Dakota Hudson

Hudson's first full season back from Tommy John surgery started well enough, but it ended with him in the minor leagues. While he turned in a 2.76 ERA in his first 11 appearances of 2022 (58.2 innings), he had just a 34:25 K:BB in that span, hinting at imminent disaster. Sure enough, things fell apart for the right-hander. He was demoted to the bullpen and ultimately to Triple-A after posting a 5.48 ERA over the course of July and August. Groundballs via the sinker and slider are the name of the game for Hudson, who owns just a 16.3 K% in the majors. There is little to get excited about here from a stuff standpoint and he's not assured anything out of camp. Hudson has a few minor-league options remaining even at 28 years old, so the Cardinals may keep him stretched out with Memphis as starting depth to begin 2023.

Hudson's recovery from September 2020 Tommy John surgery limited him to just one late-season start in 2021, but the Cardinals will be counting on him to serve as a full-time member of the rotation during the upcoming campaign. His strikeout (18.1%) and walk (11.3%) rates aren't very impressive, but his 57.6% groundball rate is elite, and that works particularly well with the Cardinals' strong infield defense. He will probably hurt your WHIP, but he could also notch double-digit wins and will be particularly appealing when he faces the Pirates, Cubs and Reds.

Unfortunately, we won't see Hudson in 2021 as he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in September. He once again outperformed his estimators before going down, and to an even greater extent in 2020. He was even better in terms of run prevention than he was in 2019, shaving his ERA to just 2.77 across 39 innings. His strikeout and walk rates both improved in 2020, although they were still underwhelming at 20.5% and 9.9%, respectively. On account of those middling rates and a .192 BABIP, his deserved ERA is something closer to 4.50, but we have to remember that not all hurlers pitch to their estimators and Hudson deserves credit for keeping the ball on the ground and playable for the defense behind him. Hudson has in fact been one of the most prolific groundball starters in the game in recent years with a career GB rate of 57.3%. See you in 2022.

Hudson debuted in a relief role in 2018, but he entered the 2019 season as a starter after beating out John Gant in spring for the Cardinals' final rotation spot. He scuffled in his first start and temporarily moved to the bullpen, where he picked up a save in his lone appearance before rejoining the rotation. Over his subsequent 31 starts, Hudson went 16-6 while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. The right-hander doesn't strike out many batters -- his 7.0 K/9 was the ninth-worst mark among qualified starters -- relying instead on his sinker/cutter combo to help generate a league-best (among qualifiers) 56.9% groundball rate. While that contact-heavy approach worked for Hudson in 2019 with a strong defense behind him, indicators suggest he may not be quite as lucky in 2020 (4.93 FIP, 5.08 SIERA). Factor in an ugly 11.4 BB% and a good-but-not-great 1.1 HR/9 and there isn't a ton to get excited about.

Hudson, the 2018 Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year, was promoted in late July after posting a 2.63 ERA in 111 innings with Triple-A Memphis. Most impressive, especially for the PCL, was allowing just one homer. He carried that over to the majors, surrendering no long balls in 27.1 innings with St. Louis, all in relief. Hudson needs to keep the ball in the yard as his 96-mph sinker doesn't miss many bats (9.0% swinging-strike rate overall). Hudson appears to be one of several Redbirds battling for a rotation spot with the fallback of returning to the bullpen as a swingman. Considering he doesn't have an effective offspeed offering, he's better suited for relief work where his hard sinker can induce double plays when most needed. Hudson's ratios may play in simulation formats, but the lack of strikeouts is a huge detriment in standard fantasy play, regardless of his role.

Hudson has a huge arm and was a starter at Mississippi State, where he showed enough improvement with his command to warrant a slightly over-slot $2 million bonus from the Cardinals when he slid to them at No. 34 in the draft. He possesses a mid-90s fastball, wipeout slider and emerging curveball and changeup. He is at his best when inducing groundballs. Hudson pitched just 13.1 innings across stops at rookie ball and High-A Palm Beach following the draft due to a heavy workload in his last season in the SEC. On the plus side, Hudson allowed just one earned run and fanned 19 batters over that span. On the downside, he walked seven batters in 9.1 innings at High-A. Though the sample size is small, the numbers present a microcosm of Hudson's profile: Big arm, massive strikeout potential, questionable command. The 6-foot-5, 215-pound righty could be ready for Double-A early in 2017, and if he can show improved command, he could cruise through the upper levels, profiling as a future No. 3 starter in the big leagues.