This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A nine game main slate awaits Saturday evening at FanDuel, getting underway at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Colorado doesn't have a listed pitcher on the site, giving us 17 arms to work through, eight of whom are priced at $9,200 or greater, suggesting we'll need to allocate funds to pay up for an arm. That's reduced further with Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen ($8,000) priced relatively high for what looks to be a very limited pitch count/opener situation. Paying up is backed up by run lines, as predictably only Rockies - Braves has a double-digit run total, while nothing else sits above 8.5 runs. Mariners - Mets and Dodgers - Pirates are our low spots at 7.5.
We're looking dry across the slate with no risk of a postponement. Winds appear to be blowing in in Minnesota, and out in Chicago, potentially giving us one game to avoid and one to target.
Pitching
Justin Steele, CHC at CWS ($9,500): The "how low can you go" exercise with elite arms likely comes down to Steele vs. Sean Manaea ($9,400), and that choice likely becomes what type of game you're playing. Take a quick peak at Manaea's game logs, and he's had an incredible ceiling of late, and paired with Seattle's high strikeout rate, he's the GPP target. Steele, however, is the safer play against the White Sox, making him cash and GPP viable. The Cubs have the second-highest expected run total Saturday, so we'll want offensive shares, but it also highlights Steele's highly probable run support and win potential. Pair that with the White Sox' 24.2 percent K rate and 80 wRC+ against lefties, and Steele is in a spot to better a 4x return.
River Ryan, LAD vs. PIT ($8,000): Ryan looks like a reasonable path to combat the higher priced arms. He's allowed only three runs in his first three starts, though you can question his efficiency, as he didn't reach six innings in those outings. That could take away a potential quality start, but getting into the sixth would allow him a chance at a win and a decent strikeout total. Pittsburgh has just a 3.8 run total expectancy, and enters Saturday with a 24.3 percent K rate and a .291 wOBA and 85 wRC+ off righties. We're not asking him to match Paul Skenes pitch for pitch, but rather just keep the Pirates off the board until their offense strikes.
Gavin Williams, CLE at MIN ($7,800): I'm personally not messing with any option below Williams, so he is our pay-down option by default. The strikeouts are surging for Williams, collecting 25 over his last three starts in just 15.0 innings. That's resulted in high pitch counts and no quality starts unfortunately, but it shows he can have a high ceiling at a discounted price. His 4.91 ERA comes a ridiculous .359 BABIP and lower 3.78 xFIP. Minnesota is a decent offense statistically, with a 114 wRC+ and somewhat minimal 21.1 percent K rate off righties, so we're not going to get a clean outing. We just need the strikeouts to play up to reach a 4x return.
Top Targets
Dakota Hudson is unconfirmed as Colorado's starter, so we need that affirmation before setting lineups. But we also know we want shares of the Braves offense, even if they've been unreliable all season. Hudson is allowing a .525 wOBA and 1.258 OPS to lefties at home. Pair that with a 5-for-6, one homer line off of him, and Saturday sets up for a Matt Olson ($3,800) day.
The Royals have the third-highest run expectancy Saturday. While the price is super high, Bobby Witt ($4,600) brings a near can't-miss floor with an elite ceiling every time out. He is 0-for-4 off Cardinals' starter Andre Pallante however, but that's a trend I'd expect to change. For GPPs, I'd go right back to Elly De La Cruz ($4,300) after he went hitless Friday.
Bargain Bats
Assuming Hudson is the starter for the Rockies and you're not trusting Olson, Jarred Kelenic ($3,300) is the only other Brave lefty to consider. He's streaky, but had three hits Friday, giving him seven in his last eight games, and there's an outside chance he hits leadoff.
We noted interest in Cubs' bats when considering Steele, and there's ample reason above just their expected run total. White Sox starter Chris Flexen is allowing a .377 wOBA to lefties, a number that rises to .410 at home. Cody Bellinger ($3,100) is off a 3-for-4 night with a homer and is the easy target. But any of Ian Happ ($3,200), Michael Busch ($3,000), Mike Tauchman ($2,700) and even Pete Crow-Armstrong ($2,500) are in play. Simply check the Cubs batting order and grab a few pieces as the rest of your build dictates.
Baltimore is always a reasonable place to find some value, with only one bat priced above $3,200. Colton Cowser ($3,100) has homered in consecutive games and is hitting leadoff, and while likely still popular, Jackson Holliday ($2,800) isn't priced up thanks to a recent 0-for-8 stretch.
Stack to Consider
Brewers vs. Nick Martinez (Reds): Willy Adames ($3,500), William Contreras ($3,400), Jackson Chourio ($3,000)
The Brewers lineup is on fire, scoring 42 runs and collecting 59 hits in their last four games, so the entire team should be in play Saturday. We'll target the heart of the order for upside, but again, there are surging options throughout this squad. Adames has four homers and eight RBI in his last four, while Contreras has eight hits, a homer and seven RBI, giving this stack a high ceiling. Chourio has finally seen his price hit the $3,000 mark, so he's not the value he's been for the past week-plus. But he managed 12 fantasy points Friday without a hit and had 15 knocks in his previous seven games. If you need more value, Brice Turang ($2,900) hitting atop the order makes sense, while Joey Ortiz ($2,900) is seeing the ball well of late.
