Alex Kirilloff

After two seasons limited by wrist injuries, Kirilloff finally put together a productive season in the majors that could cement him as the starting first basement - if he can stay healthy. Kirilloff's season started slow as he didn't reach the majors until May as he worked his way back from August 2022 wrist surgery. He hit .270 with 11 home runs and a .793 OPS despite missing five weeks with a right shoulder strain. He aggravated the injury in the playoffs and had offseason surgery to repair the labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder. He's expected to be ready for the start of spring training. Kiriloff showed decent power as both his .173 ISO and above-average Sweet Spot % (40.2%) were encouraging despite worries the wrist issues may have permanently sapped his power. He had limited exposure to left-handed pitching (56 PA) as he may limited to platoon duty until he gets more experience. He'll also need to improve his fielding as he's not a strong glove in the outfield and struggled at first base (a key error in the playoffs). He's shown enough promise in the minors and has a high enough pedigree (2016 first-round draft pick) that he could take a big leap if healthy.

The 2016 first-round draft pick and top prospect has shown flashes of being a productive regular with the bat, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy amid continued wrist issues. His 2022 season ended in July due to a ligament tear in his right wrist that required season-ending surgery. He had soreness in the same wrist in spring training and it required a cortisone shot. When he returned from the injured list, he hit just .172 with a walk and 12 strikeouts over 10 games and was sent to the minors. He then hit .379 with eight homers and a 1.158 OPS in 24 games at Triple-A. Back in the majors in June, he hit .270 with a .715 OPS over 34 games before another setback with his wrist. He decided to have undergo season-ending ulnar shortening surgery, which he hopes will provide a more permanent fit. Amid all the wrist issues, Kiriloff struggled to hit for the sort of power in the majors that many projected during his prospect days, as he owns a .398 slugging percentage over 387 career big-league plate appearances. He also took a step back with just a 3.2 BB% and .282 xwOBA, but it may be hard to read too much into his numbers given his health. Kirilloff is not a speed threat, nor a strong defender at first base or the outfield corners, so he may be have trouble staying in the lineup if his wrist issues continue to suppress his power. If healthy, his minor league pedigree and 2021 underlying numbers (12.8 Barrel%, 43.9 HardHit%) suggest he can be an impact hitter.

The price on Kirilloff (180 ADP in December) just seems a little off. He was a premium offensive prospect who logged expected stats (.291 xBA, .365 xwOBA, .541 xSLG) in line with his pedigree while showing an innate ability to hit for power to all fields. Kirilloff is not a speed threat, nor a strong defender at first base or the outfield corners, but he is the best left-handed masher on the roster, so he should get all the playing time he can handle. The hottest stretch of Kirilloff's season was a seven-game run with nine hits and four home runs before he suffered a right wrist sprain in early-May. He returned two weeks later and hit .260 with depleted power (.387 SLG) before suffering a ligament tear in that same wrist in late-July that ended his season. Even while playing at less than 100 percent, Kirilloff held his own for a 23-year-old in his first pro season, and the underlying numbers (12.8 Barrel%, 43.9 HardHit%) suggest his results should have been better. Kirilloff could reach another level if he can cut into his 48.8% groundball rate. He should see time in the outfield, at first base and at designated hitter.

The first player ever to record his first MLB hit in the postseason, Kirilloff was bypassed for a promotion all summer before getting his first start in the Twins' final playoff game. We knew he was big-league ready, but that decision cemented the fact that he is an immediate part of the team's future. He reportedly hit close to .500 with plenty of homers and doubles to all fields in informal games at the alternate training site. While Kirilloff doesn't profile as a great defender, the Twins can play him in the outfield corners, first base or DH, so there are many avenues to playing time early in 2021. He struggled against LHP in 2019 (.634 OPS), but logged a .942 OPS against them in 2018 and has a high enough offensive ceiling that a strict platoon seems unlikely. Kirilloff has never logged a K% over 18.5%, and his plus power seems to be trending up, so he could be a four-category stud in short order.

Kirilloff missed all of April and half of June with a right wrist injury that likely affected his performance for much of the season. He posted full-season lows in every notable offensive rate stat, but seemed to return to form later in the year. Including the Southern League playoffs, Kirilloff hit .309/.352/.480 with 11 home runs and a 15.9 K% over his final 60 games. He probably isn't quite the hitter we saw at Low-A (176 wRC+) and High-A (168 wRC+) in 2018, but when healthy, Kirilloff still looks like a future plus hitter with plus power. He was 7-for-13 on stolen-base attempts and may not run at all in the majors. While his arm is good enough for right field, his lack of agility and the makeup of the big-league roster suggests he could break in at first base, where he played 35 games last year. Kirilloff should report to Triple-A and could debut this summer.

Tommy John surgery erased Kirilloff's 2017, but he rewarded dynasty-league managers who stayed the course. Among Midwest League hitters with 250 PA, Kirilloff ranked first in AVG (.333), ISO (.274) and wRC+ (176). In late June, the Twins promoted him to the Florida State League, where he led hitters with 250 PA with a .362 AVG -- his 168 wRC+ ranked third in that subset. Kirlloff rarely strikes out (15.3 K%), hits the ball to all fields (Pull% below 43% at Low-A and High-A) and did not show pronounced splits (.980 OPS against RHP, .942 OPS against LHP). He does not sell out to get to his plus power. Kirilloff is a complete hitter with no obvious flaws who has not yet been taught that baseball is supposed to be hard. Given his success in the lower levels, we should not project significant struggles at Double-A or Triple-A. Calls for a big-league promotion in the second half of 2019 will likely fall on deaf ears, setting the stage for an early 2020 MLB debut.

Kirlloff, the 15th overall pick in the 2016 draft, missed the 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. The lost year of developmental time hurts, but he should be assigned to Low-A for his age-20 season, so he’s not too far behind his contemporaries. His skill set could be more valuable in fantasy than reality, as he is destined for an outfield corner, but could hit enough to profile in the middle of a big-league lineup. Kirilloff has a smooth swing that generates plus raw power combined with an advanced, patient approach at the plate. He should have no trouble doing damage against righties, and while he only hit .275/.322/.375 with two home runs in 80 at-bats against same-handed pitching in the Appalachian League in 2016, it’s too early to say he is destined for the strong side of a platoon. He still has some room to grow at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, and may need some time to find his swing again after a year off.

Kirilloff, the 15th overall pick in the 2016 draft, had a strong professional debut, albeit in a limited sample size. He hit .306 with seven home runs and a .794 OPS in 55 games for Elizabethton of the rookie Appalachian League. The winner of the Perfect Game All-American Home Run Derby, Kirilloff is a converted pitcher and first baseman with the speed, athleticism and range to stick in an outfield corner. He has a smooth swing combined with an advanced, patient approach at the dish. His left-handed stroke is simple yet effective in terms of launching balls into the outfield seats. Kirilloff still has some room to grow at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds. It remains to be seen if he can be a true 30-homer threat once he matures, but he can certainly spray the ball to all fields. After the top five hitters from last year's draft class (Nick Senzel, Corey Ray, Kyle Lewis, Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford), a case could be made for Kirilloff heading that next tier. He should be rostered in all dynasty leagues where 100-plus prospects are owned.