Fernando Tatis

24-Year-Old ShortstopSS

San Diego Padres

Suspension

Est. Return 4/20/2023

2022 Stats

AVG

.000

RBI

2023 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Tatis Jr may possibly be the biggest fantasy wildcard of 2023. He will be coming off an 80-game suspension for PEDs that will end earlier than initially projected since the Padres went deep into the NL playoffs. Tatis Jr is now projected to be back on the active roster in late April, but he has also undergone two different surgeries this winter. He finally had that long troublesome shoulder operated on as well as his left wrist. You add in the complexity of missing the entire 2022 season with his off the field antics leading to injury, the suspension, and two surgeries and we are left with how early someone will take the risk on a top five talent in a draft. The upside remains huge, but nobody can be blamed for passing on this maelstrom of risks as we have rarely seen so many red flags at one time with a player, let alone one of his caliber. The projections will likely look conservative for his talents, but with good reason. Simply put, he is going to make or break many fantasy teams in 2023. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

#17

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 217

DOB 1/2/1999

Born San Pedro de Macoris, DR

College None

Drafted 2015 CWS

Resumes swinging

SSSan Diego Padres

Suspension

January 26, 2023

Tatis (shoulder/wrist/suspension) took batting practice Thursday, Hector Gomez of Z101Digital.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Tatis was cleared to resume baseball activity Jan. 6 and this was his first public step toward returning to the field since. He is expected to be ready to participate at the start of spring training, though he'll still be required to sit out the first 20 games of the season due to a PED suspension. After missing the entire 2022 campaign, Tatis will have high expectations in 2023 after posting an OPS above .930 in all three of his previous seasons in the majors.

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Batting Stats

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2021

2020

2019

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+7%

OPS vs RHP

2022

No Stats

2021

+1%

OPS vs RHP

2020

+21%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.916	203	33	12	29	5	.273	.360	.557
Since 2020vs Right	.981	597	116	47	113	31	.284	.367	.615
2022vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021vs Left	.968	134	23	9	21	4	.284	.373	.595
2021vs Right	.978	412	76	33	76	21	.282	.362	.616
2020vs Left	.817	69	10	3	8	1	.250	.333	.483
2020vs Right	.989	185	40	14	37	10	.290	.378	.611
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+17%

OPS on Road

2022

No Stats

2021

+22%

OPS on Road

2020

+6%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.888	393	64	26	57	18	.251	.351	.537
Since 2020Away	1.038	407	85	33	85	18	.310	.378	.659
2022Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021Home	.875	267	42	18	41	12	.239	.345	.530
2021Away	1.069	279	57	24	56	13	.323	.384	.685
2020Home	.916	126	22	8	16	6	.275	.365	.550
2020Away	.969	128	28	9	29	5	.283	.367	.602
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Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Fernando Tatis Prospect Ranking History

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Additional Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

Tatis is now firmly entrenched in the conversation for the top player in fantasy baseball, but he is not without risk. Tatis scared us early in 2021 with a shoulder dislocation on a swing and the attached rumors he may need major surgery to correct it. It was the fifth time over the last calendar year Tatis had partially dislocated his shoulder. All he did around that was go out and post a monster fantasy season in 130 games and leave us wondering how awesome his numbers would have been if he played an entire season. Besides the ever-present fear of his shoulder popping out, his strikeouts are not getting much better, which puts a cap on how high his batting average can go in theory. Tim Anderson scoffs at that theory. Simply put, Tatis is an elite-level offensive talent who has the skills to put together the first 40-40 season since Alfonso Soriano in 2006, as long as his shoulder doesn't get worse.

Tatis was arguably the best player in baseball for much of the 2020 campaign, but a late-season swoon (.164/.242/.291 slash line over his final 62 PA) cost the youngster a legitimate shot at the NL MVP award. Still, Tatis solidified his reputation as one of the game's most exciting stars, finishing among a group of six players to register double-digit homers (17) and steals (11) in the shortened campaign. There's little Tatis doesn't do well; he consistently smashes the ball, ranking first among qualified hitters with a 62.2 Hard% and 95.9 mph average exit velocity and placing second with a 19.5% barrel rate last season. He also ranked in the 98th percentile in sprint speed, portending many years of juicy power-speed numbers to come. That's the kind of combination fantasy managers salivate over, so don't be surprised if Tatis goes first overall in a fair number of leagues ahead of the 2021 season.

In his rookie campaign, Tatis blew away the lofty expectations that accompanied his rise up the prospect rankings. Among players with 300 or more plate appearances, Tatis placed 11th in wRC+ (150) while ranking in the top 15 in traditional metrics such as batting average (.317), slugging percentage (.590) and OPS (.969). The phenom was limited to 84 games due to a pair of stints on the injured list, but when healthy he flashed an impressive combination of speed and power, swatting 22 home runs and utilizing baseball's 18th-best sprint speed (29.3 ft/s) to swipe 16 bases. Tatis' high strikeout rate (29.6%) and unsustainable BABIP (.410) portend some batting-average regression, but he'll be only 21 years old on Opening Day and should improve his plate discipline as he matures. Even with some imperfections, Tatis possesses the necessary tools to be a legitimate 30-30 threat for many seasons to come.

Tatis has had a lot of success (133 wRC+ at Double-A as a 19-year-old) relative to age and level, but there are red flags in his profile that are not shared by the game's other elite prospects. He has a 27.9% strikeout rate at Double-A and only 26.7% of his hits went to the opposite field last year. His physical gifts can't be taught (easy plus power, above-average speed and athleticism) and he didn't turn 20 until Jan. 2, but his approach undeniably needs some work. Tatis could eventually provide Trevor Story-esque production at shortstop, but there will likely be some bumps along the road against big-league pitching. He missed the final six weeks of 2018 with a broken thumb, but was ready for winter ball and will open 2019 at Triple-A. The Padres say they will keep him on a fast track, but unless there is significant skills growth with his approach, he should not be expected to hit for a high average against big-league pitching if he debuts this summer.

Tatis became the first 18-year-old in the modern era to post a 20-20 season in the Midwest League. The 6-foot-3, 185-pound quick-twitch athlete may have slightly misled dynasty-league owners with his 21-homer, 29-steal campaign. He projects to be a 30-homer threat in the majors, but his steal totals should decline annually as he continues to mature physically. It is extremely rare for players his age to hit for that kind of power at Low-A while also showcasing a quality approach (124:75 K:BB). He could struggle to hit much higher than .275, but given his age, athleticism and aptitude for making adjustments, anything is possible on that front. The same could be said for his ability to stick at shortstop, as many expect him to eventually end up at third base, but such a move is unlikely to be made for at least a couple years. He is on track to enter 2019 alongside another junior (Vladimir Guerrero) as a top-three prospect in baseball.

At the time of the trade, it seemed that the Padres were simply getting salary relief and a low-level minor league throw-in from the White Sox for James Shields. Now, general manager A.J. Preller can point to his acquisition of Tatis as one of his best moves in what has been a calendar year full of excellent maneuvers. He was an above-average hitter as a 17-year-old in both the Arizona and Northwest leagues last year, and is still just scratching the surface of his potential. Tatis is already 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, so he will likely grow out of shortstop, but his bat should be good enough for him to profile as at least an average regular at third base. So far he has shown more speed than power, but that will not be the case for much longer. Tatis could offer 25-30 homer pop as he continues to mature physically. His future value will hinge on the continued development of his bat, but he is well ahead of schedule.

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Cleared for baseball activites

SSSan Diego Padres

Suspension

January 6, 2023

Tatis (shoulder/wrist/suspension) was cleared to begin participating in baseball activities Friday, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports.