Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown

25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Houston Astros
2024 Fantasy Outlook
After receiving an encouraging cup of coffee to end the 2022 season, Brown broke camp in the Astros rotation where he stayed all season. He made 31 appearances, with 29 starts. His 5.09 ERA is misleading as his 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA suggest Brown experienced some misfortune. The main culprits were a bloated .330 BABIP, a low 68.8 percent left on base mark and an extremely high 21.0 percent home run per fly ball clip. It's never all bad luck, but these metrics all scream impending regression. Brown's 18.5 percent K-BB percent ranked an impressive 21st among pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched. The 25-year-old right-hander threw his 96-mph four seamer 46 percent of the time, but his 26.8 percent strikeout rate was driven by his curveball utilized at a 24 percent clip. Brown also toyed with a splitter with encouraging results. The Houston organization is adept at fine tuning their pitcher's repertoire, boding well for Brown to take the next step, beyond what natural regression will provide. Top-30 starting potential from a pitcher coming off a season with a 5.09 ERA is a great target. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#175
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Astros in March of 2024.
Works around four walks in win
PHouston Astros
June 8, 2024
Brown (2-5) allowed two hits and four walks while striking out seven over six scoreless innings to earn the win over the Angels on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Brown logged his fourth straight quality start, and he's given up just six runs with a 26:8 K:BB over 24 innings, though this is his only win over that stretch. It continues a positive trend for Brown, who is pitching deeper into games, though his 4.3 BB/9 on the year remains alarmingly high. The right-hander also has a 5.58 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 67:29 K:BB over 61.1 innings through 13 appearances (12 starts). He's tentatively projected to make his next start at home versus the Tigers.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
86
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
94
How many pitches does Hunter Brown generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Hunter Brown generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-56%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .239 515 141 51 110 25 3 14
Since 2022vs Right .279 502 126 40 126 22 2 23
2024vs Left .257 156 42 16 36 7 2 5
2024vs Right .280 116 25 13 28 2 0 6
2023vs Left .246 310 85 30 68 17 0 9
2023vs Right .276 355 93 25 89 17 2 17
2022vs Left .136 49 14 5 6 1 1 0
2022vs Right .310 31 8 2 9 3 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-21%
ERA on Road
2024
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-42%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 5.42 1.43 119.2 6 11 0 9.9 4.2 1.5
Since 2022Away 4.28 1.33 117.2 9 7 0 10.3 2.7 1.3
2024Home 4.66 1.31 36.2 1 2 0 8.6 4.4 2.0
2024Away 6.93 1.82 24.2 1 3 0 11.7 4.0 1.1
2023Home 6.56 1.57 72.2 4 9 0 10.5 4.2 1.5
2023Away 3.80 1.18 83.0 7 4 0 10.1 2.3 1.5
2022Home 0.00 0.87 10.1 1 0 0 10.5 3.5 0.0
2022Away 1.80 1.30 10.0 1 0 0 9.0 2.7 0.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Hunter Brown compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.31
 
K/9
9.8
 
BB/9
4.3
 
HR/9
1.6
 
Fastball
95.4 mph
 
ERA
5.58
 
WHIP
1.52
 
BABIP
.333
 
GB/FB
1.98
 
Left On Base
69.6%
 
Exit Velocity
82.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.0%
 
Spin Rate
2211 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
20.1%
 
Swinging Strike
10.4%
 
Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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13 days ago
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Trajectory skyrocketing?
PHouston Astros
April 17, 2023
Brown has thrown 14.0 scoreless innings across his last two starts, striking out 12 while walking three over that span.
ANALYSIS
Brown entered the season among the highest regarded pitching prospects in baseball. After a mixed trio of appearances to start the season, Brown has been dialed in of late. His 1.02 WHIP ranks in the top-15 among all American League arms, and he's trending upward. He's worth a look in nearly all formats.
See All MLB Rumors
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Armed with an upper-90s fastball, low-80s curveball with above-average drop and a 93-mph slider, Brown has the type of modern pitch mix that passes the eye test and excites data analysts. For years, prospect analysts knew of Brown's impressive repertoire, but it wasn't until late in 2021 that he started to throw strikes at a rate that suggested he could make it as a starter. His walk rate at Triple-A and the majors has been between 8.8% and 10.6%, which is still on the high end for a starter, but it's workable and at 24 years old, there's still room for improvement. In addition to missing bats at an above-average clip, Brown has typically logged elite groundball rates north of 50%. There would be much more redraft buzz if the Astros didn't have perhaps the deepest rotation in the game. As such, it's unclear how many starts he will make in 2023, but there is a very high long-term ceiling.
More Fantasy News
Third straight quality start
PHouston Astros
June 2, 2024
Brown did not factor into the decision Sunday, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk over six innings against the Twins. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Bullpen spoils bid Tuesday
PHouston Astros
May 29, 2024
Brown did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Mariners, allowing one run on four hits and no walks while striking out nine in six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Quality start in Wednesday's loss
PHouston Astros
May 22, 2024
Brown (1-5) was the pitcher of record in Wednesday's 2-1 loss to the Angels, giving up two runs on two hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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Wins with shaky outing
PHouston Astros
May 18, 2024
Brown (1-4) yielded four runs on four hits and three walks over five innings Friday, striking out five and earning a win over the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Rejoining rotation this weekend
PHouston Astros
May 13, 2024
Astros manager Joe Espada said that Brown will make a start during the team's three-game home series versus the Brewers this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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