Brandon Belt

Belt suddenly started hitting for more power in 2020 and maintained that boost in 2021, though his injury problems returned. Last year, the injuries persisted while the power boost faded away, leading to the weakest season of his 12-year career. His .213/.326/.350 line was good for a career-worst 96 wRC+, and he only appeared in 78 games between three separate trips to the injured list, once with COVID-19 and twice due to knee injuries. Chronic inflammation in his right knee eventually led to surgery in early September. Those knee troubles likely deserve much of the blame for the fact that his OPS dropped by 299 points, making him an interesting late lottery ticket for those betting on an optimistic outcome from his surgery. Given his extensive injury history and the fact that he's heading into his age-35 season, however, pessimism might be the wiser approach. Belt joined the Blue Jays on a one-year, $9.3 million deal for 2023, and he's poised to serve as the team's primary designated hitter, which could help him stay healthy.

Belt has always been a flyball hitter, but last season he took it to a new level, hitting them half the time. He also sported a career high average exit velocity on flyballs, yielding a personal best 27% HR/FB mark. On the other hand, he posted his highest strikeout rate since 2014. Belt crushed righthanders with a 1.008 OPS. Even though he handled southpaws reasonably well with a .832 OPS, Belt was subjected to Gabe Kapler's platoon style, often sitting against lefthanders. The veteran's season was cut short a week with a fractured thumb, though he's expected to be healthy this season. Belt accepted the Giants qualifying offer, so he'll return to San Francisco, likely in a similar platoon capacity, though with a designated spot, Belt could pick up a few more pate appearances. Even so, he'll have a hard time matching last season's power surge, though he could combat regression with fewer strikeouts.

We normally do not get breakout seasons from 32-year-old players, but that is exactly what we got from Belt in 2020. His overall upside had long been capped by his splits against left-handed pitching and his home ballpark. San Francisco made some adjustments to the park and did some wind studies, and Belt must have gotten an early advance of the notes because he thrived at home to the tune of a .384/.511/.726 slash line. He had not posted an OPS over .900 at home since the 2012 season. Hitting lefties is still something he struggles with (.115 in 2020), so he has to make the most of his chances against righties as he did with a .350/.456/.659 line last season. Bake in some regression and beware Belt may not be ready for Opening Day after undergoing surgery to remove a bone spur from his heel last October. If healthy, Belt should be a fine Plan C at first base in 2021 heading into free agency.

What if Belt had played anywhere but Oracle Park (formerly AT&T Park)? We might look at him in a completely different light. Alas, the fact is Belt has been limited by his home park, and as he's pushed into his 30s, he's become the face of the waiver wire; a player freely available in most mixed leagues who occupies a spot on nine different rosters throughout the course of the year. Belt moved his K% and BB% both in the right direction last season -- close to three percentage points each way -- but his BA dipped regardless as his average exit velocity ranked in the bottom 15th percentile. For his career, Belt has 47 home runs at home compared to 82 on the road. Even in San Francisco, he's not that far behind the Joey Votto/Eric Hosmer tier of 1B fillers, and he could leap those names with a trade. For now, Belt should be left for a final bench spot or the free-agent pool.

After a concussion cost Belt the final two months of the 2017 season, he missed most of the second half of 2018 with a knee injury which ultimately required surgery. Belt also missed a chunk of time following an appendectomy and fell short of 115 games for the second straight season. When on the field, Belt was once again an above-average offensive contributor, though he did most of his damage against right-handed pitching, slashing just .221/.312/.316 against lefties. Throughout much of his career, AT&T Park has dampened Belt's production -- he's topped out at 18 home runs in a season -- but he actually had better numbers all around at home in 2018. The batting eye and physical ability seem to be mostly still intact as Belt nears his 31st birthday, but the rigors of a full major-league season have proven to be too much for his body.

Belt missed most of the final two months of the season with a concussion -- the fourth of his career -- curtailing what was likely going to be his first 20-homer season as a big-league player. The gains Belt made with his plate discipline in 2016 continued, as he kept his strikeout rate under 25 percent while walking nearly 15 percent of the time. Surprisingly, his batting average tumbled, but that may have been the result of a combination of bad luck, and a slight drop in the number of balls he hit to the opposite field. The good news on the health front is that Belt was fully cleared for offseason workouts soon after the conclusion of the regular season. There is 25-homer power in his bat, but the concerns are two fold: health leads the way, but the quality of the offense around him is another area of intrigue as the Giants attempt to reshape their roster after finishing 14th out of 15 National League teams in runs scored last season.

Belt took another step forward as a professional hitter in 2016, but it was tough to notice from a fantasy perspective. The noticeable improvement was in his plate discipline, finishing with a .394 on-base percentage, good enough for fourth among all first basemen. Unless his owners participated in leagues that count on-base percentage, then they were likely left wanting more from Belt. He'll never be the power threat many thought he would be when he broke into the league, but he will get on-base at an elite clip and provide mid-level counting stats. The only potential for improvement would be if manager Bruce Bochy elects to move him to second in the batting order (something he experimented with for seven games last season), or if he begins to steal bases again. The former would create more potential for runs if he can get on in front of Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford.

Belt turned in one of his best seasons from an offensive standpoint in 2015, though he went through a series of hot and cold streaks throughout the season, providing immense fantasy value when hot, but close to nothing during his dry spells. One can really see his polarizing value when looking at his monthly splits from 2015. In the months of April, June, and September, Belt batted .242 with just three home runs; in the months of May, July, and August, he batted .320 with 15 homers. So while his overall numbers suggest a steady, multi-category contributor (i.e. Eric Hosmer), Belt was more of a feast-or-famine asset. Looking towards 2016, Belt should continue to see the majority of the starts at first base, and the occasional start in left when Buster Posey needs a day off. In roto leagues, Belt is a mid-level first baseman to target, but for those in head-to-head leagues, it would be best to let another team draft him and deal with the ups and downs

Last year was the second consecutive season in which Belt hit at least 10 homers. That’s about the only positive that can be taken from a season in which he first missed eight weeks with a thumb injury and then had to deal with concussion symptoms in the second half. Belt had a weird season statistically in that 10 of his 12 homers came against righties, but his batting average was 30 points better against lefties. Historically, he does not have splits in terms of batting average, but 33 of his 45 career home runs have come against righties. It feels like Belt is on the verge of a career breakout as he has flashed the skills necessary to be a productive player, but injuries in 2014 derailed that progress. Perhaps that will hold down his draft value so savvy owners can pounce on a player who has .280/25/100 potential.

It was a tale of two seasons for Belt in 2013, as he got off to a slow start, while being hampered by an illness and a minor neck injury. He really turned things around after the All-Star break, though, putting together an impressive .326/.390/.525 line in 247 second-half plate appearances. Just when we thought we had Belt figured out –- a patient hitter with light power and light speed -- he showed a spike in power, with a .193 ISO this past season compared to .146 in 2012. The improvement in the power department may not be a fluke, as his HR/FB ratio in 2013 was a maintainable 10.6 percent and was actually lower than the 15.8 percent he posted when he burst onto the scene in 2011. Because of the disparity between his first and second halves, Belt will likely be a polarizing asset come draft day, but there is upside here, if he continues to build on the expanded power output that he displayed last season.

Belt improved in his second season with the Giants posting a stronger wOBA of .339 and a 116 wRC+, however his HR/FB ratio dropped from 15.8 to 6.2 percent. Additionally, his ISO dropped from .187 to .146 as his flyball rate dropped from 43.8 to 36.6 percent. The drop in flyballs was a result in his increased line drive rate (25.6 percent), which helped propel him to a .351 BABIP. Belt will finally have first base all to himself heading into 2013, but his average is likely to drop considering his swinging-strike rate (12.8 percent). It is unlikely he will keep his strikeout rate at 22.5 percent if he continues to whiff that often, leaving plenty of risk here in the batting average department barring improvement.

A slow start with the Giants last season resulted in a trip back to the minors for Belt, who once again tore up the inferior competition, posting a .320/.461/.528 line with a 47:48 BB:K ratio. After he was finally recalled, he suffered a wrist injury and was jerked around in the lineup, rarely seeing regular playing time. Belt is clearly the Giants' best prospect and would likely be the team's third-best hitter if they left him alone and gave him a full-time job in 2012, but unfortunately, that's still no guarantee. He'll enter spring training likely battling Nate Schierholtz for the right-field job, though first base (his natural position) could just as easily once again become an option if Aubrey Huff doesn't bounce back. Belt is a fantasy sleeper since the hype has mostly worn off by now.

Taken in the fifth round of the 2009 draft, Belt has quickly developed into one of the better prospects in baseball and certainly the best in the Giants organization. He hit .352/.455/.620 with a 93:99 BB:K ratio throughout the minors last season, including holding his own at Triple-A (.956 OPS) at age 22. The left-hander has more gap power than 40-homer potential, but that will play just fine at AT&T Park. While he may spend the first couple of months of 2010 in Triple-A getting more seasoning, Belt is fully expected to be given a chance to win an everyday job with San Francisco in spring training. He's the future at first base for the Giants and is a sleeper in fantasy leagues.