This article is part of our The Z Files series.
STARTING PITCHER
STARTING PITCHER
The Disappointments
Obviously, with just under four months left in the campaign, there's a lot of season left. That said, like it's been for the past few years, top-end pitching is a safe investment. At minimum, it's not riskier than top hitters. Twelve of our initial top-20 hurlers are in the current top 40. Injuries account for some of the misses as Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray and Yu Darvish have all spend time on the disabled list, though to be fair, Ray and especially Darvish weren't as sharp as expected when healthy. Ray's prospects for a strong second half are greater than Darvish's, as the Cubs righty has been out of sorts all season.
Carlos Carrasco's 4.23 ERA has him just outside the current top-40. However, a 3.63 FIP and 3.53 xFIP suggest he'll make the cut down the road if he keeps pitching at his current pace. Further, while Carrasco's swinging strike rate is down a tick from last season, his strikeout percent is disproportionately lower. The good kind of regression began in his start Wednesday night where Carrasco fanned 10 Brewers in seven frames.
Jose Quintana is also posted a double-digit punchout effort Wednesday night in a no-decision against the Phillies. He'll probably be a back-end top-40 starter for the rest of the season but doesn't look like top-20 guy most expected. He's always worked with a small margin of error, often outpitching his peripherals. This season, his strikeouts are up a tick, but his command and control have been off, resulting in more homers and walks than usual.
A 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 61 strikeouts sure seem like top-40 material, don't they? Those, of course, are the surface stats possessed by Shohei Ohtani. Since he's only tossed 49.1 frames, he's just outside the present top 40. The performance isn't disappointing, it's just that some were too aggressive with his innings projection. The Angels have demonstrated on a couple of occasions they plan to temper the workload of their two-way phenom. He's currently pacing for 135-145 IP, right where I expected. I don't see a change, even if the Angels need a push down the stretch. He's far too valuable long term. Expect him to get another break from pitching wrapped around the All-Star break.
For as "right" about Ohtani I might be, my unbridled affection for Zack Godley more than makes up for that. While the panel all had Ohtani inside their top 100 overall compared to my 151 rank, my 106 overall ranking for Godley was the most aggressive of the group. With 20 or so more starts, Godley can certainly right the ship, but the damage has been done. Even if he taps into the overused notion of upside, his season-long numbers will fall well short of what I initially projected. And, to be honest, even with the humidor doing its thing, Godley's stuff is nowhere near its effectiveness from last season. His velocity is down and the curveball that had so many on the bandwagon in the spring isn't maturing as expected.
The Surprises
It's as if someone finally told Blake Snell walking hitters is a bad thing, and he finally believed them. Truth be told, we saw hints of Snell's breakout last season as he recorded an eight percent walk rate after the break, which is where it sits through the first two-plus months of 2018. So, why weren't we more bullish on the lefty coming into the season? Baseball is flush with pitchers exhibiting improved control for a stretch, only to revert to previous levels. In fact, my favorite example shares Snell's last name, as Ian Snell posted a 2.9 BB/9 in 2007, making many sleeper lists, only to follow up with seasons of 4.9, 5.2, 4.9 and 5.5. I promise, when we discuss pitchers next spring, I'll be on the cautious side with Snell, reticent to expect him to maintain all of his 2018 control gains – though, because of the 2017 second half, my penalty won't be as severe as it could be.
I, and many others, have talked about Patrick Corbin a lot so I won't belabor. His slider and sinker are wack. So much so, Corbin is getting away with less velocity. He had a couple of hiccups in May and will likely have a few more. But, so long as he avoids injury, a concern given his high slider usage, he has the looks of a top-30 arm the rest of the season.
Let's call it a group fail on Charlie Morton, checking in as our 51st overall starter back in March. He's showing some cracks in the armor, surrendering a pair of homers in each of his last two appearances, but he was facing the Yankees and Red Sox. All this means is he may not be truly elite, but he's a whole lot better than the original composite rank of 212 we gave him.
Mike Foltynewicz is turning a lot of heads, but there are several yellow flags in his underlying metrics despite an actual 2.87 ERA supported by a 3.05 FIP and 2.65 xFIP. His walk rate is on the rise for the second season in a row. While a 30 percent strikeout rate is a marked improvement over the 20 percent mark recorded the previous few seasons, his nine percent swinging strike rate is the second lowest of his five-year career and doesn't come close to supporting his strikeout rate. Color me concerned.
I'll end this section with a few words on Tyson Ross. Coming into the season, I expressed concern as the recent results of those returning from thoracic outlet syndrome wasn't encouraging. Granted, the sample isn't as great as those coming back from Tommy John surgery, so this was more anecdotal on my part, but I had Ross in the "show me" section of my spreadsheet. Well, I may not be from Missouri, but he's shown me plenty. I'm still concerned long term, though the aforementioned Foltynewicz had a similar procedure. I'm wary of Ross in dynasty format, but have no issue riding him this season.
RELIEF PITCHER
Let's save the granular closer analysis for the end of the season, as it usually doesn't age well. We're at the point of the season where two saves in two days can jump a guy up five spots, while one multi-run blown save can drop him the same number of rungs.
Thus concludes the three-week comparison of expected to current ranking for the entire player pool. Maybe I'll take another look around the All-Star break. Next week, I'll discuss some take-home lessons derived from this exercise, some hinted at in the discussion, and other stuff I've been thinking about as I idle at traffic lights or do my dishes.
