Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Houston Astros
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Valdez was one of just eight hurlers to log at least 200 innings as his 201.1 frames was the fifth most in MLB. He fell six strikeouts short of 200, but as an extreme groundball pitcher, Valdez is more concerned about minimizing barrels which he did, landing in the 75th percentile. Valdez threw his sinker half the time, followed by a 90th percentile spin rate curve. He introduced a cutter (which some classified as a slider), throwing it 10% of the time with a solid 18% swinging strike rate. Further refinement of Valdez's repertoire could improve his 23.5% strikeout rate, but he's likely more focused on improving on last season's 8.1% walk rate. Valdez doesn't fan ample batters to be a fantasy ace, but his volume of innings keeps the raw total sufficient for the next tier. Valdez is a bit of a WHIP risk as grounders often inflate BABIP, but they also limit homers, hence keeping ERA in check. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year, $3 million contract with the Astros in March of 2022.
Carries Houston to World Series win
PHouston Astros
November 5, 2022
Valdez pitched six innings and earned the win during Saturday's 4-1 victory over the Phillies in Game 6 of the World Series, allowing one run on two hits and two walks while striking out nine.
ANALYSIS
The only blemish on the night for Valdez came on a solo home run from Kyle Schwarber in the top of the sixth inning. The southpaw's sinker was electric in Game 6 -- of the nine outs from balls in play, his sinker forced six ground outs. The other nine outs came from strikeouts, the third consecutive game for Valdez with nine punchouts. The 28-year-old finished the postseason 3-0 with a stellar 1.44 ERA and 33 strikeouts across 25 innings. Valdez was arguably the best pitcher on the Houston staff and a major contributor to their postseason success.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
95
Last 10 Games
98
Last 5 Games
96
How many pitches does Framber Valdez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Framber Valdez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .214 323 88 31 60 5 2 4
Since 2020vs Right .227 1364 307 110 279 41 4 24
2022vs Left .192 147 36 14 25 2 0 1
2022vs Right .229 680 158 53 141 22 2 10
2021vs Left .225 96 26 12 18 2 0 3
2021vs Right .219 476 99 46 92 14 1 9
2020vs Left .243 80 26 5 17 1 2 0
2020vs Right .238 208 50 11 46 5 1 5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-23%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-36%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-17%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-2%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.51 1.27 179.2 15 7 0 10.3 3.7 0.6
Since 2020Away 2.70 1.11 227.0 18 8 0 7.5 2.7 0.7
2022Home 3.54 1.26 86.1 7 4 0 10.4 3.1 0.3
2022Away 2.27 1.08 115.0 10 2 0 7.4 2.9 0.6
2021Home 3.45 1.37 62.2 5 2 0 9.8 4.9 1.0
2021Away 2.88 1.14 72.0 6 4 0 7.1 3.0 0.6
2020Home 3.52 1.08 30.2 3 1 0 10.9 2.9 0.3
2020Away 3.60 1.15 40.0 2 2 0 8.8 1.4 0.9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Framber Valdez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.90
 
K/9
8.7
 
BB/9
3.0
 
HR/9
0.5
 
Fastball
94.0 mph
 
ERA
2.82
 
WHIP
1.16
 
BABIP
.293
 
GB/FB
5.21
 
Left On Base
74.4%
 
Exit Velocity
83.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.7%
 
Spin Rate
2325 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
28.4%
 
Swinging Strike
11.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Framber Valdez
MLB World Series Game 6 Picks: MLB Best Bets for Saturday, November 5
32 days ago
Juan Carlos Blanco offers his favorite bets for Game 6 of the World Series.
FanDuel MLB: Saturday World Series Game 6 Targets
32 days ago
Chris Bennett tackles picks for Game 6 of the World Series and suggests Rhys Hoskins against lefty Framber Valdez.
DraftKings MLB: Saturday Breakdown
32 days ago
There's one team Dan Marcus definitely prefers for Game 6. Read on to see if you can figure it out.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Saturday Picks
32 days ago
Chris Morgan analyzes the options for Game 6 of the World Series.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Strategy for World Series Game 2
39 days ago
Chris Bennett advocates for paying up for Yordan Alvarez to lead your FanDuel lineups for Game 2 of the World Series.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
Valdez overcame a finger injury that delayed his season debut, but he produced familiar results once he found his rhythm. He induced a 70.3% groundball rate, which helped him limit his home run rate to 0.8 HR/9. He'll need to maintain that carrying skill, as his 26.4 K% in 2020 predictably regressed due to a static swinging strike rate of 10.2% with a resulting 21.9 K%. While a contact-heavy approach carries plenty of risk, it did help Valdez work deep into games as he completed at least seven innings in eight of his 22 starts - a standout trait in the modern game. Moving forward, there isn't much room to expect Valdez to improve upon his 3.14 ERA in 2021, and instead it appears much more likely that mark regresses. Even so, his skillset should allow him to rack up plenty of volume and his strong team context should put him in the position to rack up wins.
Valdez stepped up in a huge way in the absences of Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy, ascending to previously unforeseen new heights. Valdez was stellar over his 11 regular-season appearances (10 starts) with a 2.85 FIP over 70.2 innings, and continued to shine throughout the postseason, even earning the Game 1 nod over Zack Greinke in the ALCS. The lefty had a 1.88 ERA and 26:10 K:BB over 24 playoff innings. Don't kick yourself if you did not see this breakout coming. Valdez showed flashes in 2018 but had an ugly 13.4 BB% in 2019 before suddenly finding his control and shaving his walk rate to just 5.6% while adding nearly six percentage points to his strikeout rate. With his heavy sinker-curveball approach, Valdez does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (career 62.8 GB%), but he had a very favorable schedule last season and it's fair to wonder how much of the control gains he might give back.
The young left-hander found success with the Astros in 2018 -- mostly working as a spot starter -- with a 2.19 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 37 innings, and he carried that performance through his first 16 outings in 2019. But Valdez had a 9.66 ERA across his final 31.2 innings and wasn't selected for the playoff roster as a result. The 26-year-old's major issue has always been walks, and his 13.8 BB% last season remains a concern. He looked much more comfortable at Triple-A with a 69:17 K:BB over 44.1 frames, but he was unable to carry that success into the majors. Valdez's hard sinker helped produce a 62.1% groundball rate, but the 25.7 HR/FB% illustrates his general inconsistency. He split time between the rotation and bullpen in 2019, but he seems more likely to benefit the Astros in relief this season given the more reliable starting options on the team.
Despite having made just two appearances above Double-A, Valdez was summoned to the big leagues in late August and went on to make five starts and three relief appearances for the Astros, finishing with an excellent 2.19 ERA. Although the results were impressive, there are reasons to be skeptical. He was never viewed as a particularly interesting prospect and was thought to be ticketed for a bullpen role, which still seems likely as he threw his third pitch (a changeup) just 1.7% of the time. He walked far too many batters (15.6%) -- another sign of a potential bullpen future -- which contributed to a forgettable 4.65 FIP. An excellent 70.3% groundball rate makes the lefty somewhat interesting, but he's far from a lock as a future starter and would certainly have far less fantasy appeal if he ends up in a long-relief role.
More Fantasy News
Stellar start in Game 2
PHouston Astros
October 29, 2022
Valdez pitched 6.1 innings and earned the win during Saturday's 5-2 win over the Phillies in Game 2 of the World Series, allowing one run on four hits and three walks while striking out nine.
ANALYSIS
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Dominant performance in Game 2
PHouston Astros
October 20, 2022
Valdez pitched seven innings and got the win Thursday night in Game 2 of the ALCS, allowing two unearned runs on four hits and zero walks while striking out nine during the 3-2 win over the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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Earns 17th win
PHouston Astros
October 5, 2022
Valdez (17-6) earned the win Wednesday, allowing two hits and one walk over five shutout innings against Philadelphia. He struck out 10.
ANALYSIS
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Tagged for six runs
PHouston Astros
October 1, 2022
Valdez (16-6) gave up six earned runs on nine hits and three walks while striking out two over 5.1 innings to take the loss in a 7-3 defeat against the Rays on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Sees end to quality-start streak
PHouston Astros
September 25, 2022
Valdez did not factor into the decision Saturday, allowing seven runs (four earned) on 11 hits and one walk over 5.1 innings against the Orioles. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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