This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
ALDS Betting Picks for Yankees vs Royals
Ahhhh, playoff baseball! It's no secret that I believe (correctly) that College Baseball is best the sport on the planet right now, largely because of how electric the postseason format is. But the MLB's is definitely right up there. We're locked in on the ALDS/NLDS for the next few days as things start to heat up. For Monday though, it's an AL-only slate, so I'm rolling with a little something out of the Bronx.
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Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees Odds
- Royals +126/Yankees -155
- Over/Under: 7.5
I did have an opportunity to go to this game. As I'm writing this play up, there's still time for me to go, but then you think about getting there and paying a ton of money for a game that's better watching in the comfort of your own living room. Anyway, the first contest went the way of the Yankees in thrilling fashion. There was a game-swinging call in favor of the team with a payroll north of $300 million. Monday's game two sets up as a de facto series decider.
The KC Royals were a team I thought back in the preseason would be a year or two away from making a deep playoff run. I'm surprised at how ahead of schedule they are, but then again I'm not. In a relatively weak AL, KC capitalized on down years from Texas, Seattle, Toronto etc. The roster isn't that good, but it's been carried by certified dog, Bobby Witt Jr. and a pitching staff that well overperformed. The guy that was expected to perform at a high level - and did - is their ace, "Swole" Cole Ragans.
The former Texas Ranger grabbed a lot of attention in 2023 when he was traded to the Royals in mid-July when he racked up 86 K's in 66.2 innings with electric stuff. With a lot of preseason Cy Young hype for '24 (myself included), Ragans didn't quite live up to that billing, but he certainly displayed the kind of pitcher he is. His 3.14 ERA (12th) and 223 K's (5th) helped him notch a staggering 21 quality starts (6th) out of 32 tries. Since the final playoff push in September started, the Cole train has saved his best for last, allowing only three earned runs over his last five outings - including postseason - across 31 innings.
After six shutty at Baltimore in the Wild Card round last week, Ragans is ready for another tough road challenge in the Bronx Bombers. I'm not a huge trend or stat carrier in the playoffs, but it's notable to see how much better he's been on the road (2.87 ERA/.198 OBA) than at home (3.40 ERA/.227 OBA) this year. The 15 homers allowed isn't bad, but it is a tad high. Against a lineup that features the sure-fire MVP in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto who have combined for over 90 round trippers this season, keeping the ball in the yard will be paramount. The bigger edge for the KC ace is the Yanks have been hitting lefties about 20 points lower in average and over 50 points lower in OPS this season.
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On the side of NYY, it's going to be Carlos "C Money" Rodon on the hill. When they acquired Rodon from San Fran last year, this type of situation is exactly why. Rodon has been through a very interesting trajectory in his career. His first six seasons with the White Sox were brutal, either because of injury or poor performance. But then in '21 he had a wild breakout for a team with a lot of World Series hype at the time. Rodon's 2.37 ERA and 185 K's in 132.2 innings bought him a new start with the Giants for one year, where he continued to shove. After an injury plagued first season with New York, he's looked like his old self at times this season.
September has brought back the old flashes of C-Money, pitching to a 2.20 ERA and 34 K/10 BB ratio in 28.2 innings. This will be just his third postseason appearance, and second start of his career (first since '21). His last start, he got rocked by Houston and lasted just 2.2 innings giving up three hits and two runs. Perhaps the most head-turning stat of Rodon this season is the THIRTY-ONE homers (31) he's allowed, which is good for the second most in the MLB. Even against a Royals lineup that was just 20th in team homers, they're a frisky bunch that can capitalize on mistakes.
At the end of the day, stats over the course of the season get thrown out for the playoffs. Everything is magnified in these situations. The matchup on paper favors the Royals, but it's more about what happens if they lose. They would go home down 0-2 in the series and be forced to win three games in a row. If they want to have any chance of stealing this series, this is almost a must win, especially with your best pitcher on the bumpski. We're getting a nice plus money price, so let's roll KC.
Pick: Royals ML +126 FanDuel
