERA

WHIP

K

W

SV

59.2

3.771

1.307

59

3

3

End of Period 17 Standings

League Standings

+/-

Overall Standings

+/-

5/15

0

185 / 705

+44

Finally a power surge! I had more home runs this week than the last three weeks combined, which gives you an idea of how poorly I drafted power. Jurickson Profar of all players was my standout performer this week with three bombs, while Starling Marte and J.T. Realmuto had two home runs apiece.

July 31 FAAB - $166 FAAB remaining, spent $8

Added Joe Barlow (P) for $8 (backup bid $1), dropped Diego Castillo - I'm still middle of the road in the saves category in my league, but am a couple saves within striking distance of gaining several points. Despite his blister and lengthy IL stint, Barlow is a better saves spec than Castillo. Aroldis Chapman and Scott Effross, who was still a member of the Cubs at the time waivers ran, were among my conditional bids as well. 

So too was Jake McCarthy, who I had ranked seventh in my conditionals behind superstars Aledmys Diaz, Jeimer Candelario and Ezequiel Duran.

Period 18 (August 1 - 7)

Period 18 Stats

AB

AVG

R

HR

RBI

SB

315

.2444

39

9

38

3

IP

ERA

WHIP

K

W

SV

51.2

3.331

1.091

47

6

3

End of Period 18 Standings

League Standings

+/-

Overall Standings

+/-

4/15

+1

177 / 705

+8

Positive momentum is on my side as I was able to continue producing on the hitting front, which is where I need the most help gaining ground in the standings. Vladimir Guerrero hit two homers and swiped two bags while hitting .385 for the week.

August 7 FAAB - $158 FAAB remaining, spent $17

Added Zach Jackson (P) for $9 (backup bid $1), dropped Joe Barlow - Barlow had been pitching multi-inning stints on his minor league rehab assignment, while Jonathan Hernandez has been used as Texas' closer. With Lou Trivino dealt to the Yankees, Jackson is a solid save spec and has been among the league leaders in the holds category all season.

Added Nicky Lopez (2B/SS) for $8 (no backup bid), dropped Kyle Farmer - I need stolen bases and Lopez offers more upside for that category than Farmer does.

Period 19 (August 8 - 14)

Period 19 Stats

AB

AVG

R

HR

RBI

SB

289

.2353

35

10

37

4

IP

ERA

WHIP

K

W

SV

51.2

4.529

1.297

52

4

3

End of Period 19 Standings

League Standings

+/-

Overall Standings

+/-

3/15

+1

189 / 705

-12

Somehow, despite a poor pitching week, I was able to move one point ahead of Brian Edwards' team to overtake third place in my ridiculously competitive Main Event league. I'll give the credit to rookie Vinnie Pasquantino, who hit four jacks over 22 at-bats for the week along with 12 runs-plus-RBI.

August 14 FAAB - $141 FAAB remaining, spent $12

Added Manuel Margot (OF) for $12 (backup bid $11), dropped Santiago Espinal - Prior to his knee injury, Margot had been raking for the Rays, looking like a true fantasy breakout player. He's not eligible to return until August 20, but he's an important stash with a power and speed combination that I so desperately need. Dropping Espinal hurt, as he was my first pickup of the season who contributed positively to my team, but he had been sharing time at the keystone with Cavan Biggio and not playing every day.

Vaughn Grissom, Joey Meneses and Andres Munoz were three other players I was very interested in acquiring this week, but I was still thrilled to land Margot by one FAAB dollar.

Period 20 (August 15 - 21)

Period 20 Stats

AB

AVG

R

HR

RBI

SB

325

.2400

39

10

32

7

IP

ERA

WHIP

K

W

SV

44.2

2.233

1.060

52

3

1

End of Period 20 Standings

League Standings

+/-

Overall Standings

+/-

3/15

0

186 / 705

+3

I left three strong starts from Eric Lauer, Nick Lodolo and Miles Mikolas on my bench while the trio combined for a 1.23 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 19 strikeouts over 22 innings. Again, on my bench. However, Nick Pivetta was sharp during his two-step week and I still had excellent pitching production overall.

August 21 FAAB - $129 FAAB remaining, spent $27

This was Dustin May week. I bid $89 of my remaining $129 FAAB dollars on the Dodgers' right-hander but landed an important save spec instead. I also need more middle infield depth on my roster after dropping Espinal, with Arroyo heading a lengthy MI conditional list that also included Espinal, Nick Madrigal and Brendan Donovan.

Added Clay Holmes (P) for $15 (backup bid $1), dropped Zach Jackson

Added Christian Arroyo (2B/SS/3B) for $8 (backup bid $3), dropped Wil Myers

Added Brusdar Graterol (P) for $4 (no backup bid), dropped Tyrone Taylor 

Parting Thoughts:

I'm still tracking behind the NFBC Main Event 80th percentile targets as of Week 20 in most of the hitting categories. The only category I'm performing ahead of the target in is runs scored.

80th Percentile Hitting Targets - NFBC Main Event

as of Week 20

 

BA

R

HR

RBI

SB

80th %

.2561

756

206

740

97

My Stats

.2514

762

162

663

79

On the pitching side, I'm right in line with the NFBC Main Event 80th percentile targets as of Week 20 in all categories except saves. However, I recently added Garrett Whitlock and Clay Holmes to my roster and am still very confident in my abilities to stream saves over the final seven weeks since I follow bullpens so closely.

80th Percentile Pitching Targets - NFBC Main Event

as of Week 20

 

ERA

WHIP

W

SV

K

80th %

3.419

1.150

68

53

1009

My Stats

3.433

1.143

67

44

1007

If you have any advice you're willing to share with me, please do so in the comments or on Twitter

Until next time!

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Rufe
Ryan manages the MLB Closer Grid and authors 'Closer Encounters'. He also contributes to the MLB draft kit and has been helping RotoWire subscribers through our 'Ask An Expert' feature since 2014. He's an NFBC enthusiast.
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