Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Houston Astros
2025 Fantasy Outlook
In eight games in 2024, Brown was 1-4 with a 7.71 ERA and a 5.52 FIP, and he allowed 21 walks and 8 homers in 37.1 innings of work. Many, including the staffer writing this outlook, dropped him after the terrible start. Brown then went on to close the month of May with two quality starts with 12 strikeouts, three walks and just a single homer against the Angels and Mariners. Brown then did for you what he wasn't doing the first third of the season and went 10-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP along with a 18.4 percent K-BB percentage the rest of this season. Brown credited time spent with Ryan Pressly and Alex Bregman on approaching his game plan and batters, but the addition of a sinker in late May certainly helped, as it gave Brown a pitch that moved into righties and away from lefties. By season's end, the sinker was Brown's primary pitch, and the league struggled to square up most of his offerings after May. Only that sinker had an actual batting average against over .250, and Brown used six different pitch types to righties and lefties, keeping them on their toes. Houston has some changes to its overall roster, but Brown's significant step forward in 2024 in the face of some early statistical adversity has certainly raised his draft profile. Dare we say dark horse Cy Young candidate? Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#115
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Astros in March of 2024.
Works two innings in spring debut
PHouston Astros
March 3, 2025
Brown allowed a hit and two walks across two scoreless innings in Friday's Grapefruit League game against St. Louis, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
Brown was shaky to start the game, with all three of the baserunners he allowed coming in a 26-pitch first inning. However, he noted he felt better in his second frame and threw a perfect inning while hitting 98 mph with his fastball as measured by the stadium scoreboard.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
2022
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2024 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-18%
BAA vs LHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .226 689 188 67 139 27 2 19
Since 2023vs Right .277 688 169 48 174 23 2 25
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .209 379 103 37 71 10 2 10
2024vs Right .279 333 76 23 85 6 0 8
2023vs Left .246 310 85 30 68 17 0 9
2023vs Right .276 355 93 25 89 17 2 17
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-23%
ERA on Road
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-8%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-42%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 4.82 1.36 158.2 9 14 0 9.9 3.8 1.3
Since 2023Away 3.72 1.27 167.0 13 8 0 9.9 2.6 1.1
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 3.35 1.19 86.0 5 5 0 9.3 3.5 1.2
2024Away 3.64 1.36 84.0 6 4 0 9.6 2.9 0.8
2023Home 6.56 1.57 72.2 4 9 0 10.5 4.2 1.5
2023Away 3.80 1.18 83.0 7 4 0 10.1 2.3 1.5
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Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Hunter Brown See More
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2 days ago
With supposed paragon of durability George Kirby opening the year on the injured list, it's time to ask whether or not we really have any idea about which pitchers are injury-prone.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: We Made It!
2 days ago
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MLB Stat Leaders and MLB Awards Best Bets 2025
2 days ago
Get your MLB Awards and stat leaders best bets analysis from John Venezia before the season gets into full swing on Opening Day this Thursday.
RotoWire Roundtable: Updated Fantasy Baseball Top-300 Rankings
7 days ago
The latest update to the RotoWire Roundtable Rankings sees Jackson Chourio move into the back of the first round.
RotoWire Roundtable Rankings: Bobby Witt Claims the Top Spot
14 days ago
With Shohei Ohtani set for more days off and fewer steals this season, Bobby Witt Jr. has moved into the top spot in our Roundtable Rankings.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
After receiving an encouraging cup of coffee to end the 2022 season, Brown broke camp in the Astros rotation where he stayed all season. He made 31 appearances, with 29 starts. His 5.09 ERA is misleading as his 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA suggest Brown experienced some misfortune. The main culprits were a bloated .330 BABIP, a low 68.8 percent left on base mark and an extremely high 21.0 percent home run per fly ball clip. It's never all bad luck, but these metrics all scream impending regression. Brown's 18.5 percent K-BB percent ranked an impressive 21st among pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched. The 25-year-old right-hander threw his 96-mph four seamer 46 percent of the time, but his 26.8 percent strikeout rate was driven by his curveball utilized at a 24 percent clip. Brown also toyed with a splitter with encouraging results. The Houston organization is adept at fine tuning their pitcher's repertoire, boding well for Brown to take the next step, beyond what natural regression will provide. Top-30 starting potential from a pitcher coming off a season with a 5.09 ERA is a great target.
Armed with an upper-90s fastball, low-80s curveball with above-average drop and a 93-mph slider, Brown has the type of modern pitch mix that passes the eye test and excites data analysts. For years, prospect analysts knew of Brown's impressive repertoire, but it wasn't until late in 2021 that he started to throw strikes at a rate that suggested he could make it as a starter. His walk rate at Triple-A and the majors has been between 8.8% and 10.6%, which is still on the high end for a starter, but it's workable and at 24 years old, there's still room for improvement. In addition to missing bats at an above-average clip, Brown has typically logged elite groundball rates north of 50%. There would be much more redraft buzz if the Astros didn't have perhaps the deepest rotation in the game. As such, it's unclear how many starts he will make in 2023, but there is a very high long-term ceiling.
More Fantasy News
Taking mound Wednesday
PHouston Astros
October 1, 2024
Brown will start Wednesday in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series against the Tigers, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out eight in loss
PHouston Astros
September 23, 2024
Brown (11-9) allowed a run on three hits and three walks while striking out eight over six innings to take the loss versus the Mariners on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Bounces back against Padres
PHouston Astros
September 18, 2024
Brown did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Padres, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out three over six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Loses to Athletics
PHouston Astros
September 11, 2024
Brown (11-8) allowed five runs on nine hits and a walk while striking out seven over five-plus innings to take the loss Wednesday versus the Athletics.
ANALYSIS
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Strong start in no-decision
PHouston Astros
September 5, 2024
Brown did not factor into the decision Thursday against Cincinnati, allowing four hits and one walk over six scoreless innings. He struck out six.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Extension unlikely
PHouston Astros
November 6, 2024
According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, "it's difficult to envision" Brown and the Astros agreeing to a contract extension.
ANALYSIS
The 26-year-old switched agents last week when he hired Scott Boras and now appears more likely to test free agency down the line. Brown's first year of arbitration eligibility won't be until 2026, so he still has multiple years of team control. The right-hander locked down his rotation spot during the 2024 regular season with a 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 179:60 K:BB across 170 innings.
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