Jazz Chisholm

What could have been. Chisholm Jr was on pace for a monster fantasy season in Miami after a winter where many debated his fantasy merits but the dream lasted just 60 games as a stress fracture in his back and a torn meniscus ended his season in late June. Preseason projections had him in the 20-20 aea with a low batting average, but Chisholm Jr was on pace to toy with a 30-30 season and finished 11 points above the league-wide batting average thanks to his willingness to accept a few more walks and chasing fewer pitches out of the zone. He has had a full-time role for two seasons in Miami, but we have yet to see a full-season of play from him and he has now lost his dual-eligibility as he is exclusively a second baseman. The 30-30 potential is still there for Chisholm Jr if the body is healthy and the next manager allows the team to run as Mattingly did this past season. The health risk should give you pause if you are considering reaching for the upside here.

Chisholm has channeled his athleticism to become one of the league's best power-speed combos. The power and speed weren't in doubt as he progressed through the minors. The question was whether he had enough plate discipline and contact skills to get on base. Those doubts were front and center in 2020 when his strikeout rate was over 30% and he posted a .242 OBP. While he barely lowered his strikeouts, his .319 BABIP helped push his OBP over .300. He didn't end the season on a high note with a .278 OBP in the second half (.258 OBP in September). Pitchers started adjusting to him by throwing him fewer fastballs (48% to 45%) and fewer pitches in the strike zone. While he has problems getting on base, his power and speed stayed elite with his avgEV up from 87.1 mph in 2020 to 90.2 mph and his sprint speed ranking in the 94th percentile.

Chisholm making his debut in the shortened season was unexpected, so the fact that he struggled in that tiny sample is close to irrelevant when assessing his long-term outlook. Miami traded Zac Gallen to Arizona for Chisholm because they were flush with good young pitching and extremely light on up-the-middle position players with high ceilings, and Chisholm's upside remains quite high. He has plus raw power, but his approach still needs a lot of work. His sprint speed was in the 81st percentile, so he is not a true burner, but is fast enough to steal 15-plus bases. Chisholm is an aggressive hitter who is overly pull happy. He typically gets to a level, struggles, and then makes the necessary adjustments. It is a testament to his hard work at the alternate site that he debuted at all despite never playing above Double-A. He will compete for time at second base and shortstop in the coming years.

Every non-prospector who has seen Zac Gallen and only seen Chisholm's stat line thinks that 1-for-1 was a bad trade for Miami. It certainly will look that way in the short term, but the Marlins had a lot of pitching being wasted on a non-contender and severely lacked star power on the position player side. Chisholm gives them a shot at that. An above-average runner with elite bat speed who will stick at shortstop, Chisholm has physical gifts that can't be taught. He rediscovered his linedrive stroke (28.6 LD%) and cut his strikeout rate from 33.8% to 25.5% after the trade, but had already started improving before the deal -- he just had an abysmal first seven weeks at Double-A. In a down year, he hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases as a 21-year-old playing a premium position. There may be another adjustment period at Triple-A, but Chisholm has Trevor Story-esque tools, so patience is recommended.

Bursting with tools, most notably 60-grade power, Chisholm emerged as one of the game's top shortstop prospects. A torn meniscus limited him to 29 games in 2017, but he still reached High-A before most of his peers -- only 21 of his 501 PA in 2018 came against pitchers who were younger than him. Aspects of his profile are worrisome -- he struck out a lot (29.7 K%), struggled against lefties (.218/.258/.412) and the one time he hit over .300 as a pro (at High-A), his BABIP was .443. However, he logged a 33.3 GB% while using the whole field (41.8 Pull%) with Visalia. That batted-ball profile suggests his batting average gains may be legitimate. Good instincts and quick-twitch athleticism led to a 17-for-21 stolen-base success rate. He capped his breakout campaign by hitting .442 with three homers, seven steals and eight strikeouts in 10 AFL games. Chisholm could begin his age-21 season at Double-A and has significant upward mobility.

Heading into 2017, Chisholm (who will turn 19 in February) is considered the top prospect in a depleted Arizona farm system. The lanky shortstop from the Bahamas spent last season playing at the rookie level for the Missoula Osprey. He recorded 249 at-bats in 62 games, posting a solid .281/.333/.446 slash line in the process. Chisholm showed a good mix of power (nine home runs) and speed (13 steals in 17 attempts), which was especially impressive considering he was one of the younger players in the Pioneer League. Scouts say Chisholm could stick at shortstop, but he also could add some bulk to his 165-pound frame and move off the position. As with any teenage prospect, it's hard to really say what the future holds for Chisholm. Across baseball, he's not considered an elite prospect at this point, but given the lack of depth in Arizona's system, Chisholm could be a name to watch if he continues to perform at a high level.