Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

21-Year-Old CatcherC
New York Mets
Out
Injury Ankle
Est. Return 2/1/2023
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Generally considered a top-10 real-life prospect - although more divisive on fantasy rankings - Alvarez is best known for his impressive age-to-level advancement through the minors and huge raw power. He got his first MLB cup of coffee as a 20-year-old after slashing .260/.374/.510 with a 24.8 K%, 14.1 BB% and 36.3 Hard% across Double-A and Triple-A. Alvarez, who turned 21 in November, is well ahead of the typical catcher his age on the developmental path. He is also an oddity from a physical standpoint, as he is generously listed at 5-foot-10 and a similarly favorable 233 pounds. We've seen boxy catchers have success, but there's no denying he is a 20-grade athlete who figures to get even less agile over the coming years. His hard-hit data and in-game performance suggest he could hit double-digit homers as a rookie, but it seems like a neutral batting average would be a best-case scenario. He will always be more valuable in OBP leagues. Alvarez underwent ankle surgery in October but is expected to be ready to compete for the starting catcher job in spring training. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a $2.7 million contract with the Mets in July of 2018.
Undergoes surgery
CNew York Mets
Ankle
October 18, 2022
Alvarez underwent surgery on his right ankle Thursday, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
ANALYSIS
The surgery was done to address the cartilage damage Alvarez suffered in late August, when he was still playing at Triple-A Syracuse. The procedure was an option at the time Alvarez suffered the injury, though he opted to play through it in the short term. Alvarez is expected to be fully healthy for spring training, when he'll have the chance to compete for a roster spot to break camp with the big-league club. He'll maintain rookie eligibility in 2023 after appearing in only five games for the Mets late in the season.
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Batting Stats
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2022
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-100%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
-100%
OPS vs RHP
2021
No Stats
2020
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .000 4 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Since 2020vs Right 1.150 10 3 1 1 0 .250 .400 .750
2022vs Left .000 4 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
2022vs Right 1.150 10 3 1 1 0 .250 .400 .750
2021vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-100%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
-100%
OPS at Home
2021
No Stats
2020
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home 2.167 6 3 1 1 0 .500 .667 1.500
Since 2020Away .000 8 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
2022Home 2.167 6 3 1 1 0 .500 .667 1.500
2022Away .000 8 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
2021Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Francisco Alvarez compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.50
 
BB Rate
14.3%
 
K Rate
28.6%
 
BABIP
.143
 
ISO
.333
 
AVG
.167
 
OBP
.286
 
SLG
.500
 
OPS
.786
 
wOBA
.339
 
Exit Velocity
89.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
50.0%
 
Barrels/PA
21.4%
 
Expected BA
.252
 
Expected SLG
.654
 
Sprint Speed
23.7 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
50.0%
 
Line Drive %
12.5%
 
Fly Ball %
37.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Francisco Alvarez
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
60 days ago
Jan Levine concludes his column for the season with a look at the remaining schedule while also offering potential stash candidates.
The Catcher Renaissance
63 days ago
James Anderson details the boom in quality offensive catchers for dynasty leagues and redraft leagues and the supply and demand issues that will spawn from this catcher renaissance.
MLB Hitting Prospect Draft For 2023
85 days ago
James Anderson conducted a draft of hitting prospects for 2023 redraft value only, in which he landed Vaughn Grissom with the No. 4 overall pick.
Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers
93 days ago
Jesse Siegel checks out which up-and-comers could get promoted and who may have to wait until 2023.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
123 days ago
With only a couple days before the trade deadline, Jan Levine checks out a few NLers who could benefit from upcoming transactions.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
Alvarez quickly showed that he was too advanced for an age-appropriate assignment to Low-A, hitting .417 with two home runs, five doubles, 15 walks and seven strikeouts in 15 games before getting a bump to High-A, where he was the only qualified 19-year-old hitter. His production there was still excellent, albeit less outrageous. He hit .247/.351/.538 with 22 home runs, a 12.0 BB% and a 24.6 K% in 84 games. Given how stocky and slow he is, it's not surprising that his 49.8 Pull% and 45.2 GB% resulted in a .260 BABIP. It's unrealistic to expect Alvarez to be much better than a neutral fantasy contributor in batting average, but that's still a strong outcome for a primary catcher with at least plus power. His defense behind the plate isn't amazing, but he will stick at the position. Given how quickly he has moved up the ladder and how productive he has been, Alvarez is one of the few catching prospects with a realistic chance to be a top-five fantasy option at the position. He will reach the majors in 2023 or 2024.
Alvarez was the youngest player at the Mets' alternate training site and received rave reviews for his work on both sides of the ball. At 5-foot-11, 220 pounds, he is physically mature and his strength shows up in the form of plus all-fields power and a plus arm. His hit tool and approach are pretty advanced, but he will probably be power over hit in the majors. He was so good offensively in 2019 as a 17-year-old that some outside the organization speculated that he might be moved off catcher to fast-track his bat to the majors, but the Mets are keeping him behind the dish, which means he will need a couple more years in the minors to master the position. Evaluating catchers for dynasty leagues, especially ones who are multiple years away from contributing, is always a challenge, but he clearly has the upside to be a top-five fantasy catcher for a decade.
This offseason's catching prospect du jour, Alvarez was aggressively assigned to the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year-old, but that lasted just seven games (281 wRC+) before he needed to be given an even more ludicrous assignment. Six months younger than the next youngest hitter in the Appalachian League, Alvarez still managed to thrive, logging a 129 wRC+, 11.3 BB% and 21.9 K% while using the whole field (35.7 Oppo%) and lifting the ball with ease (38.1 GB%). The fact that he is a catching prospect is what makes this insane, as catchers typically lag a couple years behind other position players on their march to the big leagues, due to the time and effort needed to become a capable defender. Alvarez can improve his framing, but nobody questions his ability to stick behind the plate. He could be a 60- or 70-grade hitter with plus power and good on-base skills, and his bat should keep him on a fast track.
More Fantasy News
Launches first career homer
CNew York Mets
October 5, 2022
Alvarez went 2-for-2 with a double and a solo home run in the second game of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
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Officially promoted Friday
CNew York Mets
September 30, 2022
Alvarez was called up to the Mets' big league roster and is set to make his major-league debut Friday against Atlanta, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
ANALYSIS
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Set to join big-league club
CNew York Mets
September 29, 2022
Alvarez will join the Mets' big-league roster Friday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Rejoins Triple-A lineup
CNew York Mets
September 12, 2022
Alvarez (ankle) returned to the lineup Sunday for Triple-A Syracuse, serving as the club's designated hitter while going 0-for-4 with a strikeout.
ANALYSIS
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Avoiding surgery on ankle
CNew York Mets
Ankle
September 1, 2022
The Mets announced Thursday that Alvarez has been diagnosed with a loose body in his right ankle but won't need surgery to address the injury, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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