Jeff Hoffman

Hoffman got his fair share of opportunities in 2019 as the Rockies rotated through potential rotation options, but he certainly didn't make the most of them. In 15 major-league starts, he struggled to a 6.56 ERA, a number that doesn't play anywhere, even in Coors Field. His 21.6% strikeout rate was his career best but still came in below average, and both his 10.8% walk rate and 35.1% groundball rate were fairly poor. He didn't show much promise for Triple-A Albuquerque, either, posting a 7.70 ERA, though his 24.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate there were both fairly good. Still, a pitcher heading into his age-27 season with a career 6.11 ERA in 209.1 big-league innings doesn't do much to interest fantasy owners, even if he did at one point have a fair amount of prospect hype. On another team, he could perhaps have deep-league viability, but he hasn't come close to showing he can overcome Coors Field.

Hoffman is a dangerous pitcher to watch. When you watch him pitch on a good day, you see quite a bit of potential in him. His fastball moves, his curveball really bites and he attacks hitters. Yet, when you dive into his numbers, there is not a lot to like. Sure, he has a league average strikeout rate when pitching on the road, but he also has a 4.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in those games. Predictably, he is awful at home with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Keep in mind, all of this is with just 131 innings of work with the Rockies so things could go in any direction from here. His overall 5.89 ERA was bad, but his FIP at 4.80 shows he could be better and thus worthy of a roster spot in deeper NL-only leagues. He struck out six or more batters in six of his 17 starts last year.

Hoffman was the prize piece in the 2015 trade deadline deal that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, although his first season in Colorado's system didn't necessarily reflect that. The top prospect's strikeout rate drastically improved during his time with Triple-A Albuquerque (9.4 K/9) and while his 4.02 ERA and 1.36 WHIP may seem pedestrian for a 23-year-old with his pedigree, the harsh pitching conditions of the Pacific Coast League were largely to blame. His control was worse than usual (3.4 BB/9 at Triple-A), but he may have been nibbling in an effort to cope with his surroundings. The Rockies used him initially as a starter, but he was moved to the bullpen after he experienced some issues adjusting to big league hitters. He should spend much of 2017 in the Rockies' rotation, although the Coors Field effect will limit his upside in his first full season.

No prospect’s dynasty league stock plummet simply because of a deadline deal the way Hoffman’s value cratered following a trade from Toronto to Colorado in the Troy Tulowitzki deal. He might be a top-50 prospect in any other system, but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that he is on track to pitch half his games in Coors Field once he reaches the majors. Last year, Hoffman was still working on regaining his pre-surgery form, but it would not be surprising for the hard-throwing righty to put up obscene numbers in 2016, two years removed from Tommy John surgery. He has a plus-plus fastball with a plus curveball, average changeup and excellent command, so minor-league hitters won’t stand much of a chance against his advanced repertoire. Still, the shadow of Coors Field will linger in the background of his profile, so selling high based on great minor league numbers will prove tricky.

Prior to having Tommy John surgery a month before the 2014 draft, Hoffman was projected to be a top-five pick. His projectable 6-foot-4, 185-pound frame and 97-mph fastball made the 22-year old an intriguing arm coming out of college. Hoffman did not slide far in the draft, as the Blue Jays nabbed him with the ninth pick. However, he may be the forgotten man from the 2014 class, as he will likely spend the first two months of the season rehabbing his arm. While he has an impressive four-pitch arsenal, command was the primary concern prior to his surgery, so being able to locate his pitches will be a major point of emphasis for Hoffman when he starts pitching in a rookie league this summer. Despite the delay in development, Hoffman has the arsenal, and the college experience to still beat most of the high school pitchers from his draft class to the big leagues in three or four years.