This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks for Saturday, February 22
Friday's slate was solid overall, going 4-3 for +1.0 units. A positive day is a positive day and you always take those when you can get them. The Saturday slate is a slight increase in terms of quality from Friday, but not by that much. This weekend overall is a bit of a disappointment. That said, I've managed to build out what I believe is a very strong card that should yield another winning day. Here's a taste of what's on my docket.
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Tony Gwynn Legacy
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (-175) @ San Diego State Aztecs (+135) | Total: 12.5
Betting on West Coast teams in general is not something I like to do. If you're looking for a thrill, bet on a team out west and watch the roller coaster go up and down like a crypto currency. Typically, I am very selective about which teams I bet on and when. Almost always, it's when there's a big pitching advantage.
UC Santa Barbara is often regarded as one of the best mid-major teams in college baseball. The reason is simple – they can pitch. It seems like every year they have an incredibly deep rotation with a good bullpen, which is usually why people like to back them as a team to make Omaha. Their ace, Tyler Bremner, could very well be the second-best pitcher in the country and may end up being a top-five pick this summer. But there is someone else emerging as a superstar and is flying up draft boards for 2026 — 6-foot-5 sophomore Jackson Flora.
Flora worked primarily out of the bullpen last year. In 23 appearances (four starts), he had a 3.83 ERA with a 40/25 strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio in 47 innings. He looks poised to make a second-year leap. Flora's five shutout innings with six strikeouts and zero walks against Campbell last weekend was a good start to his season. What stood out last week was the jump in stuff. Flora threw 19 pitches at 98 miles per hour (MPH) or better, touching 99 three times, flashing a plus sweeper in the low 80s, a solid change piece around 88 MPH and a slider in the mid-80s. Considering his advanced repertoire as a sophomore, he could be trending as a first-rounder for 2026.
Facing an Aztec offense that struggled last weekend against Nebraska and Grand Canyon (scored a combined five runs in both games), Flora could be set up for success again. Last year, San Diego State's offense only managed 41 homers as a team while batting .268. It doesn't appear they are that much better in the power department in 2025. A few of their hitters are off to hot starts thus far in the small sample size. Zane Kelly (.545 average/1.479 OPS), Nevan Noonan (.385 average/.875 OPS) and Daniel Arambula (.348 average/.776 OPS) are pacing this Aztec lineup early. If Flora continues to spot his ridiculous stuff the way he did last week, the Gauchos should be in good shape. Limit the free base runners and mistake pitches and the sophomore pitcher should be able to navigate this offense nicely.
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Xavier Cardenas will get the ball for San Diego State. As a starter last year, he was – how can I put this kindly – not good. In 13 starts (14 appearances), he walked 59 batters in 67 innings, which helped contribute to a bloated 6.58 ERA. Though his 5.87 SIERA suggests he pitched a little bit better than his final numbers, it seems like a plus-matchup for the UC Santa Barbara lineup. I've mentioned this a lot, but you would be surprised how many Division I (DI) pitchers can't consistently throw strikes – most big innings happen because of the free passes.
The UC Santa Barbara offense isn't anything special. It wasn't last year, though it was probably better, and it's not this year. However, if they can get to Cardenas early and record some runs for their starting pitcher they should be in a good spot. Jack Holman is off to a roaring start (.500 average, 1.765 OPS, four homers) as is Jonathan Mendez (.429 average, 1.526 OPS, two homers). A couple of other hitters are batting .400 to start the year as well. It should be enough offense for a game against the Aztecs.
There are advantageous matchups everywhere for UC Santa Barbara, so the fact we're getting -175 with a stud pitcher is a play we have to take. I would imagine this line gets smashed before the opening pitch on the 9:00 p.m. ET start time, likely out to well past -200. Let's ride the Gauchos this Saturday night.
College Baseball Best Bet Today
Pick: UC Santa Barbara ML (-175 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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