Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Start Me Up

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Updated on September 18, 2023 12:19AM EST

I've been thinking a lot about playing time lately. Skills projections are more science than art, but playing time lacks the same reliance on science. The focus is on the player's history, as opposed to how the entire field of players responds to a certain level of recent playing time.

History demonstrates players with "X" years of "Y" innings rarely come close to recent totals, yet we project the high totals. The same is true for batters and plate appearances.

Things can change, but with only two weeks left in the season, we're looking at an inordinate number of pitchers with at least 30 starts. Here is last season's distribution:

GS	No. of pitchers
33	4
32	17
31	13
30	9
Total	43

Including this weekend, there are 16 more days in the season, so the maximum number of remaining starts is three, with the slim chance of four. To reach 30, a hurler needs to currently be at 27.

GS	No. of pitchers
31	5
30	9
29	17
28	14
27	13
Total	58

There is a chance a handful of pitchers start 34 games. There will almost no doubt be more than last season's four with 33 starts and 17 with 32 starts. Granted, innings are important too, but those are also tracking higher in this group. Projecting the number of starts for some pitchers in 2024 is going to be challenging.

As for this week, there are 95 games, a bit more than an average

History demonstrates players with "X" years of "Y" innings rarely come close to recent totals, yet we project the high totals. The same is true for batters and plate appearances.

Things can change, but with only two weeks left in the season, we're looking at an inordinate number of pitchers with at least 30 starts. Here is last season's distribution:

GS	No. of pitchers
33	4
32	17
31	13
30	9
Total	43

Including this weekend, there are 16 more days in the season, so the maximum number of remaining starts is three, with the slim chance of four. To reach 30, a hurler needs to currently be at 27.

GS	No. of pitchers
31	5
30	9
29	17
28	14
27	13
Total	58

As for this week, there are 95 games, a bit more than an average period. When in doubt, keep in mind rotations will be in greater flux next week with some starters being shut down, or held back for the playoffs, so this is the time to pull out all of the stops.

As always, the schedules are pulled from the Probable Starters page, so please direct questions in that direction. I'm happy to address rankings inquiries below.

UPDATED: Monday September 18, 12:20 AM ET

Week of Sept. 18-24

Mixed

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comments
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	PHI, @WAS
2	Freddy Peralta	MIL	@STL, @MIA	2.55 ERA and .51 WHIP with 23 K and 1 BB over last 17.2 IP
3	Justin Verlander	HOU	BAL, KC
4	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	@MIA
5	Tarik Skubal	DET	@OAK
6	Framber Valdez	HOU	KC
7	Luis Castillo	SEA	@OAK
8	Zack Wheeler	PHI	@ATL, NYM	Risky rematch vs. Braves, but needs to make a statement for the playoffs
9	Blake Snell	SD	COL
10	Zac Gallen	ARI	SF
11	Corbin Burnes	MIL	@STL
12	Max Fried	ATL	@WAS	Missing time has him fresh down the stretch
13	Tyler Glasnow	TB	TOR
14	Zach Eflin	TB	LAA
15	Pablo Lopez	MIN	LAA
16	Gerrit Cole	NYY	TOR
17	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	@LAD, @OAK
18	Sonny Gray	MIN	LAA
19	Justin Steele	CHC	PIT
20	George Kirby	SEA	@OAK
21	Kevin Gausman	TOR	@NYY
22	Kodai Senga	NYM	@MIA
23	Logan Webb	SF	@ARI
24	Joe Ryan	MIN	@CIN, LAA
25	Bobby Miller	LAD	DET
26	Chris Bassitt	TOR	@ TB
27	Jose Berrios	TOR	@NYY
28	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	NYM	Deserves better than a 2-4 record
29	Merrill Kelly	ARI	SF
30	Aaron Civale	TB	LAA
31	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	BOS, SEA
32	Tanner Bibee	CLE	BAL
33	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	BOS, SEA	Rangers leaning on him to turn around with Scherzer out
34	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SF
35	Lance Lynn	LAD	DET, SF	Allowing homers is not a good thing
36	Kyle Bradish	BAL	@HOU	Good rehearsal for playoff ball
37	Lucas Giolito	CLE	@ KC
38	Charlie Morton	ATL	@WAS
39	Braxton Garrett	MIA	NYM
40	Ryan Pepiot	LAD	DET, SF	Outpitching peripherals, but good home matchups
41	Michael King	NYY	TOR
42	Reid Detmers	LAA	@ TB
43	JP Sears	OAK	SEA, DET
44	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	MIL
45	Hyun Jin Ryu	TOR	@ TB
46	Bryan Woo	SEA	@OAK, @TEX
47	Chris Sale	BOS	CWS
48	Hunter Greene	CIN	MIN
49	Mitch Keller	PIT	@CHC
50	Seth Lugo	SD	COL
51	Griffin Canning	LAA	@ TB
52	Jordan Wicks	CHC	COL
53	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	@NYY, @ TB
54	Andrew Abbott	CIN	PIT
55	Zack Littell	TB	TOR
56	Javier Assad	CHC	PIT, COL
57	Reese Olson	DET	@LAD
58	Brayan Bello	BOS	@TEX
59	Wade Miley	MIL	@STL
60	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	COL
61	J.P. France	HOU	KC
62	Bailey Ober	MIN	@CIN
63	Joey Lucchesi	NYM	@MIA
64	Mike Clevinger	CWS	@WAS, @BOS
65	Ranger Suarez	PHI	NYM
66	Kenta Maeda	MIN	@CIN
67	Logan Gilbert	SEA	@TEX
68	Eury Perez	MIA	NYM
69	Michael Wacha	SD	COL, STL
70	Bryce Elder	ATL	PHI
71	Nick Pivetta	BOS	CWS
72	Kutter Crawford	BOS	@TEX, CWS
73	Logan Allen	CLE	@ KC
74	Jose Quintana	NYM	@PHI
75	Cal Quantrill	CLE	@ KC, BAL
76	Sawyer Gipson-Long	DET	@OAK
77	Tanner Houck	BOS	@TEX
78	Jameson Taillon	CHC	PIT
79	Mix 12 Reliever
80	Cole Ragans	KC	@HOU
81	Gavin Williams	CLE	BAL
82	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	@ TB
83	Chase Silseth	LAA	@MIN
84	Mix 15 Reliever
85	Taj Bradley	TB	LAA, TOR
86	Shane Bieber	CLE	BAL
87	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	TOR, ARI
88	Aaron Nola	PHI	@ATL
89	Cristian Javier	HOU	BAL
90	Carlos Rodon	NYY	ARI
91	Hunter Brown	HOU	BAL
92	Taijuan Walker	PHI	NYM
93	Ben Lively	CIN	MIN, PIT
94	Tyler Anderson	LAA	@MIN
95	Joe Boyle	OAK	DET
96	John Means	BAL	@HOU, @CLE
97	Bailey Falter	PIT	@CHC
98	Kyle Wright	ATL	PHI, @WAS
99	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	@CLE
100	Edward Cabrera	MIA	NYM, MIL
101	Bryce Miller	SEA	@TEX
102	Johan Oviedo	PIT	@CIN
103	Adrian Houser	MIL	@STL, @MIA
104	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	DET
105	Dane Dunning	TEX	SEA
106	Sean Manaea	SF	@LAD
107	Alex Cobb	SF	@ARI, @LAD
108	Chase Anderson	COL	@ SD
109	Jose Butto	NYM	@MIA, @PHI
110	Alex Faedo	DET	@LAD
111	Gavin Stone	LAD	SF
112	Connor Seabold	COL	@ SD
113	Brandon Williamson	CIN	PIT
114	Keaton Winn	SF	@LAD
115	Dean Kremer	BAL	@CLE
116	Michael Lorenzen	PHI	@ATL
117	Miles Mikolas	STL	MIL
118	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	@NYY
119	Randy Vasquez	NYY	ARI
120	Josiah Gray	WAS	CWS
121	Dakota Hudson	STL	@ SD
122	Kyle Gibson	BAL	@HOU
123	Dylan Cease	CWS	@BOS
124	Brady Singer	KC	CLE, @HOU
125	Johnny Cueto	MIA	MIL
126	Jon Gray	TEX	BOS
127	Ryan Feltner	COL	@CHC
128	Ty Blach	COL	@ SD, @CHC
129	Ross Stripling	SF	@LAD
130	Joey Wentz	DET	@OAK
131	Drew Rom	STL	MIL, @ SD
132	Zack Greinke	KC	CLE
133	Ryne Nelson	ARI	@NYY
134	Connor Phillips	CIN	MIN
135	Kenny Rosenberg	LAA	@MIN
136	Luis Ortiz	PIT	@CIN
137	David Peterson	NYM	@PHI
138	Alec Marsh	KC	CLE
139	Jack Flaherty	BAL	@CLE
140	Jordan Lyles	KC	@HOU
141	Jose Urena	CWS	@WAS
142	Paul Blackburn	OAK	SEA
143	Luis Medina	OAK	DET
144	Zach Davies	ARI	@NYY
145	Matt Waldron	SD	STL
146	Andre Jackson	PIT	@CIN
147	Chris Flexen	COL	@CHC
148	Pedro Avila	SD	STL
149	Zack Thompson	STL	MIL
150	Jake Irvin	WAS	ATL
151	Quinn Priester	PIT	@CHC
152	Joan Adon	WAS	CWS, ATL
153	Jesse Scholtens	CWS	@WAS
154	Jackson Rutledge	WAS	CWS
155	Adam Wainwright	STL	MIL, @ SD	Rooting for No. 200
156	Touki Toussaint	CWS	@BOS
157	Tylor Megill	NYM	@PHI
158	Kyle Muller	OAK	SEA
159	Patrick Corbin	WAS	ATL
160	Trevor Williams	WAS	ATL

American League

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comment
1	Justin Verlander	HOU	BAL, KC
2	Tarik Skubal	DET	@OAK
3	Framber Valdez	HOU	KC
4	Luis Castillo	SEA	@OAK
5	Tyler Glasnow	TB	TOR
6	Zach Eflin	TB	LAA
7	Pablo Lopez	MIN	LAA
8	Gerrit Cole	NYY	TOR
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	@LAD, @OAK
10	Sonny Gray	MIN	LAA
11	George Kirby	SEA	@OAK
12	Kevin Gausman	TOR	@NYY
13	Joe Ryan	MIN	@CIN, LAA
14	Chris Bassitt	TOR	@ TB
15	Jose Berrios	TOR	@NYY
16	Aaron Civale	TB	LAA
17	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	BOS, SEA
18	Tanner Bibee	CLE	BAL
19	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	BOS, SEA	Rangers leaning on him to turn around with Scherzer out
20	Kyle Bradish	BAL	@HOU	Good rehearsal for playoff ball
21	Lucas Giolito	CLE	@ KC
22	Michael King	NYY	TOR
23	Reid Detmers	LAA	@ TB
24	JP Sears	OAK	SEA, DET
25	Hyun Jin Ryu	TOR	@ TB
26	Bryan Woo	SEA	@OAK, @TEX
27	Chris Sale	BOS	CWS
28	Griffin Canning	LAA	@ TB
29	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	@NYY, @ TB
30	Zack Littell	TB	TOR
31	Reese Olson	DET	@LAD
32	Brayan Bello	BOS	@TEX
33	J.P. France	HOU	KC
34	Bailey Ober	MIN	@CIN
35	Mike Clevinger	CWS	@WAS, @BOS
36	Kenta Maeda	MIN	@CIN
37	Logan Gilbert	SEA	@TEX
38	Nick Pivetta	BOS	CWS
39	Kutter Crawford	BOS	@TEX, CWS
40	Logan Allen	CLE	@ KC
41	Cal Quantrill	CLE	@ KC, BAL
42	Sawyer Gipson-Long	DET	@OAK
43	Tanner Houck	BOS	@TEX
44	Cole Ragans	KC	@HOU
45	Gavin Williams	CLE	BAL
46	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	@ TB
47	Chase Silseth	LAA	@MIN
48	Taj Bradley	TB	LAA, TOR
49	Shane Bieber	CLE	BAL
50	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	TOR, ARI
51	Cristian Javier	HOU	BAL
52	Carlos Rodon	NYY	ARI
53	Hunter Brown	HOU	BAL
54	Tyler Anderson	LAA	@MIN
55	Joe Boyle	OAK	DET
56	AL Reliever
57	John Means	BAL	@HOU, @CLE
58	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	@CLE
59	Bryce Miller	SEA	@TEX
60	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	DET
61	Dane Dunning	TEX	SEA
62	Alex Faedo	DET	@LAD
63	Dean Kremer	BAL	@CLE
64	Randy Vasquez	NYY	ARI
65	Kyle Gibson	BAL	@HOU
66	Dylan Cease	CWS	@BOS
67	Brady Singer	KC	CLE, @HOU
68	Jon Gray	TEX	BOS
69	Joey Wentz	DET	@OAK
70	Zack Greinke	KC	CLE
71	Kenny Rosenberg	LAA	@MIN
72	Alec Marsh	KC	CLE
73	Jack Flaherty	BAL	@CLE
74	Jordan Lyles	KC	@HOU
75	Jose Urena	CWS	@WAS
76	Paul Blackburn	OAK	SEA
77	Luis Medina	OAK	DET
78	Jesse Scholtens	CWS	@WAS
79	Touki Toussaint	CWS	@BOS
80	Kyle Muller	OAK	SEA

National League

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comment
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	PHI, @WAS
2	Freddy Peralta	MIL	@STL, @MIA	2.55 ERA and .51 WHIP with 23 K and 1 BB over last 17.2 IP
3	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	@MIA
4	Zack Wheeler	PHI	@ATL, NYM	Risky rematch vs. Braves, but needs to make a statement for the playoffs
5	Blake Snell	SD	COL
6	Zac Gallen	ARI	SF
7	Corbin Burnes	MIL	@STL
8	Max Fried	ATL	@WAS	Missing time has him fresh down the stretch
9	Justin Steele	CHC	PIT
10	Kodai Senga	NYM	@MIA
11	Logan Webb	SF	@ARI
12	Bobby Miller	LAD	DET
13	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	NYM	Deserves better than a 2-4 record
14	Merrill Kelly	ARI	SF
15	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SF
16	Lance Lynn	LAD	DET, SF	Allowing homers is not a good thing
17	Charlie Morton	ATL	@WAS
18	Braxton Garrett	MIA	NYM
19	Ryan Pepiot	LAD	DET, SF	Outpitching peripherals, but good home matchups
20	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	MIL
21	Hunter Greene	CIN	MIN
22	Mitch Keller	PIT	@CHC
23	Seth Lugo	SD	COL
24	Jordan Wicks	CHC	COL
25	Andrew Abbott	CIN	PIT
26	Javier Assad	CHC	PIT, COL
27	Wade Miley	MIL	@STL
28	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	COL
29	Joey Lucchesi	NYM	@MIA
30	Ranger Suarez	PHI	NYM
31	Eury Perez	MIA	NYM
32	Michael Wacha	SD	COL, STL
33	Bryce Elder	ATL	PHI
34	Jose Quintana	NYM	@PHI
35	Jameson Taillon	CHC	PIT
36	Aaron Nola	PHI	@ATL
37	Taijuan Walker	PHI	NYM
38	Ben Lively	CIN	MIN, PIT
39	NL Reliever
40	Bailey Falter	PIT	@CHC
41	Kyle Wright	ATL	PHI, @WAS
42	Edward Cabrera	MIA	NYM, MIL
43	Johan Oviedo	PIT	@CIN
44	Adrian Houser	MIL	@STL, @MIA
45	Sean Manaea	SF	@LAD
46	Alex Cobb	SF	@ARI, @LAD
47	Chase Anderson	COL	@ SD
48	Jose Butto	NYM	@MIA, @PHI
49	Gavin Stone	LAD	SF
50	Connor Seabold	COL	@ SD
51	Brandon Williamson	CIN	PIT
52	Keaton Winn	SF	@LAD
53	Michael Lorenzen	PHI	@ATL
54	Miles Mikolas	STL	MIL
55	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	@NYY
56	Josiah Gray	WAS	CWS
57	Dakota Hudson	STL	@ SD
58	Johnny Cueto	MIA	MIL
59	Ryan Feltner	COL	@CHC
60	Ty Blach	COL	@ SD, @CHC
61	Ross Stripling	SF	@LAD
62	Drew Rom	STL	MIL, @ SD
63	Ryne Nelson	ARI	@NYY
64	Connor Phillips	CIN	MIN
65	Luis Ortiz	PIT	@CIN
66	David Peterson	NYM	@PHI
67	Zach Davies	ARI	@NYY
68	Matt Waldron	SD	STL
69	Andre Jackson	PIT	@CIN
70	Chris Flexen	COL	@CHC
71	Pedro Avila	SD	STL
72	Zack Thompson	STL	MIL
73	Jake Irvin	WAS	ATL
74	Quinn Priester	PIT	@CHC
75	Joan Adon	WAS	CWS, ATL
76	Jackson Rutledge	WAS	CWS
77	Adam Wainwright	STL	MIL, @ SD	Rooting for No. 200
78	Tylor Megill	NYM	@PHI
79	Patrick Corbin	WAS	ATL
80	Trevor Williams	WAS	ATL