Dylan Cease

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

San Diego Padres

2024 Stats

W-L

12-11

ERA

3.71

WHIP

1.09

205

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Cease finished second in voting for the AL Cy Young in 2022 after he posted a 2.20 ERA in 32 starts, but he stumbled to a 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 214:79 K:BB over 177 innings last season. Some regression wasn't surprising since the elite campaign had some underwhelming peripherals, but much like the White Sox in general, his fall in 2023 was steeper than anticipated. The underlying numbers flipped in the opposite direction, with a 3.72 FIP indicating he had some poor luck. Cease's strikeout rate dropped over three points to 27.3 percent, though he improved his walk rate slightly to 10.1 percent. A .330 BABIP and 41.5 percent hard-hit rate were both career worsts, the former of which was certainly affected by Chicago's horrid defense (minus-59 DRS). His true self likely falls somewhere in between the results of the past two seasons, making him somewhat of a volatile option for fantasy managers in 2024, though his strikeout floor is strong. Cease has also been regularly mentioned in trade rumors over the past year, and a move elsewhere would likely only improve his immediate outlook. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Projection

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#104

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 200

DOB 12/28/1995

Born Milton, GA

College None

Drafted 6th Rd 2014 CHC

Uninspiring performance in loss

PSan Diego Padres

September 8, 2024

Cease (12-11) took the loss against the Giants on Saturday, allowing four runs on six hits and two walks over six innings while striking out four.

ANALYSIS
Cease allowed at least one hit in each of his first four innings on the mound, including a three-run shot off the bat of Grant McCray in the top of the second as the Giants took an early lead. The right-hander also failed to retire each of the first three batters he faced in the fourth, leading to a fourth run coming home for San Francisco. Cease did still manage to make it through six innings for only the second time in his last eight starts (with one of those eight starts being shortened due to a rain delay), though he's now surrendered multiple free passes in three straight. It also marked his third loss in his last four decisions (spanning six starts).

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Dylan Cease generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Dylan Cease generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-16%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-4%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-14%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-26%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.234	1100	276	104	229	45	9	30
Since 2022vs Right	.197	1119	370	113	195	43	3	23
2024vs Left	.209	336	87	30	63	17	0	11
2024vs Right	.201	352	118	30	63	14	1	7
2023vs Left	.268	397	91	30	96	16	7	13
2023vs Right	.230	387	123	49	76	16	2	6
2022vs Left	.219	367	98	44	70	12	2	6
2022vs Right	.163	380	129	34	56	13	0	10
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-13%

ERA at Home

2024

-16%

ERA at Home

2023

-16%

ERA at Home

2022

-15%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.25	1.18	279.1	14	18	0	10.8	3.5	0.8
Since 2022Away	3.72	1.24	251.2	19	10	0	11.1	3.9	1.0
2024Home	3.36	1.09	77.2	5	7	0	11.4	2.7	0.9
2024Away	4.00	1.09	92.1	7	4	0	10.4	3.6	1.0
2023Home	4.20	1.44	94.1	3	7	0	9.9	4.6	0.8
2023Away	5.01	1.39	82.2	4	2	0	12.0	3.4	1.2
2022Home	2.35	1.02	107.1	6	4	0	11.2	3.2	0.8
2022Away	2.00	1.24	76.2	8	4	0	10.9	4.7	0.7
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Stat Review

How does Dylan Cease compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.42

K/9

10.9

BB/9

3.2

HR/9

1.0

Fastball

96.9 mph

ERA

3.71

WHIP

1.09

BABIP

.282

GB/FB

1.07

Left On Base

67.8%

Exit Velocity

81.4 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.7%

Spin Rate

2651 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

20.3%

Swinging Strike

14.7%

Prospect Rankings History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Cease followed up 2021's breakthrough campaign with an even better season, finishing a distant second to Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young voting. Cease started 32 games for the second straight season, finishing with a career-high 184 innings. It wasn't by much, but Cease's K% ticked down while his BB% inched up. A .260 BABIP and 82.3% LOB mark resulted in a 2.20 ERA, over a run below the associated 3.50 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA. Cease is being drafted ahead of starters with similar or better skills, but with a longer track record. If he can lower his 10% walk rate, Cease could be one of the best pitchers in the league. There is a pathway as Cease uses his fastball 47% of the time but throws it for a strike at a low 62% rate. Cease is a prime example of how pitchers can be both lucky and good. Dreaming of a lower walk rate is tempting, but the regression monster is looming with nightmare intentions.

Cease truthers were rewarded with the breakthrough season, but let's pump the fantasy ace brakes just a tad. The righthander made 32 starts and his 3.96 ERA was pegged a little lower by the estimators. The long-expected spike in strikeouts manifested, keyed by a slider with a 22.4% swinging strike rate. The yellow flags are a high walk rate and a flyball lean. The latter isn't necessarily an issue, but it can be when combined with excess free passes and a homer-friendly home venue. To be fair, Cease's BB% dropped to 9.6%, but that was still the second highest among qualified starters, resulting in averaging just 5.2 innings per start, the lowest among qualified starters. Youth is Cease's ally as he's entering his age-26 season. He may improve his control even more but paying for it is a risk. The upside is indeed elite, but there's also a chance Cease is a ratio buzzkill.

The unique circumstances surrounding the 2020 campaign weren't conducive for young arms to exhibit growth. Still, Cease's season was a big disappointment. His skills fell back across the board; he fanned fewer and walked more while allowing harder contact. Cease's 4.01 ERA was spared further harm by a .238 BABIP and 81.7 LOB%, both touched by Lady Luck, with a 5.87 xFIP and 5.86 SIERA more indicative of his true skill level. Command and control are Cease's primary issues. His pitch mix remained close to 2019, but he traded a few curves for sliders, his most effective offering. Last year, the right-hander threw his fastball for a strike just 61% of the time. Until he can locate his four-seamer better, he's just a guy with velocity. Entering his age-25 season, Cease is still young enough to prove he's more. However, other than youth and the reading on the radar gun, there's little reason for optimism.

There's hope that Cease's command will come along, but right now, it's lacking. STATS LLC's new Command+ metric, which attempts to judge a pitcher's intent on each throw, had Cease's command at 88 in his debut season (100 is average). His Zone% was 39.4, per FanGraphs, and Cease battled walk (10.7%) and home run (1.85 HR/9) issues during his time in the majors. The free passes were nothing new, as Cease hasn't had a BB rate below 10% at any stop. The good news is that his raw stuff is excellent. With a fastball that averages north of 96 mph, a plus breaking ball and a potential plus changeup, Cease is able to miss bats at a well-above-average clip (24.9 K%, 11.0 SwStr%). There's upside here if he ever figures out how to put the ball where he wants it. In the meantime, Cease should be viewed as a streamer, one with more favorable matchups than most given the weakness of his division.

Blessed with special arm speed, Cease has had a high-leverage reliever floor (with reasonable health) since entering pro ball, but in 2018 he made massive strides to show that his future may be atop a rotation. He tallied over 100 innings (124) for the first time, notched a career-best 3.6 BB/9 and improved his secondary pitches. His mid-90s fastball touches 98 mph and was more of a worm killer last year (1.14 GO/AO) than in 2017 (0.88 GO/AO). Cease's curveball is his second-best pitch -- a potentially plus offering -- and his changeup emerged as a viable third pitch, thanks largely to the strength of his fastball. His command may never be better than fringe average, but with his stuff, it doesn't need to be. The most impressive aspect of Cease's season was that he improved after his promotion to Double-A, posting career bests in FIP (1.72), WHIP (0.99) and K-BB% (27.7). He should open at Triple-A and could make his big-league debut this summer.

Cease is entering his age-22 season, has never pitched above Low-A and has never logged more than 93.1 innings in a season. Yet, his stuff is some of the filthiest in the minors. The 6-foot-2 righty sits in the mid-90s and can touch triple digits with his fastball. He also throws a curveball that can look like a monster putaway pitch when it's on. His changeup is a distant third pitch, but that's hardly the biggest knock on his chances of making it as a starter. He has been coddled ever since the Cubs drafted him in the sixth round in 2014. Cease was the secondary piece the White Sox received when they sent Jose Quintana across town, and he had to be shut down at the end of the season with shoulder fatigue. While he made significant strides with his command and control last season, that area of his game is still a weakness. His fragility and command issues point to a future as an impactful late-inning arm, but even that outcome requires patience.

The minor leagues are lighter on high probability impact talent than they have been in recent years, so this may be a good time to gamble on a player with extreme upside and extreme risk. Cease fits the bill. He has the potential for two monster pitches, yet his fringe-average changeup, below-average control and significant durability concerns should scare off most risk-averse owners. Prospect aficionados are aware of his fastball that sits in the upper-90s and can touch 101 mph with some armside run. He also features a potentially plus curveball that can be devastating when hitters sit on his heater. However, his to-do list for 2017 is long and arduous. Atop that list is improving his command and control after walking 13.7 percent of short-season batters. Cease, who underwent Tommy John surgery after the Cubs drafted him in the fourth round of the 2014 draft, also needs to build up his workload and show more feel for his changeup. His potential outcomes range from frontline starter to high-leverage reliever. This is a very exciting young arm.

A sixth-round pick in 2014, Cease made his pro debut last year for the rookie-level Cubs after missing 2014 following Tommy John surgery. With 25 strikeouts and a .145 BAA in 24 innings, he holds some promise. However, he walked 16 and hit two more, so he has a long way to go. He's still just 20 though, so he has time and the Cubs will be patient with him. Cease has a very high ceiling (he can touch 100 mph), but he's a risk given his prior elbow problems and control issues. However, that frontline upside makes him someone worth gambling on in dynasty leagues that roster 200 prospects. He may not make it to a full-season league in 2016, but the training wheels should come off in 2017, at which point he could start cruising up the organizational ladder.

More Fantasy News

Fades in sixth inning

PSan Diego Padres

September 1, 2024

Cease did not factor into the decision Sunday, allowing three runs on two hits and three walks over five innings against the Rays. He struck out four.