Spring Training Job Battles: National League East

Ryan Boyer got our Spring Training Job Battles series started last week with the American League East. Up next is the National League East, with the rest of the divisions to follow in the next couple weeks.

The number in parenthesis is the player's NFBC ADP since 2/1

Atlanta Braves

Right Field (temporary): Bryan De La Cruz (567), Jarred Kelenic (588)

The Braves tend to pick their best nine players and stick with them for nearly every game, leaving little room for position battles on the offensive side. Once Ronald Acuna Jr. returns from knee surgery, that will likely be the case again, but there should be a starting spot available in right field for at least about a month. 

If the team goes with a platoon, Kelenic should get the majority of the starts as a left-handed hitter, but he hit just .231/.286/.393 in 131 games last year. He's still just 25 years old, but his prospect pedigree doesn't seem particularly relevant any more now that he owns an 86 wRC+ across 1,423 major-league plate appearances. 

That could open the door for De La Cruz, who signed a non-guaranteed contract in December after being non-tendered by the Pirates. His 90 wRC+ (the product of a .253/.297/.407 slash line) across 1,822 career MLB plate appearances is hardly better than Kelenic's, however.

Fifth/Sixth Starter: Grant Holmes (308), AJ Smith-Shawver (577), Ian Anderson (642), Hurston Waldrep (726), Bryce Elder (749)

Atlanta has one permanent spot available at the back of the rotation, plus another temporary vacancy until Spencer Strider makes it back from elbow surgery in late April or early May. Holmes is the perceived favorite, and his draft price reflects that. A first-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2014, Holmes finally reached the majors as a 28-year-old last season and looked quite good. In 68.1 innings as a swingman, he recorded a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, striking out 24.8 percent of opposing batters while walking 5.3 percent.

The rest of the contestants are young and talented but trending in the wrong direction. Anderson put himself on the map as a rookie back in 2020 with a 0.96 ERA across four playoff starts and is still just 26 years old. He spent the last two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery and struggled to a 5.00 ERA and 1.51 WHIP when we last saw him back in 2022. He's out of options, as is Holmes, which could tilt the needle toward the two of them as long as they look decent enough this spring.

Smith-Shawver has plenty of prospect pedigree and made his MLB debut ahead of schedule back in 2023, but he made just a single MLB appearance in 2024 while struggling to a 4.86 ERA in 20 Triple-A starts. Waldrep made his MLB debut just 11 months after being selected 23rd-overall in the 2023 draft but made two poor starts and then hit the injured list with elbow inflammation. He struggled with his command in the minors after his return and never made it back to the big leagues. Elder's 3.66 ERA across his first two seasons was unsupported by his peripherals, and it all came crashing down last year. He was fine (3.73 ERA) at Triple-A but spent most of his time there due to his awful 6.52 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 10 major-league starts. 

Miami Marlins

Catcher: Agustin Ramirez (507), Nick Fortes (680), Liam Hicks (749)

Ramirez, who arrived from the Yankees last July in the Jazz Chisholm trade, is probably the only member of the group who could make an impact in anything but an NL-only league, but the Marlins don't look anywhere close to competitive and seem unlikely to start his service-time clock. He hit .267/.358/.487 with 25 homers and 22 steals in the two highest levels of the minors last season, though he doesn't have a strong defensive reputation behind the plate. 

Fortes is the incumbent, but he's posted a wRC+ of 51 and 57 in the last two seasons. He does at least have a good defensive reputation. Hicks is a Rule 5 pick from the Tigers who's entering his age-26 season and has never played above Double-A. He walked more than he struck out at that level last season but hit just six home runs in 113 games. Like Ramirez, he might not be able to stick behind the plate. 

First Base/Left Field/Designated Hitter: Deyvison De Los Santos (513), Jonah Bride (537), Kyle Stowers (621), Matt Mervis (714), Griffin Conine (725), Eric Wagaman (750)

The Marlins are a mess all over, and particularly in this trio of bat-first positions. De Los Santos (a 1B/DH option only) is the only remotely exciting contestant, and he isn't considered likely to break camp with the team. He hit 40 homers across the two highest levels of the minors last season, though that came with a questionable approach (24.7 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate). The Marlins project to have one of the worst records in the league this year and are unlikely to start the 21-year-old's service-time clock right away.

Bride (also 1B/DH) produced a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 272 plate appearances last season, slashing .276/.357/.461 with 11 homers. His good plate discipline could make him interesting in deep OBP leagues, but the modest power looks like a mirage given his 33.7 percent hard hit rate.

Stowers, the first one on the list who can play left field, was once a fairly interesting prospect in the Orioles system, but he's now 27 years old and has struggled to a .208/.268/.332 slash line in 340 career MLB plate appearances. His very poor plate discipline (33.8 percent strikeout rate, 6.2 percent walk rate) has prevented his power (10.1 percent barrel rate) from having much of an impact.

Mervis seemed on the verge of establishing himself as the Cubs' everyday first baseman two springs ago but has earned very limited big-league opportunities to date, slashing a miserable .155/.222/.259 in 36 games. His numbers also took a downturn at the Triple-A level last season, but perhaps a move to a new organization will get him going again.

Conine, another left-handed left field candidate like Stowers, hit .268/.326/.451 in a 30-game cup of coffee as a 26-year-old last season. The son of former Marlin Jeff Conine, he has major swing-and-miss issues, striking out 31.5 percent of the time in his brief debut and running strikeout rates of 40.1 percent, 36.9 percent, 34.9 percent and 29.5 percent over his last four minor-league campaigns.

Wagaman has experience in both the infield and outfield, unlike the rest of this group. He was non-tendered by the Angels over the winter after hitting .250/.270/.403 in his 18-game debut. Like the rest of this list (outside of De Los Santos), he's no longer all that young, having turned 27 in August. 

Center Field: Derek Hill (691), Dane Myers (735), Victor Mesa Jr. (751)

Hill has played for five different organizations at the MLB level across five seasons, hitting an unimpressive .233/.276/.353 in 476 plate appearances. He has a pretty good glove for the position, and his 11 homers and 16 stolen bases for his career hint at the possibility of deep-league fantasy value if he carves out a true everyday role.

Myers is in his age-28 season and has just 66 MLB games to his name. He's hit a decent .265/.315/.407 in those games but struck out 30.9 percent of the time. Mesa has youth on his side (23) and is already out of options, which helps his chances of making the team. He had a below-average batting line (93 wRC+) last year at Triple-A and is dealing with hamstring tightness this spring. 

Closer: Calvin Faucher (379), Jesus Tinoco (545), Andrew Nardi (739)

The Marlins probably won't generate too many saves this season, but Faucher looks like the favorite to get whatever's available. He picked up six of the first seven saves after Tanner Scott was traded last season but then hit the IL with a shoulder impingement, so he'll have to prove his health this spring. His 3.19 ERA and 26.8 percent strikeout rate last season were more setup man numbers than closer material, however, and his 1.40 WHIP and 11.1 percent walk rate were both poor.

Tinoco got the next opportunity after Faucher got hurt and looks like his biggest competition. He passed through four organizations last season but found his groove down the stretch with Miami, posting a 30:5 K:BB, 2.03 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 26.2 innings. Nardi struggled to a 5.07 ERA last season, but the ERA estimators (including a 2.77 SIERA and 2.76 xERA) were much kinder. He missed the end of last season due to an elbow injury and is dealing with lower-back inflammation early in camp but could be an option if healthy. 

New York Mets

Second Base: Luisangel Acuna (438), Jeff McNeil (469), Ronny Mauricio (665)

McNeil has held this job for several seasons, but he'll turn 33 in April and has been in a multi-year decline, with his wRC+ dipping from 140 to 100 to 97 over the last three years. That could open the door for Acuna, who manager Carlos Mendoza said will have a "huge role" for the Mets this season. Whether "huge" means "everyday second baseman" or is coachspeak for "utility player" is unclear. The situation is muddled by Acuna's unusual 2024 season, which saw him struggle to a .654 in 131 Triple-A games but then look entirely MLB-ready in a brief cup of coffee late in the season, posting a .966 OPS in 14 contests.

Mauricio had a 26-game espresso of his own back in 2023 but tore his ACL in winter ball that year and underwent surgery. He's still working his way back and isn't expected to get into game action until mid-March, so it would make sense for the Mets to give him the chance to get into rhythm in the minors at the start of the year, but he was a highly-rated prospect before the injury and could get the chance to claim the job once he proves his health. 

Left/Center Field/Designated Hitter: Brandon Nimmo (166), Jesse Winker (478), Starling Marte (505), Jose Siri (549), Tyrone Taylor (730)

Nimmo will start in either left or center field most games, provided the plantar fasciitis which affected him last year and into the offseason doesn't keep him off the field. How much time he spends in left field versus center will depend on who else among this group earns regular at-bats.

Winker, a LF/DH option only, enjoyed a bounceback season last year, slashing .253/.360/.405 with 14 homers in 508 plate appearances. He also stole 14 bases, but all 14 of those came with the run-happy Nationals, with the Mets shutting him down on the basepaths after acquiring him at the deadline. For his career, he owns an .841 OPS against righties but a .661 OPS against lefties, so expect him to fill the large side of a platoon, mostly as the designated hitter.

Marte was once a strong defensive center fielder capable of stealing 40-plus bases, but he's now 36 years old and has spent just 13 innings in center over the last three years, with none of them coming in 2024. He's also dealing with knee issues early in camp. He's probably on the short side of a platoon with Winker as the designated hitter, but the Mets could opt for a worse defensive alignment with one of those two in left field and Nimmo in center.

Siri is an excellent defensive center fielder but comes with major question marks at the plate. For his career, he owns a .266 on-base percentage, and he slipped to a .187/.255/.366 slash line in 130 games with the Rays last season. He does at least have the power-speed profile fantasy managers crave, managing 27 homers and 22 steals per 600 plate appearances over the course of his career.

Taylor also has a glove capable of handling center, and it comes with a stronger bat than Siri's, albeit not a particularly notable one. For his career, he's hitting .241/.296/.438, though his 22 homers and 13 steals per 600 plate appearances are less impressive than Siri's numbers. 

Fourth/Fifth Starter: Tylor Megill (556), Griffin Canning (639), Paul Blackburn (713)

Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes and David Peterson will take the Mets' first three rotation spots in some order, but with Sean Manaea (oblique) and Frankie Montas (lat) set to miss Opening Day, a couple of temporary spots are open at the back of the rotation.

Megill produced a career-best (though hardly impressive) 4.04 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) last season, with a strong 27.0 percent strikeout rate offset by a poor 9.5 percent walk rate. That strikeout rate represented a career high and was a big jump from his 18.5 percent mark from the year prior. 

Canning owns a career 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP and had an even worse 5.19 ERA and 1.40 WHIP last year, but there's some hope that he could finally live up to his prospect pedigree now that he's left an Angels organization which hasn't been the best at player development in recent years.

Blackburn underwent back surgery in October to repair a cerebrospinal fluid leak, but he was only slightly behind at the start of camp and made his spring debut Wednesday. He struggled over the first five years of his career but settled in as a passable back-end starter over his last three, posting a 4.43 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. 

Philadelphia Phillies

Closer: Jordan Romano (226), Orion Kerkering (366), Matt Strahm (576), Jose Alvarado (695)

The Phillies signed Romano to a one-year, $8.5 million contract in December after he was non-tendered by the Blue Jays following a disappointing, injury-filled season. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in July, and if he proves to be healthy this spring, he'll be the favorite to win the Phillies closer job.

That is, if the Phillies even have a closer job in the first place. While Craig Kimbrel and Carlos Estevez have had periods as a traditional closer, the Phillies have been happy to use a committee for much of Rob Thomson's tenure. A committee would appear very likely if Romano fails to rebound this spring, and it could even be the plan if he looks good.

If one of the alternate options is to win the job outright, Kerkering is the favorite. The 23-year-old owns a 2.32 ERA and a 29.5 percent strikeout rate through 66 MLB innings, allowing just two home runs thanks in part to a 54 percent groundball rate. Those look like closer numbers, but so do Strahm's in his two years with Philadelphia: 2.69 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, backed by a 31.8 percent strikeout rate and a 5.4 percent walk rate. 

Then there's Alvarado. He led the Phillies with 13 saves last year but also saw his ERA jump from 1.74 to 4.09 while his strikeout rate dropped from 37.2 percent to 24.4 percent. If he's back to 2023 form, however, it's not hard to envision him leading the team in saves.

Washington Nationals

Third/Fourth/Fifth Starter: DJ Herz (320), Mitchell Parker (578), Trevor Williams (586), Michael Soroka (617), Shinnosuke Ogasawara (718), Cade Cavalli (696)

MacKenzie Gore is a lock for the top of the Nationals' rotation, and Jake Irvin seems fairly safe behind him. The picture behind them is unclear, but there are several candidates who look capable of providing deep-league fantasy value.

Herz's draft price reflects the fact that he's the only member of the group whose fantasy appeal might realistically extend beyond those deep leagues. He's produced walk rates north of 13.5 percent at every minor-league stop over the last three years but managed a passable 9.4 percent walk rate in his 19-start MLB debut last season. Combined with a strong 27.7 percent strikeout rate, that led to an acceptable enough 4.16 ERA and a promising 3.77 SIERA. He reportedly cleaned up his mechanics over the winter, offering reason to dream on a breakout, but he's not even a lock for the rotation out of camp.

Parker began last season in the minors but made his big-league debut in mid-April and held onto a rotation spot for the rest of the year. The lefty produced fine but forgettable numbers across 29 starts, posting a 4.29 ERA (a near match for his 4.25 SIERA) and 1.30 WHIP. His 6.7 percent walk rate was good, but his 20.6 percent strikeout rate was slightly sub-par.

Williams' career numbers (4.30 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 19.7 percent strikeout rate, 7.6 percent walk rate) look much like Parker's, but he looked much better last year in 13 starts on either side of a flexor strain. His 2.03 ERA was significantly better than his ERA estimators, but he produced a career-high (though still unremarkable) 22.7 strikeout rate and an above-average 45.4 percent groundball rate and should be able to outproduce his career results if he can manage to do that again. 

Soroka signed a one-year, $9 million deal in December and will be given the chance to earn a rotation spot. He recorded a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP from 2018 to 2020 with Atlanta, but that was two Achilles tears ago. Since then, he owns a 5.22 ERA and 1.41 WHIP across 112 innings as a swingman, with his control deserting him (11.4 percent walk rate) and his previously strong groundball rate falling to just below league average (41.7 percent). His 2.75 ERA and 39.0 percent strikeout rate in 36 innings out of the pen last season suggests the Nationals should keep him there.

Ogasawara signed a two-year, $3.5 million deal in January and is in the rotation mix, but his numbers in Japan were unimpressive, so it's hard to imagine him dominating hitters at the highest level. His 3.12 ERA looks much worse when you realize that the league-average NPB ERA last season was 2.96. His 3.7 percent walk rate was outstanding, but he couldn't miss bats in Japan, striking out just 13.6 percent of opposing batters, so major-league hitters could be set to tee off on him.

Finally, Cavalli is considered healthy this spring after missing the last two years recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the Nationals are continuing to take it slow. Though he made a trio of rehab appearances last season, Washington intends to manage his workload early in the season and keep him as an option for the second half, which makes him tough to draft in most formats.