This article is part of our Man + Machine series.
We left off with some struggles and a plan to correct a few hiccups in the lineup assembly process. The goal was to continue utilizing the RotoWire MLB Lineup Optimizer while not leaning on it too heavily and losing track of the human element.Briefly recapping, the process of creating lineups became too complicated and disorganized incorporating the optimizer. And combined with a touch of poor luck and horrible pitching decisions, the end results weren't pretty. Skip back for more detail and analysis.
Thankfully, the simplified approach was more successful, and three of the four lineups assembled were solid and all four cashed.
I stuck to the plan of which contests to select, except Sunday at FanDuel when I targeted a few head-to-head matchups. The contest lobby wasn't appealing, as I prefer large double ups and 50/50s and not 40ish-entry contests.
You'll also note the Double Prizes contest in the FanDuel results. Contest selection is an important consideration in the daily racket. Multi-entry vs. single-entry tournaments, for example, is becoming a debated topic in the industry. Lineup strategies should be tailored according to the contest. It's a subject to touch on in the reflections.
| DraftKings | ||||
| Contest | Date | Finish | Points | Winnings |
| MLB MASSIVE $5 Double Up [$18,000 Gtd] (1/100) | July 12 | 1,139 | 123 | $10.00 |
| MLB $75K Moonshot [$75,000 Guaranteed] (1/Unl.) | July 12 | 5,060 | 123 | $6.00 |
| MLB $7K Solo Shot [$7,000 Guaranteed] (1/50) | July 9 | 213 | 145.55 | $4.00 |
| MLB $3 50/50 [Top 50% Win] | July 9 | 7 | 145.55 | $5.40 |
| FanDuel | ||||
| Contest | Date | Finish | Points | Winnings |
| MLB Head-to-head (Early Only) | July 12 | 1 | 17 | $1.80 |
| MLB Head-to-head (Early Only) | July 12 | 1 | 17 | $1.80 |
| MLB 50/50 League | July 9 | 40 | 42.5 | $3.60 |
| $10K Single Entry $2 Special (Double Prizes!) | July 9 | 1,176 | 42.5 | $5.00 |
Jose Fernandez was my building-block arm July 9. His price didn't reflect his upside due to his missed time. I assume. The optimizer had him among the top-tier arms in expected points, too.
At DraftKings, I paired Zack Greinke with Fernandez, which was enough to cash. Both lineups featured Ryan Raburn and Andre Ethier, two optimizer favorites. Taking a leap of faith on Drew Stubbs was completely machine influenced, and it paid off handsomely.
The DraftKings lineup went with a Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado-led Colorado stack, whereas FanDuel had Yasiel Puig and Adrian Gonzalez. All performed well, but better mixing and matching could have really piled on the points.
However, what is most important is the success of Raburn, Ethier and Stubbs, as they were highly recommended values, according to the optimizer.
Sunday, Johnny Cueto imploded against an injury-riddled Miami lineup. I start him in that spot 107 times out of a 100.
In both head-to-head matchups at FanDuel, he was the opposition's selection, and he carried a 43.9 percent ownership in the $75K Moonshot and 64.3 percent in the $5 Double Up.
Jake Arrieta was the pick, though, and I rolled with him next to Cueto at DraftKings. As a Cubs fan, it is difficult to select Arrieta at times because I'm bullish, and while he seems to always pass the eye test, I always fear my own favoritism. I also own him everywhere in seasonal formats.
You'll note the FanDuel lineups for Sunday were early-only entries.
The optimizer loved three players I started: Miguel Sano, Michael Taylor and Daniel Murphy. I personally leaned to Paul Goldschmidt, Jorge Soler along with Tulowitzki, Arenado and Gonzalez, again.
Hat tip to the optimizer for the Murphy love.
Reflections
- Sorting the players by value and points in the Choose Your Player Pool section of the optimizer is extremely valuable. It is a great starting point for identifying/confirming cheap fliers and lineup building blocks.
- Tulowitzki was 60.8 percent owned in the $5 Double Up contest I played Sunday at DraftKings, whereas just 16.6 percent owned in the $75K Moonshoot. At home facing a lefty, Tulowitzki was a lineup lock, yet the desire to be contrarian left him out of 83.4 percent of lineups in the Moonshoot. So arguably the No. 1 hitter in the player pool was barely owned. Trying to go against the grain is fine, but you're trying to grab the most fantasy points, too. Don't overthink player selections based on what you project their ownership to be.
- The optimizer isn't too shabby at finding sources of cap relief. Any player is capable of a 0-for-4 showing, and while the odds may increase the cheaper you go, don't be afraid to open up spending room for chalk arms by rolling out a cheap flier, especially when it was someone already on your radar.
What's Next?
The All-Star break limited the opportunities to jump into the action this week, so more of the same is the approach in the short term.
Entering a few more head-to-head matchups is in the plans, too.
Also, it'll be interesting to look deeper into the differences in ownership percentages between cash and GPP contests. The Tulowitzki numbers Sunday piqued my interest.
Additionally, tracking more of the optimizer's top values and their ownership percentages in contests should be helpful and worthwhile.
Until next time, hopefully there is more Arrieta than Cueto in our daily fortunes.
