Casey Mize

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

Detroit Tigers

2025 Stats

W-L

6-1

ERA

2.45

WHIP

1.01

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Mize has yet to fully live up to his potential as the first pick of the 2018 draft, and injuries have played a big role in slowing him down. The righty missed all of the 2023 campaign due to Tommy John surgery and again spent a chunk of the season on the injured list in 2024. This time around it was a hamstring strain that cost Mize about two months and limited him to 102.1 innings overall. That's actually the second-highest mark of Mize's career, behind the 150.1 innings he logged back in 2021. The 27-year-old has shown flashes of being a strong MLB starter, though he's yet to maintain it over long stretches of time, and he has a middling 4.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for his career, along with an uninspiring 6.99 K/9. The Tigers undoubtedly want to see Mize take the next step forward as a staff anchor alongside ace lefty Tarik Skubal, so the former should once again have a rotation spot heading into 2025. However, at some point Mize needs to turn his upside into actual production, and he's hard to trust in fantasy until that happens. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Dynasty

From Preseason

#389

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 220

DOB 5/1/1997

Born Springville, AL

College Auburn

Drafted 1st Rd 2018 DET

Takes first no-decision of season

PDetroit Tigers

May 24, 2025

Mize allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits and a walk while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision versus the Guardians on Saturday.

ANALYSIS
Mize picked up where he left off after getting shelved with a mild left hamstring strain earlier in the month. Both runs on his line were scored in the third inning, with Bo Naylor tagging Mize for a solo shot and Jose Ramirez adding an RBI single. Mize was limited to 77 pitches (53 strikes) in this start, but considering his injury was not arm-related, this was likely more a product of game flow than anything to be concerned about. The 28-year-old has taken a big step forward this season, maintaining a 2.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 41:10 K:BB across 47.2 innings through eight starts, and he's earned a 6-1 record. Mize's next outing is projected to be at Kansas City.

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Pitching Stats

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2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

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Scoring

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2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Casey Mize generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Casey Mize generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-16%

BAA vs LHP

2025

-33%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-10%

BAA vs LHP

2023

No Stats

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2023vs Left	.244	318	72	21	71	10	4	8
Since 2023vs Right	.290	322	47	18	88	13	1	10
2025vs Left	.172	92	27	5	15	1	1	3
2025vs Right	.256	96	14	5	23	2	0	4
2024vs Left	.275	226	45	16	56	9	3	5
2024vs Right	.305	226	33	13	65	11	1	6
2023vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-19%

ERA at Home

2025

-54%

ERA at Home

2024

-11%

ERA at Home

2023

No Stats

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2023Home	3.47	1.23	80.1	3	3	0	7.4	1.8	1.0
Since 2023Away	4.26	1.42	69.2	5	4	0	6.8	3.0	1.2
2025Home	1.54	1.07	23.1	3	0	0	7.7	1.9	1.2
2025Away	3.33	0.95	24.1	3	1	0	7.8	1.8	1.5
2024Home	4.26	1.30	57.0	0	3	0	7.3	1.7	0.9
2024Away	4.76	1.68	45.1	2	3	0	6.4	3.6	1.0
2023Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Casey Mize compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

4.10

K/9

7.7

BB/9

1.9

HR/9

1.3

Fastball

94.6 mph

ERA

2.45

WHIP

1.01

BABIP

.249

GB/FB

1.17

Left On Base

89.0%

Exit Velocity

85.2 mph

Barrels/BBE

6.4%

Spin Rate

1967 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

27.3%

Swinging Strike

12.6%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Casey Mize Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Tigers Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

When healthy, Mize has looked like a solid MLB pitcher. However, an elbow injury cut his 2022 campaign short after only two starts, and then he missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. Back in 2021, Mize posted a 3.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 118 strikeouts across 150.1 innings in his first full season as starter for Detroit. The 26-year-old should have a rotation spot locked up heading into 2024, though the Tigers will undoubtedly limit his workload, and it's fair to expect some rust. Mize was drafted first overall back in 2018, so the talent is certainly there, and fantasy managers will be keeping a watchful eye on how he looks early in the season. However, the best bet for now is to temper expectations and probably not count on Mize for consistent production right away. He's still only made 39 starts at the MLB level, so even if he wasn't returning from a major surgery, the young righty would probably be a volatile option anyways.

After a promising 2021 campaign, Mize seemed primed for big things in 2022, but he only made two starts before getting shut down due to an elbow injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June and now seems likely to miss most if not all of 2023. It's a big blow for the Tigers, who drafted Mize first overall in 2018. His MLB debut season in 2020 wasn't great, as he posted 6.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 28.1 innings. However, given a longer look in 2021, Mize pitched much better. He tallied a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 150.1 innings, though his 7.06 K/9 and 4.71 FIP suggested he wasn't overly dominant. Still, it was a good campaign overall, and given Mize's prospect pedigree, it's fair to think that he has another level yet to reach. That will just have to wait until 2024 and beyond, so fantasy managers can ignore Mize in standard leagues, though he still has plenty of upside in keeper and dynasty formats.

After a disappointing 2020, albeit only 28.1 innings, Mize rebounded to exhibit why the Tigers used the first overall pick in 2018 to secure his services. OK, he wasn't dominant, but he teased his potential and he's embarking on just his age-25 season. Detroit did a good job managing Mize's workload, giving him extra rest down the stretch. After compiling 150.1 frames last season, the kid gloves should be off. Mize needs to miss more bats as a 19.3 K% won't get it done, at least not if he's going to be a front-of-the-rotation guy. He throws five pitches with only his four-season fastball and slider topping a 10% swinging strike rate, and just barely at that. Five pitches are a lot to work with, so it's too early to give up on more whiffs. Maybe Mize's future is a mid-rotation innings eater. The cost to find out is reasonable and there should be opportunities to stream in a weak division.

Mize's rookie season was a disaster from a results standpoint, but at least he is healthy and his stuff is intact. If he were in a different organization, say Cleveland, he would be advised to lean on his filthy trio of offspeed pitches while cutting his fourseamer and sinker usage from a combined 52 percent to around 40 percent. Whether Mize and the Tigers will go that route remains to be seen, but he currently has the pitches to have sustained success, he just needs to optimize his pitch usage. He also struggled to throw his fastball for strikes, which led to a 9.8 BB% -- almost double the 5.6 BB% he logged in 2019 at Double-A. Improving his fastball command would help greatly if Mize is to have a post-hype breakout in his second season. We should never expect pitching prospects to shove as rookies, yet recency bias still tends to seep in when one understandably pitches like a rookie.

During Mize's final year at Auburn, he had a 2.25 ERA in his first 84 innings and a 7.01 ERA in his final 30 innings. In his first full year in pro ball, he had a 0.92 ERA in his first 78 innings and a 6.61 ERA in his final 31.1 innings. The first overall pick in 2018 has a very deep arsenal -- he added another breaking ball last year -- and his plus command allows him to be very efficient with his pitches. However, we're waiting for the 22-year-old righty to take the final step in his development and show that he can handle a MLB starter's workload. He missed a month in the middle of the year with a shoulder strain and was ominously shut down 16 days prior to the end of Double-A Erie's season. We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation.

There was not much drama at 1-1 in 2018, as Mize had been rumored there for months and was indeed selected by Detroit, garnering a class-high $7.5 million bonus. A 6-foot-3 righty with a workhorse 220-pound frame, Mize has a deep, complex arsenal. He sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball, touching 96 in pro ball and 97 in college. His 88-mph splitter essentially works as his changeup, and is seen as his best pitch, grading anywhere from plus to double-plus, depending on when it was seen. He also throws a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider -- both of which will flash plus. Mize is known as a strike thrower with the potential for plus command, giving him true frontline upside. He battled arm issues in 2017 but stayed healthy in 2018 and was shut down at High-A in mid-August after reaching his innings limit. The Tigers will assign him to either High-A or Double-A. If he stays healthy he should be the first starting pitcher from his class to reach the majors.

More Fantasy News

Activated from IL

PDetroit Tigers

May 24, 2025

The Tigers reinstated Mize (hamstring) from the 15-day injured list ahead of his start against the Guardians on Saturday.

ANALYSIS
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Tracking toward Saturday return

PDetroit Tigers

Hamstring

May 19, 2025

Mize (hamstring) threw a five-inning simulated game Monday and is on track to return from the 15-day injured list to start Saturday against the Guardians, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.

ANALYSIS
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Dealing with hamstring strain

PDetroit Tigers

Hamstring

May 10, 2025

Mize was placed on the injured list Saturday due to a left hamstring strain, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Strikes out eight in win

PDetroit Tigers

May 8, 2025

Mize (6-1) allowed a run on three hits and struck out eight without walking a batter over six innings to earn the win in Game 1 of Thursday's doubleheader versus the Rockies.

ANALYSIS
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Comes away with fifth win

PDetroit Tigers

May 1, 2025

Mize (5-1) earned the win Thursday against the Angels after allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks in seven innings. He struck out four.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Candidate to be non-tendered

PDetroit Tigers

November 22, 2024

Mize could be non-tendered by the Tigers before Friday's roster deadline, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.

ANALYSIS
The right-hander is entering his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility and is estimated to make $2 million in 2025, per Spotrac.com. Detroit already declined Mize's $3.1 club option, and it's unclear if the potential salary difference will be enough for the organization to justify tendering him a contract. He made 22 appearances during the 2024 regular season and had a 4.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 78:29 K:BB over 102.1 innings.

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