Dylan Cease

29-Year-Old PitcherSP

San Diego Padres

2025 Stats

W-L

1-3

ERA

4.58

WHIP

1.25

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

Unlock Our Projections

2025 Fantasy Outlook

Cease had an up-and-down career through five years with the White Sox, but he delivered on his potential in 2024 after being traded to the Padres and posted a 3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 224:65 K:BB over a career-high 189.1 innings. The right-hander had a career-best 8.5 percent walk rate, while a 29.4 percent strikeout rate ranked fifth best among qualified starting pitchers. He's entering his age-30 campaign and should be San Diego's ace in his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2025. Cease seems unlikely to recreate the 2.20 ERA from 2021 that resulted in a second-place finish in Cy Young voting since he significantly outperformed his peripherals that year, but he should continue to be a high-value fantasy starter in 2025 given his strikeout floor. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#49

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 200

DOB 12/28/1995

Born Milton, GA

College None

Drafted 6th Rd 2014 CHC

Notches eight Ks in no-decision

PSan Diego Padres

May 25, 2025

Cease did not factor into the decision in Sunday's 5-3 win at Atlanta, allowing three runs on six hits and one walk over five innings. He struck out eight.

ANALYSIS
Cease, a Georgia native, racked up 19 whiffs in this 88-pitch outing. With this performance, the San Diego right-hander struck out six or more batters for the fourth consecutive start. Over that span, he's pitched to a 3.20 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 33:5 K:BB across 25.1 innings. Through 59 total innings, Cease now sports a 4.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 72:20 K:BB. He is currently scheduled to make his next start next weekend against the Pirates, who are dead last in runs scored.

Read More News

Pitching Stats

Loading Pitching Stats...

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2025 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2024 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2023 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2022 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2021 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2020 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

2019 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Sorare

Loading Pitching Game Log...

Minor League Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...

Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Dylan Cease generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Dylan Cease generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-10%

BAA vs RHP

2025

-6%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-11%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-14%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2023vs Left	.240	891	221	75	192	41	7	29
Since 2023vs Right	.215	902	289	89	171	40	3	15
2025vs Left	.236	121	33	12	25	5	0	5
2025vs Right	.250	126	39	8	29	10	0	2
2024vs Left	.212	373	97	33	71	20	0	11
2024vs Right	.189	389	127	32	66	14	1	7
2023vs Left	.268	397	91	30	96	16	7	13
2023vs Right	.230	387	123	49	76	16	2	6
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-21%

ERA at Home

2025

-42%

ERA at Home

2024

-21%

ERA at Home

2023

-16%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2023Home	3.60	1.24	207.2	10	15	0	10.5	3.5	0.9
Since 2023Away	4.55	1.24	217.2	12	8	0	11.0	3.5	1.0
2025Home	3.29	1.28	27.1	1	1	0	11.9	3.0	1.3
2025Away	5.68	1.23	31.2	0	2	0	10.2	3.1	0.9
2024Home	3.03	1.01	86.0	6	7	0	10.8	2.4	0.8
2024Away	3.83	1.11	103.1	8	4	0	10.5	3.7	0.9
2023Home	4.20	1.44	94.1	3	7	0	9.9	4.6	0.8
2023Away	5.01	1.39	82.2	4	2	0	12.0	3.4	1.2
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Dylan Cease compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.60

K/9

11.0

BB/9

3.1

HR/9

1.1

Fastball

96.8 mph

ERA

4.58

WHIP

1.25

BABIP

.332

GB/FB

1.00

Left On Base

65.4%

Exit Velocity

83.2 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.9%

Spin Rate

2591 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

23.3%

Swinging Strike

15.9%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Dylan Cease Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Pitching Stats

Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...

Defensive Stats

Loading MLB Defensive Stats...

Stats Vs Today's Lineup

Want more matchup stats?

View Dylan Cease vs. Batter Stats

Loading Matchup Stats...

Padres Depth Chart

Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.

Subscribe Now

Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dylan Cease See More

Update: Are We Any Good At Predicting Pitcher Injuries?

2 days ago

Are fantasy baseball players any good at anticipating which pitchers will get hurt and which will remain healthy? Survey says...sort of?

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top Pitchers This Week

7 days ago

It's a slightly lighter week for pitchers on two scheduled appearances, so be sure to lock those starters in your lineups.

SEC Baseball Tournament Best Bets Today: May 21

10 days ago

The SEC Baseball Tournament rolls on Wednesday, and John Venezia has his best bets for the action with a focus on Kyson Witherspoon and Oklahoma vs Georgia.

MLB DFS Pitcher & Team Stacks Guide for Tuesday, May 20

11 days ago

Ryan Pohle dives into team stacks and pitchers for Tuesday's MLB slate, including Jesus Luzardo in a matchup against the struggling Rockies.

MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Top Plays and Strategy for Tuesday, May 20

11 days ago

Tuesday's top MLB DFS options on DraftKings include Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal on a slate that should feature plenty of value on offense.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Cease finished second in voting for the AL Cy Young in 2022 after he posted a 2.20 ERA in 32 starts, but he stumbled to a 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 214:79 K:BB over 177 innings last season. Some regression wasn't surprising since the elite campaign had some underwhelming peripherals, but much like the White Sox in general, his fall in 2023 was steeper than anticipated. The underlying numbers flipped in the opposite direction, with a 3.72 FIP indicating he had some poor luck. Cease's strikeout rate dropped over three points to 27.3 percent, though he improved his walk rate slightly to 10.1 percent. A .330 BABIP and 41.5 percent hard-hit rate were both career worsts, the former of which was certainly affected by Chicago's horrid defense (minus-59 DRS). His true self likely falls somewhere in between the results of the past two seasons, making him somewhat of a volatile option for fantasy managers in 2024, though his strikeout floor is strong. Cease has also been regularly mentioned in trade rumors over the past year, and a move elsewhere would likely only improve his immediate outlook.

Cease followed up 2021's breakthrough campaign with an even better season, finishing a distant second to Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young voting. Cease started 32 games for the second straight season, finishing with a career-high 184 innings. It wasn't by much, but Cease's K% ticked down while his BB% inched up. A .260 BABIP and 82.3% LOB mark resulted in a 2.20 ERA, over a run below the associated 3.50 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA. Cease is being drafted ahead of starters with similar or better skills, but with a longer track record. If he can lower his 10% walk rate, Cease could be one of the best pitchers in the league. There is a pathway as Cease uses his fastball 47% of the time but throws it for a strike at a low 62% rate. Cease is a prime example of how pitchers can be both lucky and good. Dreaming of a lower walk rate is tempting, but the regression monster is looming with nightmare intentions.

Cease truthers were rewarded with the breakthrough season, but let's pump the fantasy ace brakes just a tad. The righthander made 32 starts and his 3.96 ERA was pegged a little lower by the estimators. The long-expected spike in strikeouts manifested, keyed by a slider with a 22.4% swinging strike rate. The yellow flags are a high walk rate and a flyball lean. The latter isn't necessarily an issue, but it can be when combined with excess free passes and a homer-friendly home venue. To be fair, Cease's BB% dropped to 9.6%, but that was still the second highest among qualified starters, resulting in averaging just 5.2 innings per start, the lowest among qualified starters. Youth is Cease's ally as he's entering his age-26 season. He may improve his control even more but paying for it is a risk. The upside is indeed elite, but there's also a chance Cease is a ratio buzzkill.

The unique circumstances surrounding the 2020 campaign weren't conducive for young arms to exhibit growth. Still, Cease's season was a big disappointment. His skills fell back across the board; he fanned fewer and walked more while allowing harder contact. Cease's 4.01 ERA was spared further harm by a .238 BABIP and 81.7 LOB%, both touched by Lady Luck, with a 5.87 xFIP and 5.86 SIERA more indicative of his true skill level. Command and control are Cease's primary issues. His pitch mix remained close to 2019, but he traded a few curves for sliders, his most effective offering. Last year, the right-hander threw his fastball for a strike just 61% of the time. Until he can locate his four-seamer better, he's just a guy with velocity. Entering his age-25 season, Cease is still young enough to prove he's more. However, other than youth and the reading on the radar gun, there's little reason for optimism.

There's hope that Cease's command will come along, but right now, it's lacking. STATS LLC's new Command+ metric, which attempts to judge a pitcher's intent on each throw, had Cease's command at 88 in his debut season (100 is average). His Zone% was 39.4, per FanGraphs, and Cease battled walk (10.7%) and home run (1.85 HR/9) issues during his time in the majors. The free passes were nothing new, as Cease hasn't had a BB rate below 10% at any stop. The good news is that his raw stuff is excellent. With a fastball that averages north of 96 mph, a plus breaking ball and a potential plus changeup, Cease is able to miss bats at a well-above-average clip (24.9 K%, 11.0 SwStr%). There's upside here if he ever figures out how to put the ball where he wants it. In the meantime, Cease should be viewed as a streamer, one with more favorable matchups than most given the weakness of his division.

Blessed with special arm speed, Cease has had a high-leverage reliever floor (with reasonable health) since entering pro ball, but in 2018 he made massive strides to show that his future may be atop a rotation. He tallied over 100 innings (124) for the first time, notched a career-best 3.6 BB/9 and improved his secondary pitches. His mid-90s fastball touches 98 mph and was more of a worm killer last year (1.14 GO/AO) than in 2017 (0.88 GO/AO). Cease's curveball is his second-best pitch -- a potentially plus offering -- and his changeup emerged as a viable third pitch, thanks largely to the strength of his fastball. His command may never be better than fringe average, but with his stuff, it doesn't need to be. The most impressive aspect of Cease's season was that he improved after his promotion to Double-A, posting career bests in FIP (1.72), WHIP (0.99) and K-BB% (27.7). He should open at Triple-A and could make his big-league debut this summer.

Cease is entering his age-22 season, has never pitched above Low-A and has never logged more than 93.1 innings in a season. Yet, his stuff is some of the filthiest in the minors. The 6-foot-2 righty sits in the mid-90s and can touch triple digits with his fastball. He also throws a curveball that can look like a monster putaway pitch when it's on. His changeup is a distant third pitch, but that's hardly the biggest knock on his chances of making it as a starter. He has been coddled ever since the Cubs drafted him in the sixth round in 2014. Cease was the secondary piece the White Sox received when they sent Jose Quintana across town, and he had to be shut down at the end of the season with shoulder fatigue. While he made significant strides with his command and control last season, that area of his game is still a weakness. His fragility and command issues point to a future as an impactful late-inning arm, but even that outcome requires patience.

The minor leagues are lighter on high probability impact talent than they have been in recent years, so this may be a good time to gamble on a player with extreme upside and extreme risk. Cease fits the bill. He has the potential for two monster pitches, yet his fringe-average changeup, below-average control and significant durability concerns should scare off most risk-averse owners. Prospect aficionados are aware of his fastball that sits in the upper-90s and can touch 101 mph with some armside run. He also features a potentially plus curveball that can be devastating when hitters sit on his heater. However, his to-do list for 2017 is long and arduous. Atop that list is improving his command and control after walking 13.7 percent of short-season batters. Cease, who underwent Tommy John surgery after the Cubs drafted him in the fourth round of the 2014 draft, also needs to build up his workload and show more feel for his changeup. His potential outcomes range from frontline starter to high-leverage reliever. This is a very exciting young arm.

A sixth-round pick in 2014, Cease made his pro debut last year for the rookie-level Cubs after missing 2014 following Tommy John surgery. With 25 strikeouts and a .145 BAA in 24 innings, he holds some promise. However, he walked 16 and hit two more, so he has a long way to go. He's still just 20 though, so he has time and the Cubs will be patient with him. Cease has a very high ceiling (he can touch 100 mph), but he's a risk given his prior elbow problems and control issues. However, that frontline upside makes him someone worth gambling on in dynasty leagues that roster 200 prospects. He may not make it to a full-season league in 2016, but the training wheels should come off in 2017, at which point he could start cruising up the organizational ladder.

More Fantasy News

Fans six in quality start

PSan Diego Padres

May 20, 2025

Cease (1-3) took the loss Tuesday against the Blue Jays, allowing three runs on three hits and one walk in seven innings. He struck out six.