Carlos Correa

30-Year-Old ShortstopSS

Minnesota Twins

2024 Stats

AVG

.310

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Correa's second season with the Twins was a disappointment as he hit just .230 with a .711 OPS. He played most of the season with plantar fasciitis in his left foot which may have limited him at the plate. It hurt his speed and was a factor in his leading the league in grounding into double plays (30). His main struggles were against fastballs, where he was below average (-5 Run Value per Baseball Savant) for the first time in his career, so his decline may not have all been due to health. However, his power metrics were still above average (71st percentile in Avg. Exit Velocity and 75th in Hard-Hit Rate). Correa was still a plus defender despite the foot issues in part due to his riffle arm as he was a finalist for the AL Gold Glove. He also thrived in the postseason again, hitting .409 with three doubles in six games. His return to postseason form happened after his only IL stint for his foot issues, giving hope that the rest caused him to be renewed at the plate and a similar pattern can happen for 2024. He's set at the Twins shortstop for the foreseeable future thanks to a six-year, $200 million contract. While there are long-term concerns about his ankle (a plate inserted in his ankle from a 2014 injury scared of teams signing him last winter), a return to health could lead to a bounceback season. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#268

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'4"

Weight 215

DOB 9/22/1994

Born Ponce, Puerto Rico

College None

Drafted 1st Rd 2012 HOU

Making progress in recovery

SSMinnesota Twins

November 9, 2024

Correa's recovery from plantar fasciitis in his right foot is progressing ahead of his recovery from the same problem in his left foot last offseason, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told The Athletic. "He's tracking in a positive direction. He's got good plans for how he's going to handle it therapeutically and I think he's in a good place," said Falvey.

ANALYSIS
Correa was sidelined with plantar fasciitis in his right foot from just before the All-Star break until Sept. 14. He was able to play 11 games in September in which he showed little rust despite no minor-league rehab games, hitting .325 with a .960 OPS. He was clearly not moving at full speed, but the rest and rehab in the offseason should have him ready for spring training. After he struggled with plantar fasciitis in his left foot during the 2023 season that limited him at at the plate, the health of his feet will be something to watch in spring training.

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Batting Stats

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2022

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+15%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+10%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+13%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+19%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.893	384	54	16	47	0	.284	.378	.515
Since 2022vs Right	.775	1152	131	38	136	0	.269	.342	.433
2024vs Left	.971	88	16	5	15	0	.312	.386	.584
2024vs Right	.884	278	39	9	39	0	.310	.388	.496
2023vs Left	.781	136	15	5	14	0	.248	.346	.436
2023vs Right	.690	444	45	13	51	0	.224	.302	.388
2022vs Left	.945	160	23	6	18	0	.299	.400	.545
2022vs Right	.794	430	47	16	46	0	.289	.353	.441
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+3%

OPS at Home

2024

+14%

OPS at Home

2023

+17%

OPS on Road

2022

+12%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.817	735	85	25	85	0	.279	.351	.466
Since 2022Away	.792	801	100	29	98	0	.266	.351	.441
2024Home	.965	176	27	8	26	0	.333	.386	.579
2024Away	.846	190	28	6	28	0	.288	.389	.456
2023Home	.652	271	24	6	28	0	.212	.295	.357
2023Away	.763	309	36	12	37	0	.245	.327	.436
2022Home	.880	288	34	11	31	0	.310	.382	.498
2022Away	.789	302	36	11	33	0	.273	.351	.438
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Stat Review

How does Carlos Correa compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.66

BB Rate

10.9%

K Rate

16.7%

BABIP

.343

ISO

.207

AVG

.310

OBP

.388

SLG

.517

OPS

.905

wOBA

.390

Exit Velocity

90.3 mph

Hard Hit Rate

32.8%

Barrels/PA

6.6%

Expected BA

.279

Expected SLG

.462

Sprint Speed

21.9 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

43.5%

Line Drive %

20.2%

Fly Ball %

36.3%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Carlos Correa See More

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40 days ago

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47 days ago

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47 days ago

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48 days ago

Jason Collette reviews the hits and misses from his hitting half of his preseason bold predictions, including big hits on Brenton Doyle and Mark Vientos.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Correa returns to Minnesota after a wild offseason that saw him agree to $300+ million, 10+ year contracts with the Giants and then Mets only to be negated by concerns over the long-term health of his right ankle during a physical. Correa suffered the injury in the minors in 2014 and had a plate inserted in his ankle. Fantasy managers have given up any hope for steals out of Correa (where the risk to his leg may be a factor), but he is a solid four-category player as long as he remains on the field. A bruised finger kept him on the IL for a spell last season, but he closed the campaign on a high note, finishing with an .853 OPS that was nearly identical to his mark from his last season in Houston. And while the concerns over the long-term risk of his leg prevented him from getting a larger contract, it doesn't appear to be an issue in the short term. Correa's run and RBI totals took a big step back in both categories in 2022 despite enjoying relatively good health, but he could improve if the rest of Minnesota's lineup has better health after an injury-plagued season.

Correa rebounded from an off year in the 2020 truncated campaign, posting a 134 wRC+ along with playing the best defense of his career as his 20 defensive runs saved was tops among shortstops. At the plate, Correa set a personal low with an 18.1% strikeout rate and career best 11.7% walk rate. The improved plate skills helped balance the second lowest average fly ball exit velocity of his career. Correa still managed to set a career high with 26 homers, taking advantage of the pull-friendly nature of Minute Maid Park. Correa's last stolen base attempt was April 9, 2019, adding pressure to find steals elsewhere. After missing just two games in the pandemic season, Correa played in 148 last year, the most since 2016. He's still a health risk, but the draft injury tax has lessened. Without steals, Correa can't be included with the well-populated top tier shortstops, but he's entrenched in the next group.

"A tale of two seasons" is the cliche; the contrast between Correa's regular-season performance and his performance in the 2020 playoffs was so stark that it's only fitting to use. Correa was below league average by wRC+ during the regular season (97) and barely above replacement level in rotisserie baseball ($1.41 earned in 12-team leagues). However, he turned into a different player once the calendar flipped to October and ended up carrying the Astros to one win short of the World Series with a .362/.455/.766 slash line and six homers in the playoffs. Correa's batted-ball profile does little to excite, but he showed that there is still life in his bat. His lengthy injury history is the bigger concern than his regular-season struggles and that dark cloud and the plethora of capable options at the shortstop position should drive his acquisition cost down to lower than it's ever been since he broke into MLB.

On May 22, Correa was slashing .295/.360/.547, well on the way to showing the previous season's performance and injury struggles were behind him. Then, he reported feeling soreness in his ribs, supposedly from an in-home massage gone wrong. Correa was diagnosed with a cracked rib and spent just over eight weeks on the IL. Over the next month or so, Correa posted a .237/.354/.575 line before succumbing to back soreness. He played three games in September before being shut down until the playoffs. While his early-season performance was encouraging and his rib injury was a fluke, the recurrence of back woes is a huge buzzkill. Under the hood, Correa's indicators resembled those from before 2018. He didn't miss a playoff game, though he batted a disappointing .191/.257/.382 in the postseason. Correa remains an impact fantasy player when healthy, but until he shows he's devoid of back issues, he's a health risk.

For the second consecutive year, Correa's season was abbreviated due to injury. Unlike in 2017, his offensive numbers were not good as the problems with his back and oblique area lingered and affected his performance. A hitter is nothing without a healthy core, and Correa proved that in spades last year as he looked like a shadow of the guy we saw at the plate from 2015-17. The injury issue is present now, and tough to overlook given it has happened in back-to-back seasons, but what should be overlooked is last year’s struggles. Asking a hitter to perform at a high level without his core is like asking a sprinter to excel while running with plantar fasciitis. The down year presents a buying opportunity we have not yet had for Correa as expectations have been high since he came on the scene. Jump back in with both feet and hope he gets back over 600 plate appearances to maximize his earning potential.

Correa took another big step forward in his age-22 season, setting new career-highs in homers (24), batting average (.315), on-base percentage (.391) and slugging percentage (.550) while cutting his strikeout rate down to 19.1 percent. The counting stats could have been even better if he hadn't lost two months to a thumb injury suffered while he was sliding into home plate in early July. After returning in September, Correa hit just four homers in the final month of the season, but he swatted five in 18 postseason games while doing his part to help the Astros bring home a World Series title. After reaching double-digit stolen bases in each of his first two seasons with Houston, Correa had just two steals in 2017, which is a particularly surprising shift when you consider that he was 27-for-34 (79.4 percent) in his career prior to last season. With an excellent supporting cast returning around him in Houston, Correa could emerge as an MVP candidate with a completely healthy season in 2018.

Correa had a solid 2016 season that may get lost amid his heightened expectations and with so many other shortstops producing at the plate. Correa drew more walks last season, but also struck out a bit more and also did not get as much loft on his batted balls as he did in his rookie season. He also didn't run as frequently as expected, as he attempted just 17 steals. Correa needs to close the gaps in his splits to improve as he has hit for a better average and more power against righties than he has lefties. He could hit anywhere in the top four spots of the lineup in 2017, but hitting between Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve could be huge for his runs and RBI. At just 23, Correa still has time to become the top player at his position and fantasy superstar many envisioned when drafting him in the first round last year.

Correa, who entered 2015 fully healthy after suffering a fractured fibula the year prior, showed he had nothing left to prove in the minors, hitting .335/.407/.600 with 10 home runs, 44 RBI, and 18 stolen bases in 53 games between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Fresno. He made his big league debut in June as a 20-year-old and never looked back, replacing the injured Jed Lowrie as the Astros' starting shortstop. Correa surpassed his already lofty expectations by hitting .279/.345/.512 with 22 home runs, 68 RBI, and 14 steals in 99 games for Houston. The former No. 1 pick also broke several playoff records for his historic performance (4-for-4, two home runs, 11 total bases) in Game 4 of the ALDS. Fresh off a tremendous debut season, Correa is likely to be the first shortstop taken off the board in 2016 drafts and is justifiable as a first-round pick.

Correa was tremendous for High-A Lancaster, hitting .325/.416/.510 with six home runs, 57 RBI and 20 steals in just 62 games, before he fractured his fibula in late June, ending his season. Now several months removed from the injury, the 20-year-old shortstop is running, fielding grounders and taking part in other baseball-related activities, and should be fully recovered for the start of spring training. Despite the lost development time, Correa is still widely considered one of the top prospects in baseball. He's likely to spend most of the season, if not all of it, with Double-A Corpus Christi.

Correa, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2012 MLB draft, got off to a slow start in April (.221 batting average), but really turned up the heat after that to finish his first full season with an impressive .320/.405/.467 line despite missing time with a pair of hand injuries. He didn't hit for much power (nine home runs), but he tied for sixth in the Midwest League with 33 doubles and ranked fourth with 86 RBI. Those numbers, combined with uncertainty surrounding Correa's long-term defensive position between shortstop and third base, drew comparisons to the Orioles' Manny Machado. Regardless of what position he plays, the 19-year-old Correa has immense upside. For now, he will reside near the top, if not at the very top, of shortstop prospect rankings.

The surprise first overall pick of the 2012 draft struggled a bit in his first Gulf Coast League action, but turned it on when he was promoted to the Appalachian League in early August -- hitting .371/.450/.600 in limited at-bats. Correa looks like he will stick at shortstop, but at just 18, a lot will depend on how his body matures over the next three-to-four years. He will need to work on his endurance as he did not play every day in Puerto Rico. Correa will likely start the year on one of the Astros' short-season teams, but if things go well he should find his way to one of the team's full-season clubs when all is said and done.

More Fantasy News

Resting Sunday

SSMinnesota Twins

September 29, 2024

Correa is not in Sunday's lineup against the Orioles.