2024 Stats
W-L
11-9
ERA
3.49
WHIP
1.27
K
179
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
After receiving an encouraging cup of coffee to end the 2022 season, Brown broke camp in the Astros rotation where he stayed all season. He made 31 appearances, with 29 starts. His 5.09 ERA is misleading as his 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA suggest Brown experienced some misfortune. The main culprits were a bloated .330 BABIP, a low 68.8 percent left on base mark and an extremely high 21.0 percent home run per fly ball clip. It's never all bad luck, but these metrics all scream impending regression. Brown's 18.5 percent K-BB percent ranked an impressive 21st among pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched. The 25-year-old right-hander threw his 96-mph four seamer 46 percent of the time, but his 26.8 percent strikeout rate was driven by his curveball utilized at a 24 percent clip. Brown also toyed with a splitter with encouraging results. The Houston organization is adept at fine tuning their pitcher's repertoire, boding well for Brown to take the next step, beyond what natural regression will provide. Top-30 starting potential from a pitcher coming off a season with a 5.09 ERA is a great target. Read Past Outlooks
Taking mound Wednesday
Brown will start Wednesday in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series against the Tigers, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
The Astros fell to the Tigers, 3-1, in Game 1 on Tuesday and will send Brown to the bump for an elimination game. The 26-year-old allowed one run on three hits and a walk in his last start Sept. 23. The right-hander, who'll be on extended rest, will look to help preserve Houston's season.
The Astros fell to the Tigers, 3-1, in Game 1 on Tuesday and will send Brown to the bump for an elimination game. The 26-year-old allowed one run on three hits and a walk in his last start Sept. 23. The right-hander, who'll be on extended rest, will look to help preserve Houston's season.
Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
93
Last 10 Games
99
Last 5 Games
98
How many pitches does Hunter Brown generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Hunter Brown generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-21%
BAA vs LHP
2024
-25%
BAA vs LHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2022vs Left | .220 | 202 | 72 | 145 | 19 | |||
| Since 2022vs Right | .279 | 177 | 50 | 183 | 25 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .209 | 103 | 37 | 71 | 10 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .279 | 76 | 23 | 85 | 8 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .246 | 85 | 30 | 68 | 9 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .276 | 93 | 25 | 89 | 17 | |||
| 2022vs Left | .136 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 0 | |||
| 2022vs Right | .310 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 0 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-20%
ERA on Road
2024
-8%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2022Home | 4.53 | 1.33 | 169.0 | 9.9 | 3.8 | ||||
| Since 2022Away | 3.61 | 1.27 | 177.0 | 9.8 | 2.6 | ||||
| 2024Home | 3.35 | 1.19 | 86.0 | 9.3 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2024Away | 3.64 | 1.36 | 84.0 | 9.6 | 2.9 | ||||
| 2023Home | 6.56 | 1.57 | 72.2 | 10.5 | 4.2 | ||||
| 2023Away | 3.80 | 1.18 | 83.0 | 10.1 | 2.3 | ||||
| 2022Home | 0.00 | 0.87 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2022Away | 1.80 | 1.30 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 2.7 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Hunter Brown compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
2.98K/9
9.5BB/9
3.2HR/9
1.0Fastball
95.9 mphERA
3.49WHIP
1.27BABIP
.315GB/FB
1.69Left On Base
76.0%Exit Velocity
80.9 mphBarrels/BBE
2.5%Spin Rate
2195 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
16.9%Swinging Strike
10.6%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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2023 Fantasy Outlook
Armed with an upper-90s fastball, low-80s curveball with above-average drop and a 93-mph slider, Brown has the type of modern pitch mix that passes the eye test and excites data analysts. For years, prospect analysts knew of Brown's impressive repertoire, but it wasn't until late in 2021 that he started to throw strikes at a rate that suggested he could make it as a starter. His walk rate at Triple-A and the majors has been between 8.8% and 10.6%, which is still on the high end for a starter, but it's workable and at 24 years old, there's still room for improvement. In addition to missing bats at an above-average clip, Brown has typically logged elite groundball rates north of 50%. There would be much more redraft buzz if the Astros didn't have perhaps the deepest rotation in the game. As such, it's unclear how many starts he will make in 2023, but there is a very high long-term ceiling.
More Fantasy News
Strikes out eight in loss
Brown (11-9) allowed a run on three hits and three walks while striking out eight over six innings to take the loss versus the Mariners on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Bounces back against Padres
Brown did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Padres, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out three over six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Loses to Athletics
Brown (11-8) allowed five runs on nine hits and a walk while striking out seven over five-plus innings to take the loss Wednesday versus the Athletics.
ANALYSIS
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Strong start in no-decision
Brown did not factor into the decision Thursday against Cincinnati, allowing four hits and one walk over six scoreless innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Third straight quality start
Brown did not factor into the decision in the Astros' 6-3 win over the Royals on Thursday, allowing two unearned runs on two hits and two walks over 6.2 innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Extension unlikely
According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, "it's difficult to envision" Brown and the Astros agreeing to a contract extension.
ANALYSIS
The 26-year-old switched agents last week when he hired Scott Boras and now appears more likely to test free agency down the line. Brown's first year of arbitration eligibility won't be until 2026, so he still has multiple years of team control. The right-hander locked down his rotation spot during the 2024 regular season with a 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 179:60 K:BB across 170 innings.
The 26-year-old switched agents last week when he hired Scott Boras and now appears more likely to test free agency down the line. Brown's first year of arbitration eligibility won't be until 2026, so he still has multiple years of team control. The right-hander locked down his rotation spot during the 2024 regular season with a 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 179:60 K:BB across 170 innings.