15-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 5/31/2025
2025 Stats
W-L
2-4
ERA
5.22
WHIP
1.54
K
35
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Miller had a breakout sophomore campaign with outcomes that would have been even better if Seattle had a better offense to support him. Somewhere, Felix Hernandez nods in approval and is offering Miller a supporting hug. Miller made 18 quality starts, winning 12 of them, while using a septet of pitches highlighted by the debut of a fantastic splitter. Miller watched other teammates use the pitch effectively in 2023 and honed it himself over the winter. The addition of the splitter paired extremely well with his fastball, as both pitches had opponents' batting averages below .200 and whiff rates above 25 percent. The league hit nearly 75 points worse off the fastball now that it had a more effective partner in crime than the traditional changeup from 2023. The pitch change particularly helped Miller against lefties who hit nearly 100 points lower than they did in 2023 and helped him become more split neutral in 2024 compared to his imbalanced 2023 season. Miller has everything needed to take his career and production to another level, if the Seattle offense comes along for the ride in 2025. Read Past Outlooks
Set to return Saturday
Miller (elbow) is expected to make his return from the injured list to start Saturday's game against the Twins, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
After spending about two weeks recovering from right elbow inflammation, Miller will avoid a rehab assignment and is all set to rejoin Seattle's rotation. It's unclear if the 26-year-old right-hander will have any workload limitations Saturday, but he'll square off with a Minnesota offense that's struggled a bit lately as he tries to improve his 5.22 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 35:21 K:BB on the season. Miller will be taking the rotation spot of Logan Evans, who was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma on Wednesday, and Emerson Hancock also figures to be in danger of losing his roster spot to make space for Miller.
After spending about two weeks recovering from right elbow inflammation, Miller will avoid a rehab assignment and is all set to rejoin Seattle's rotation. It's unclear if the 26-year-old right-hander will have any workload limitations Saturday, but he'll square off with a Minnesota offense that's struggled a bit lately as he tries to improve his 5.22 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 35:21 K:BB on the season. Miller will be taking the rotation spot of Logan Evans, who was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma on Wednesday, and Emerson Hancock also figures to be in danger of losing his roster spot to make space for Miller.
Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
91
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
89
How many pitches does Bryce Miller generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Bryce Miller generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2025
-22%
BAA vs LHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023vs Left | .244 | 148 | 61 | 155 | 27 | |||
| Since 2023vs Right | .209 | 177 | 31 | 140 | 15 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .228 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 0 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .293 | 19 | 8 | 27 | 3 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .207 | 85 | 32 | 72 | 15 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .192 | 86 | 13 | 59 | 6 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .303 | 47 | 16 | 70 | 12 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .200 | 72 | 10 | 54 | 6 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-37%
ERA at Home
2025
-16%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023Home | 2.92 | 1.02 | 191.0 | 9.2 | 2.4 | ||||
| Since 2023Away | 4.66 | 1.20 | 160.1 | 7.3 | 2.3 | ||||
| 2025Home | 4.79 | 1.45 | 20.2 | 7.8 | 5.2 | ||||
| 2025Away | 5.68 | 1.63 | 19.0 | 8.1 | 4.3 | ||||
| 2024Home | 1.96 | 0.87 | 96.1 | 10.4 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2024Away | 4.07 | 1.10 | 84.0 | 6.4 | 2.4 | ||||
| 2023Home | 3.65 | 1.08 | 74.0 | 8.0 | 1.9 | ||||
| 2023Away | 5.18 | 1.22 | 57.1 | 8.3 | 1.6 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Bryce Miller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
1.67K/9
7.9BB/9
4.8HR/9
0.7Fastball
94.4 mphERA
5.22WHIP
1.54BABIP
.325GB/FB
1.00Left On Base
66.9%Exit Velocity
83.8 mphBarrels/BBE
3.6%Spin Rate
2281 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
24.1%Swinging Strike
9.7%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
Miller is a fascinating pitcher to study because we expect to see rookie pitchers struggle in some areas, but in this case, there is not any one thing that sticks out as the source of his 4.32 ERA. Miller was stingy with walks, was tough to hit, and stranded runners at a league-average rate. His extreme flyball outcomes left him more susceptible to homers than other starters, but even his 1.2 HR/9 ratio was not terribly out of whack for someone with his volume of flyball outcomes. Simply put, this was a solid foundational beginning to what could be a bright pitching future if he can fine-tune some things. His whiffiest pitch is his fastball, which speaks to a need for him to find a secondary offering that can get swings and misses when needed. A six-pitch repertoire may be better suited if tuned down to four pitches. Seattle has steadily increased his workload, so 170+ innings is there for the taking if he is ready for it.
More Fantasy News
Weekend return possible
Miller (elbow) said he "feel[s] good" after Monday's bullpen session and could return from the 15-day injured list to rejoin the Seattle rotation as soon as this weekend against the Twins, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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May avoid rehab assignment
Miller (elbow) said he will throw a simulated game Friday in Houston and will operate on a six-day routine moving forward, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Plays catch Wednesday
Miller (elbow) played catch in the outfield prior to Wednesday's game against the White Sox, MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Shut down with elbow inflammation
The Mariners placed Miller on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation.
ANALYSIS
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Worst start of season
Miller (2-4) allowed seven runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out three over five-plus innings to take the loss versus the Blue Jays on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Finding success with new splitter
Miller has induced a swing-and-miss on 33 percent of the swings on his new splitter through four starts, per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times.
ANALYSIS
Miller has pitched well early in 2024 with a 1.85 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 24:7 K:BB across 24.1 innings, and the splitter has clearly played a role in that success. The right-hander is also using the new pitch at a decent clip of 19.4 percent, trailing only his four-seam fastball and sinker. It's still a small sample size, but Miller is building on his strong 2023 rookie campaign.
Miller has pitched well early in 2024 with a 1.85 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 24:7 K:BB across 24.1 innings, and the splitter has clearly played a role in that success. The right-hander is also using the new pitch at a decent clip of 19.4 percent, trailing only his four-seam fastball and sinker. It's still a small sample size, but Miller is building on his strong 2023 rookie campaign.