Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Baltimore Orioles
2024 Fantasy Outlook
The right-hander's 2023 got off to an inauspicious start, with an ugly arbitration battle publicly straining the relationship between Burnes and the Brewers. Always the consummate professional, Burnes put together another highly successful campaign despite some hiccups, leading qualified National League starters in WHIP while reaching 200 strikeouts for the third consecutive season. His swing-and-miss dominance took a hit as Burnes averaged just over a strikeout per inning (25.5 K%), coinciding with a dip in fastball velocity. His sinking fastball let him down and the 10 wins were a disappointment, but Burnes has four above-average pitches to lean on and still projects as a fantasy ace after being traded to the Orioles in February. If the strikeouts tick back up, Burnes could find himself in the Cy Young discussion once again. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#23
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $15.6 million contract with the Brewers in January of 2024. Traded to the Orioles in February of 2024.
Wins despite command issues
PBaltimore Orioles
July 19, 2024
Burnes (10-4) allowed a run on two hits and four walks over six innings Friday, striking out six and earning a win over the Rangers.
ANALYSIS
The lone blemish on Burnes' final line was a solo shot from Nathaniel Lowe in the second inning. It was the first time this year that he'd issued more than three walks in a start -- over his previous four outings, he had walked just one batter. Burnes has gone 7-2 with an impressive 2.10 ERA over his last 12 starts. The veteran righty lowered his ERA to 2.38 with a 116:29 K:BB through 124.2 frames. His next outing is currently expected to come in Miami.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
91
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
80
How many pitches does Corbin Burnes generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Corbin Burnes generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-26%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-26%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .186 1010 280 84 170 22 7 20
Since 2022vs Right .219 1067 279 62 216 35 1 39
2024vs Left .181 215 44 16 36 4 0 3
2024vs Right .243 281 72 13 65 10 1 11
2023vs Left .170 388 112 40 58 7 1 7
2023vs Right .229 396 88 26 83 12 0 15
2022vs Left .203 407 124 28 76 11 6 10
2022vs Right .190 390 119 23 68 13 0 13
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-11%
ERA on Road
2024
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-35%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-7%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 3.16 1.07 256.1 16 9 0 10.2 2.4 1.1
Since 2022Away 2.80 0.97 264.0 16 11 0 9.1 2.7 0.9
2024Home 2.03 1.16 66.2 5 2 0 8.9 1.9 0.8
2024Away 2.79 0.91 58.0 5 2 0 7.8 2.3 1.2
2023Home 4.28 1.21 80.0 4 3 0 9.0 3.5 1.4
2023Away 2.77 0.97 113.2 6 5 0 9.5 2.8 0.8
2022Home 3.04 0.92 109.2 7 4 0 11.9 1.8 1.1
2022Away 2.83 1.02 92.1 5 4 0 9.6 2.8 0.9
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Stat Review
How does Corbin Burnes compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.00
 
K/9
8.4
 
BB/9
2.1
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
96.8 mph
 
ERA
2.38
 
WHIP
1.04
 
BABIP
.270
 
GB/FB
1.68
 
Left On Base
83.3%
 
Exit Velocity
81.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.6%
 
Spin Rate
2709 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
20.5%
 
Swinging Strike
13.2%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Burnes followed up his NL Cy Young season in impressive fashion. While he didn't bring home the hardware in the National League again, the right-hander was right up there among the best pitchers in the game no matter how you slice it. At 27 years old, Burnes fanned 243 batters -- second in baseball behind only Gerrit Cole -- and surpassed 200 innings for the first time, adding 35 frames to his 2021 total. There is little to nitpick in the underlying numbers, though Burnes hit some bumps in the road in the second half, with his ERA finishing at 3.97 after the All-Star break. A corresponding dip in his strikeout rate after the break (to 27.9 percent) perhaps gives reason for pause heading into 2023, but the overall body of work was stellar. Burnes should still be treated as one of MLB's elite aces, even if he won't get to pick on the NL Central quite as much with the balanced schedule.
Once a top prospect, Burnes reached full bloom in 2021, going 11-5 with 234 strikeouts and only seven homers allowed in 167 innings for the Brewers en route to winning the NL Cy Young Award. His 30.4 K-BB% was best among qualified pitchers -- nearly seven strikeouts for every walk he issued. The breakout can be easily traced back to 2020 when Burnes added a cut fastball and changeup to his arsenal while dialing back his straight fastball and slider. That repertoire shakeup was in response to a big step backward on the field in 2019 when Burnes allowed 17 homers in just 49 innings at the big-league level. He spent some time on the IL early on in 2021 following a positive COVID test and later dealt with a minor knee problem, but this version of Burnes we've seen the past two seasons is elite and worthy of late-first/early-second round consideration in fantasy leagues.
It wasn't clear how Burnes would be utilized in 2020 after having a rough go of it the year before, but he and the Brewers found something that clicked, and Burnes wound up finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting after a dominant campaign. Burnes entirely revamped his pitch mix last season, adding a cut fastball and changeup to the mix and severely cutting his reliance on his fastball and slider. When it was all said and done, Burnes posted a 2.02 ERA, a mark that would have ranked fifth in the league had he recorded one more out to qualify. His K/9 rate would have also ranked an elite third among all starters. Burnes was a well-regarded prospect coming up in the Brewers' system, so he has the pedigree to match his results. He will essentially be a lock to open the season as the Brewers' No. 2 starter.
There were high hopes for Burnes heading into 2019 after the right-hander excelled in a relief role during his debut season in 2018. However, things did not go according to plan. He opened the season in Milwaukee's rotation but was sent to the minors after struggling to a 10.70 ERA and allowing 11 home runs through his first four starts (17.2 innings). Burnes spent the rest of the season bouncing between Triple-A and the big-league bullpen, missing time with a shoulder injury while struggling at both stops. Control was an issue for Burnes; he averaged 3.7 BB/9 and often caught too much of the plate when throwing strikes, as evidenced by his 12% barrel rate. Burnes finished the year with an 8.82 ERA in 49 innings, but underlying numbers suggest he was a bit unlucky (6.09 FIP, 3.38 xFIP). He registered a 21.3 K-BB%, which underscores his potential. Burnes should get another chance to start in 2020.
Burnes remains a starter long-term, but the Brewers let him get his feet wet at the major-league level as a reliever, and the move worked brilliantly, as Burnes got to complete his development and provide excellent innings during the team's playoff push. His stuff played up in relief, with Burnes posting a 15.2% swinging-strike rate and a 47.4 O-Contact%, nearly 20 percentage points lower than the league average. So when hitters swung at Burnes' pitches out of the strike zone, they very rarely even put bat to ball let alone connected for base hits. The Brewers want him to keep starting, and he will get a chance to compete for a rotation spot during spring training. If he does not earn a spot there, it's likely he will work out of the bullpen and be next on deck should a spot open up.
Burnes showed flashes of brilliance while throwing just 35.2 innings in his 2016 professional debut, but that turned out to be a sign of things to come, as he flat-out dominated minor-league hitters in 2017. He fell just short of averaging a strikeout per inning at both the High-A and Double-A levels, but was otherwise spectacular, limiting opposing hitters to just a .200 batting average while also posting a sparkling 4.20 K/BB and giving up just three home runs. He doesn't possess elite strikeout potential, but he will at least be serviceable in that area given his deep, high-quality arsenal, which includes a mid-90s fastball, a hard slider, and also a curveball and changeup. Burnes figures to get a run at the Triple-A level before he makes his big-league debut, but as long as he does not fall victim to the thin air of Colorado Springs, he stands a good chance to join the Brewers at some point in the summer of 2018.
Burnes was completely off the prospect radar his freshman year at St. Mary's, when he posted a 6.18 ERA as he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen. But over the next three years, Burnes developed into a major prospect, thanks in particular to a notable summer in the Cape Cod League following his junior season. Now he owns a fastball that sits 92-95 to go with a changeup and breaking ball, all capable of drawing whiffs. That was enough to earn Burnes a fourth-round selection from the Brewers. He looked fantastic in his first professional action, as he struck out 41 batters and allowed just eight runs over 35.2 innings between rookie ball and Low-A Wisconsin. At 21 years old, he should be able to handle batters at those levels, but his stock will be worth watching as he progresses up the ladder.
More Fantasy News
Falls to Cubs
PBaltimore Orioles
July 11, 2024
Burnes (9-4) took the loss Wednesday against the Cubs, allowing three runs on nine hits over six innings. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Goes six innings in no-decision
PBaltimore Orioles
July 4, 2024
Burnes allowed two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision versus the Mariners on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Returning to mound Thursday
PBaltimore Orioles
July 2, 2024
Burnes will start Thursday's series finale against the Mariners on the road, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Reinstated from paternity leave
PBaltimore Orioles
July 1, 2024
The Orioles activated Burnes (personal) from the paternity list Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Placed on paternity leave list
PBaltimore Orioles
Personal
June 28, 2024
The Orioles placed Burnes on the paternity leave list Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Likely to stay put?
PMilwaukee Brewers
December 11, 2023
The Brewers are expected to hang on to Burnes rather than trade him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
ANALYSIS
Burnes seems destined to depart via free agency after the season, which is why his name has often popped up in trade rumors. However, Milwaukee might be the favorite to win the National League Central if it keeps its ace, so it makes sense for the club to at least keep Burnes until the trade deadline and then re-evaluated its position. The right-hander is slated to earn roughly $15 million in 2024 in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
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