Painter established himself as an elite pitching prospect when he climbed from Single-A to Double-A in 2022 -- his age-19 season. An arm injury that eventually resulted in July 2023 Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2023 and 2024 seasons. He returned in 2025 with a rehab assignment at Single-A and a late-April assignment to Triple-A. While he was drafted in many redraft formats last year, Painter never earned a promotion from Triple-A, logging a 5.26 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and a 13.7 K-BB% in 106.2 innings across 26 starts. He had never logged a K-BB% below 29 percent prior to last season, and his 24.4 K-BB% during his rehab assignment at Single-A was a far cry from the 35.6 K-BB% he registered there in 2022. There's not much cause for optimism in 2026 if we only go off Painter's 2025 showing, but there's a chance that things will be different in his second full season back from TJS. He doesn't turn 23 until April and finished the year healthy without a dramatic drop in pure stuff, although there was a notable dip in his precision. The Phillies will give him every opportunity to make good on his potential, so those who like buying low on high-upside talents may find Painter's price in 2026 appealing. Read Past Outlooks