Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Milwaukee Brewers
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Burnes followed up his NL Cy Young season in impressive fashion. While he didn't bring home the hardware in the National League again, the right-hander was right up there among the best pitchers in the game no matter how you slice it. At 27 years old, Burnes fanned 243 batters -- second in baseball behind only Gerrit Cole -- and surpassed 200 innings for the first time, adding 35 frames to his 2021 total. There is little to nitpick in the underlying numbers, though Burnes hit some bumps in the road in the second half, with his ERA finishing at 3.97 after the All-Star break. A corresponding dip in strikeout rate after the break (to 27.9%) perhaps gives reason for pause heading into 2023, but the overall body of work was stellar. Burnes should still be treated as one of MLB's elite aces, even if he won't get to pick on the NL Central quite as much with the balanced schedule. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#16
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $6.5 million contract with the Brewers in March of 2022.
Throws three scoreless innings
PMilwaukee Brewers
October 6, 2022
Burnes did not factor into the decision Wednesday and did not allow a baserunner with five strikeouts over three innings against Arizona.
ANALYSIS
Burnes finished 2022 without allowing a run in back-to-back outings; however, his final 13 starts were not up to his usual standard as he allowed at least four earned runs on five occasions. The right-hander followed up his 2021 NL Cy Young Award with a 2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 243:51 K:BB in 202 innings, with the strikeouts and innings totals representing career highs.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
99
Last 10 Games
95
Last 5 Games
90
How many pitches does Corbin Burnes generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Corbin Burnes generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-19%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-30%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .210 884 292 59 171 27 10 14
Since 2020vs Right .180 810 273 50 133 20 1 18
2022vs Left .203 407 124 28 76 11 6 10
2022vs Right .190 390 119 23 68 13 0 13
2021vs Left .220 342 120 17 71 12 2 3
2021vs Right .179 315 114 17 52 5 1 4
2020vs Left .200 135 48 14 24 4 2 1
2020vs Right .140 105 40 10 13 2 0 1
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-12%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-7%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-32%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-47%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 2.78 0.99 223.2 13 8 0 12.5 2.2 0.7
Since 2020Away 2.46 0.94 205.0 14 6 0 11.2 2.4 0.6
2022Home 3.04 0.92 109.2 7 4 0 11.9 1.8 1.1
2022Away 2.83 1.02 92.1 5 4 0 9.6 2.8 0.9
2021Home 2.85 1.08 88.1 4 4 0 12.6 2.3 0.3
2021Away 1.94 0.79 78.2 7 1 0 12.6 1.3 0.5
2020Home 1.40 0.97 25.2 2 0 0 14.7 3.2 0.4
2020Away 2.65 1.06 34.0 2 1 0 12.2 4.0 0.3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Corbin Burnes compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.76
 
K/9
10.8
 
BB/9
2.3
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
96.3 mph
 
ERA
2.94
 
WHIP
0.97
 
BABIP
.270
 
GB/FB
1.59
 
Left On Base
74.9%
 
Exit Velocity
81.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.8%
 
Spin Rate
2589 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.3%
 
Swinging Strike
14.9%
 
Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Once a top prospect, Burnes reached full bloom in 2021, going 11-5 with 234 strikeouts and only seven homers allowed in 167 innings for the Brewers en route to winning the NL Cy Young Award. His 30.4 K-BB% was best among qualified pitchers -- nearly seven strikeouts for every walk he issued. The breakout can be easily traced back to 2020 when Burnes added a cut fastball and changeup to his arsenal while dialing back his straight fastball and slider. That repertoire shakeup was in response to a big step backward on the field in 2019 when Burnes allowed 17 homers in just 49 innings at the big-league level. He spent some time on the IL early on in 2021 following a positive COVID test and later dealt with a minor knee problem, but this version of Burnes we've seen the past two seasons is elite and worthy of late-first/early-second round consideration in fantasy leagues.
It wasn't clear how Burnes would be utilized in 2020 after having a rough go of it the year before, but he and the Brewers found something that clicked, and Burnes wound up finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting after a dominant campaign. Burnes entirely revamped his pitch mix last season, adding a cut fastball and changeup to the mix and severely cutting his reliance on his fastball and slider. When it was all said and done, Burnes posted a 2.02 ERA, a mark that would have ranked fifth in the league had he recorded one more out to qualify. His K/9 rate would have also ranked an elite third among all starters. Burnes was a well-regarded prospect coming up in the Brewers' system, so he has the pedigree to match his results. He will essentially be a lock to open the season as the Brewers' No. 2 starter.
There were high hopes for Burnes heading into 2019 after the right-hander excelled in a relief role during his debut season in 2018. However, things did not go according to plan. He opened the season in Milwaukee's rotation but was sent to the minors after struggling to a 10.70 ERA and allowing 11 home runs through his first four starts (17.2 innings). Burnes spent the rest of the season bouncing between Triple-A and the big-league bullpen, missing time with a shoulder injury while struggling at both stops. Control was an issue for Burnes; he averaged 3.7 BB/9 and often caught too much of the plate when throwing strikes, as evidenced by his 12% barrel rate. Burnes finished the year with an 8.82 ERA in 49 innings, but underlying numbers suggest he was a bit unlucky (6.09 FIP, 3.38 xFIP). He registered a 21.3 K-BB%, which underscores his potential. Burnes should get another chance to start in 2020.
Burnes remains a starter long-term, but the Brewers let him get his feet wet at the major-league level as a reliever, and the move worked brilliantly, as Burnes got to complete his development and provide excellent innings during the team's playoff push. His stuff played up in relief, with Burnes posting a 15.2% swinging-strike rate and a 47.4 O-Contact%, nearly 20 percentage points lower than the league average. So when hitters swung at Burnes' pitches out of the strike zone, they very rarely even put bat to ball let alone connected for base hits. The Brewers want him to keep starting, and he will get a chance to compete for a rotation spot during spring training. If he does not earn a spot there, it's likely he will work out of the bullpen and be next on deck should a spot open up.
Burnes showed flashes of brilliance while throwing just 35.2 innings in his 2016 professional debut, but that turned out to be a sign of things to come, as he flat-out dominated minor-league hitters in 2017. He fell just short of averaging a strikeout per inning at both the High-A and Double-A levels, but was otherwise spectacular, limiting opposing hitters to just a .200 batting average while also posting a sparkling 4.20 K/BB and giving up just three home runs. He doesn't possess elite strikeout potential, but he will at least be serviceable in that area given his deep, high-quality arsenal, which includes a mid-90s fastball, a hard slider, and also a curveball and changeup. Burnes figures to get a run at the Triple-A level before he makes his big-league debut, but as long as he does not fall victim to the thin air of Colorado Springs, he stands a good chance to join the Brewers at some point in the summer of 2018.
Burnes was completely off the prospect radar his freshman year at St. Mary's, when he posted a 6.18 ERA as he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen. But over the next three years, Burnes developed into a major prospect, thanks in particular to a notable summer in the Cape Cod League following his junior season. Now he owns a fastball that sits 92-95 to go with a changeup and breaking ball, all capable of drawing whiffs. That was enough to earn Burnes a fourth-round selection from the Brewers. He looked fantastic in his first professional action, as he struck out 41 batters and allowed just eight runs over 35.2 innings between rookie ball and Low-A Wisconsin. At 21 years old, he should be able to handle batters at those levels, but his stock will be worth watching as he progresses up the ladder.
More Fantasy News
Strikes out seven in win
PMilwaukee Brewers
October 1, 2022
Burnes (12-8) earned the win against the Marlins on Friday, allowing no runs on four hits while striking out seven and walking none over eight innings.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out eight in win
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 24, 2022
Burnes (11-8) earned the win against the Reds on Saturday, allowing two runs on four hits over 6.1 innings. He struck out eight and walked three.
ANALYSIS
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Allows five runs in loss
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 20, 2022
Burnes (10-8) gave up five runs on seven hits and one walk over 5.2 innings to take the loss to the Mets on Monday. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Takes loss despite quality start
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 15, 2022
Burnes (10-7) took the loss against St. Louis on Wednesday, allowing three runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out five batters over seven innings.
ANALYSIS
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Rights ship with dominant win
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 8, 2022
Burnes (10-6) earned the win in Game 1 of Thursday's doubleheader against the Giants, allowing one run on three hits over eight innings. He struck out 14.
ANALYSIS
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