Gabriel Arias

23-Year-Old Third Baseman3B

Cleveland Guardians

2023 Stats

AVG

.211

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Arias actually took a step back in 2022, posting a .240/.310/.406 slash line in 77 games at Triple-A Columbus. He also got his first taste of the big leagues, hitting a home run with five RBI and a stolen base while slashing .191/.321/.319 in 57 plate appearances for the Guardians. Still a decent prospect entering his age-23 season, Arias' biggest issue at this point may be a consistent spot in the lineup. Jose Ramirez is signed long-term at third base, while Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez proved to be one of last year's most surprisingly good middle-infield duos. Arias saw time at all four infield positions during his cup of coffee in the majors, so he should at least provide pressure on the starters to maintain their hitting if he breaks camp with the Guardians. That said, his numbers from last year suggest he could benefit from another stint in Triple-A to build up some confidence after a rough year. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#599

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 185

DOB 2/27/2000

Drafted 2016

Swats fourth home run

3BCleveland Guardians

June 1, 2023

Arias went 1-for-3 with two walks and a two-run home run in Wednesday's 12-8 win over the Orioles.

ANALYSIS
Since mid-May, Arias has gotten semi-regular at-bats while playing multiple different positions, but he's slashing just .198/.298/.385 across 40 games (104 plate appearances). He's started just 28 games this year but is still tied with Josh Bell for the third-most home runs on the team (four). Despite the poor overall numbers, the Guardians will likely continue to find ways to get Arias' bat in the lineup, at least against lefties.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2023 MLB Game Log

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Scoring

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2022 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+96%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+142%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+32%

OPS vs RHP

2021

No Stats

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.442	71	3	1	4	0	.138	.211	.231
Since 2021vs Right	.868	94	15	4	7	1	.260	.387	.481
2023vs Left	.386	46	2	1	1	0	.119	.196	.190
2023vs Right	.934	62	7	3	5	0	.283	.387	.547
2022vs Left	.544	25	1	0	3	0	.174	.240	.304
2022vs Right	.720	32	8	1	2	1	.208	.387	.333
2021vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

+56%

OPS on Road

2023

+74%

OPS on Road

2022

+45%

OPS on Road

2021

No Stats

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.548	97	10	1	3	1	.171	.292	.256
Since 2021Away	.855	68	8	4	8	0	.250	.338	.517
2023Home	.490	48	2	0	0	0	.146	.271	.220
2023Away	.852	60	7	4	6	0	.259	.333	.519
2022Home	.605	49	8	1	3	1	.195	.313	.293
2022Away	.875	8	1	0	2	0	.167	.375	.500
2021Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Stat Review

How does Gabriel Arias compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.35

BB Rate

12.0%

K Rate

34.3%

BABIP

.296

ISO

.179

AVG

.211

OBP

.306

SLG

.389

OPS

.695

wOBA

.310

Exit Velocity

91.4 mph

Hard Hit Rate

37.9%

Barrels/PA

4.6%

Expected BA

.193

Expected SLG

.394

Sprint Speed

25.3 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

50.0%

Line Drive %

14.3%

Fly Ball %

35.7%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Gabriel Arias Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2020

2019

The youngest qualified hitter at Triple-A by five months, Arias was still able to log a .284/.348/.454 slash line and 115 wRC+. Known for his plus defense at shortstop and above-average power, Arias has some similarities to Willy Adames. Unlike most shortstop prospects, Arias won't be a major factor on the bases (five steals on six attempts in 115 games last year), but given defense and current game power, he has a chance to be an everyday player. His 13 home runs and .170 ISO were strong marks, given his age, and there's room for improvement if he can cut his 50.2 GB%. Arias' 24.3 LD%, 39.6 Pull% and 36.3 Oppo% are strong indicators for the direction his hit tool is trending. He is already on the 40-man roster and doesn't have much left to prove at Triple-A. Amed Rosario seems to have a solid hold on the shortstop job in Cleveland, but second base is up for grabs, and third base could also be open if they trade Jose Ramirez.

Arias was the second-youngest player in the Cal League but was the 12th-best hitter (120 wRC+) on the circuit, despite having the second-worst walk rate (4.9 BB%) of 46 qualified hitters. He has above-average power and below-average pitch recognition. Arias punishes pitches in the zone, but is the type of hitter who could be retired via three straight offspeed pitches out of the zone. The Padres quieted his setup, leading to a .350/.378/.549 slash line and 20.6 K% in 238 PA from July 1 on, but he also logged a .411 BABIP over that stretch. If he were a corner outfielder or first baseman, Arias' lack of plate discipline would make him a fringe prospect, but he also happens to have a chance to be a special defender at shortstop, even though he is a below-average runner. He probably fits best in another organization, where his power and defense would earn him everyday work despite a middling BA and low OBP.

Selective endpoints can be a dangerous tool for player analysis, but consider the following: Arias, the youngest player in the Midwest League (by four months), hit .212/.272/.270 in his first 305 PA. He then hit .282/.347/.475 with five home runs in his final 199 PA. This might mean nothing -- he struck out roughly 29.5% of the time across both stretches and had a .393 BABIP over those final 48 games. However, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs reported in late August that Arias had adopted a "monster leg kick" later in the season that unlocked some power. Longenhagen added that Arias was essentially out of shape at the start of the year, but by the end he was back to resembling the player who hit .271/.310/.486 with five home runs in 107 at-bats as a 17-year-old in the Australian Baseball League last winter. The selling point on Arias is that he might be the best pure shortstop in the Padres' system and doesn't turn 19 until late February.

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