Jesus Aguilar

32-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Oakland Athletics

2022 Stats

AVG

.235

RBI

2023 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Aguilar's fantasy value was heavily dependent upon his RBI opportunities, which were aplenty in 2021 when he had the tablesetters in front of him in the lineup. They were not on the roster or hurt in 2022, and thus Aguilar's RBI opportunities evaporated like an ice cube on South Beach in July. His RBI production nearly fell by half in the same amount of plate appearances as he struggled to reproduce his value last season before things got even worse after he was dealt to Baltimore. Yearly splits are a noisy indicator, and Aguilar's wRC+ against lefties shows that with his 128, 145, 86, 158, 114, and 57 scores in recent seasons. He has been league average against righties in that time, but his overall value tanks as he struggles against lefties. Aguilar saw everything crater last season as his StatCast profile went from mostly red to all blue in a hurry with no metric above the 50th percentile. He could end up signing on in a DH platoon situation to start if a club is looking for a rebound, but until he shows signs of life, he can be avoided until late reserve rounds. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

#535

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'3"

Weight 277

DOB 6/30/1990

Born Maracay, Venezuela

College None

Drafted 2007 CLE

Solid spring results at plate

1BOakland Athletics

March 17, 2023

Aguilar is hitting .261 (6-for-23) with two doubles, six RBI, five walks, a hit-by-pitch and three runs across 10 Cactus League games.

ANALYSIS
While he's yet to leave the yard, Aguilar has put forth a productive spring at the plate thus far and encouragingly struck out just twice in 28 plate appearances. Aguilar has never been able to re-ascend to the heights of his career-best 35-homer 2018 season with the Brewers, but he proved he still had some solid pop in his bat a year ago while belting 35 extra-base hits, including 16 round trippers, across 129 games with the Marlins and Orioles. Aguilar is slated to play on a near-everyday basis at either first base or designated hitter to open the 2023 campaign.

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Batting Stats

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2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+1%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+24%

OPS vs RHP

2021

+3%

OPS vs LHP

2020

+24%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.735	315	28	11	33	0	.245	.324	.412
Since 2020vs Right	.742	902	91	35	145	1	.256	.310	.432
2022vs Left	.558	122	7	3	9	0	.196	.254	.304
2022vs Right	.694	379	32	13	42	1	.247	.290	.403
2021vs Left	.805	134	11	5	19	0	.259	.358	.446
2021vs Right	.781	371	38	17	74	0	.261	.318	.463
2020vs Left	.956	59	10	3	5	0	.321	.390	.566
2020vs Right	.770	152	21	5	29	0	.267	.342	.427
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+20%

OPS on Road

2022

+3%

OPS at Home

2021

+30%

OPS on Road

2020

+51%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.669	583	48	12	74	1	.241	.304	.365
Since 2020Away	.802	639	71	34	104	0	.263	.322	.479
2022Home	.671	254	20	6	22	1	.247	.303	.368
2022Away	.650	247	19	10	29	0	.223	.259	.391
2021Home	.684	246	18	5	42	0	.242	.305	.379
2021Away	.886	259	31	17	51	0	.278	.351	.535
2020Home	.616	83	10	1	10	0	.219	.301	.315
2020Away	.931	133	21	7	24	0	.313	.383	.548
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Stat Review

How does Jesus Aguilar compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.24

BB Rate

5.6%

K Rate

23.8%

BABIP

.278

ISO

.144

AVG

.235

OBP

.281

SLG

.379

OPS

.661

wOBA

.290

Exit Velocity

87.7 mph

Hard Hit Rate

30.0%

Barrels/PA

4.7%

Expected BA

.240

Expected SLG

.393

Sprint Speed

19.3 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

30.9%

Line Drive %

24.0%

Fly Ball %

45.1%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Aguilar provided a wonderful reminder that RBI are more about opportunity than actual skill. If not for an early-September knee injury ending his season, Aguilar had a good chance of leading the NL in RBI for a bad Miami club. The big man has enjoyed a career resurgence since being acquired by Miami in 2019 and has been an above-average offensive player playing everyday for the Marlins. He is not an easy out and will accept his walks or put the ball into play when mistakes are made by the pitcher. The ballpark puts a cap on his overall homer numbers, and he'll miss Starling Marte setting the table in 2022, but Aguilar should otherwise continue to compile numbers with unquestioned playing time. He will have the extra motivation of playing for a new contract, and his future value improves should the Universal DH become permanent given his defensive limitations.

Aguilar's forgettable 2019 campaign, in which he hit just .236/.325/.389 with 12 homers, made his 2018 breakout look like a fluke, so he was very much an afterthought during draft season. Those who wound up with him anyway were quite pleased with the results, as he finished last season with eight homers in 51 games and a .277/.352/.457 slash line. He didn't come close to matching his .539 slugging percentage from 2018, though playing in Miami rather than Milwaukee was certainly a factor there. He actually didn't make any louder contact than he did during his poor 2019 campaign, with his exit velocity dropping negligibly from 89.4 mph to 89.3 mph, though he made more contact than ever before, cutting his strikeout rate for the third straight season down to 18.5%. If those gains hold, he should remain a perfectly playable lower-tier option at first base, especially if the Marlins remain competitive this year.

Aguilar took a big step back from his breakout power year in Milwaukee and found himself traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline, where he was stuck starting against lefties with the Rays riding the Ji-Man Choi Express against righties. He will have another opportunity to carve out significant playing time after the rebuilding Marlins claimed him off waivers, but he will still have to earn at-bats against righties. The quality of his contact suffered last year, and perhaps that was due to the inconsistent playing time, as that was not the case in Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018. One could be interested in going back to the well for Aguilar one more time given what he has done in recent history and the lack of quality fantasy depth at first base. It should be noted that Aguilar overperformed his expected stats in the seasons that give us hope, so that two-year run may end up representing his career peak.

It seemed Aguilar would struggle to see at-bats when the 2018 season kicked off, but when fellow first baseman Eric Thames injured his thumb he became the Brewers' regular first baseman and never looked back, holding down the job the rest of the way. Aguilar played so well in the first half he earned an All-Star berth and was on the fringes of the MVP conversation, but things nose-dived in the second half, and he posted just an average .760 OPS after the break. When it was all said and done, Aguilar still finished top-5 in the NL in both home runs and RBI. That will make Aguilar the top option at first base for the Brewers in 2019, and if he holds onto the job, expect him to again have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs with Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich both getting on base at a high clip atop the order.

An offseason waiver claim by the Brewers, Aguilar faced an uphill battle to make the Opening Day roster, but he earned the backup first base job thanks to a sizzling spring training. He kept hitting once the regular season began, and did so for much of the first half, tallying 24 extra-base hits to head into the All-Star break with a .911 OPS. He finished the year with 16 long balls in just 279 at-bats, but his luck on balls in play really dipped from .383 in the first half to .262 in the second half, resulting in a .289 OBP after the Midsummer Classic. Aguilar showed his power potential last year, but as a part-time player who only plays one position, he figures to face competition for his roster spot. Should he wind up in a situation where he sees regular at-bats, however, his power potential could make him a useful fantasy option in standard formats for that stretch of time.

For the second straight year, Aguilar's batting average at Triple-A Columbus tumbled, this time reaching a sub-.250 mark. Although his batting average and K-rate hovered around their recent marks of 10 and 20 percent, respectively, his BABIP slid from .305 to .255. However, his regression in terms of BABIP may be justified, as there was a part of Aguilar's game that took a tremendous step forward in 2016, that being power. Over 137 games, Aguilar knocked 30 home runs and 26 doubles, giving him a .472 slugging percentage. While this was a large improvement for the 26-year-old, Aguilar's chances of making it up to the majors for an extended stay with the Brewers in 2017 are likely dependent upon whether or not Eric Thames can hold onto an everyday role at first base. If Thames falters, the door may be open for Aguilar to an impact at first base as a below average hitter with a high ceiling in terms of power.

Aguilar spent most of 2015 at Triple-A Columbus, logging 131 games for the Clippers sandwiched around a couple of short stints with the Tribe. He didn't take the step forward that many in the organization were hoping for in his second extended look at Triple-A, slashing .267/.332/.439 with 29 doubles and 19 homers in 131 games versus a .304/.395/.511 line with 31 doubles and 19 homers in 118 games in 2014. His walk rate dipped to 8.2 percent, down from 12.8 percent in 2014, though his strikeout rate remained largely unchanged at 20.1 percent. He's locked into a 1B/DH role, a spot comfortably occupied by Carlos Santana (on a club-friendly deal for two more seasons) and offseason signee Mike Napoli. The Indians could keep Aguilar as organizational depth, or move him before he's tagged as a Quadruple-A player, although the word might already be out on that front.

Aguilar is a sizable right-handed first baseman whose bat will have to force him into a lineup because he’s never going to be confused as someone with a good glove. He has hit .276/.357/.453 throughout his minor league career including a lofty .304/.395/.511 line in Triple-A in 2014. The large righty may be penalized for his defense and being right-handed at a predominately left-handed position, but that should not make him a platoon guy. Aguilar has shown little in the way of platoon splits in the minors as his ability to hit for average and power was nearly identical versus lefties and righties. He's an interesting power speculation in deep AL-only leagues, but things became more crowded in Cleveland with the addition of Brandon Moss in December.

Aguilar continues to climb through the upper levels of the minors, producing well enough in 2013 to earn a 40-man roster spot and subsequent protection from the Rule 5 draft. After a solid, albeit unspectacular, campaign at Double-A Akron as a 23-year-old last season, Aguilar piled up a .306/.364/.556 line with 12 homers, 35 RBI and a 15:20 BB:K over 160 at-bats during a 40-game stretch in the Venezuelan Winter League. In addition to showing more desirable production at the plate for a corner infielder, Aguilar was given time at third base during the winter due to injuries on his offseason club. It remains to be seen if the Indians will continue giving him time at third base to push Lonnie Chisenhall, but it's worth keeping an eye on how he's deployed during spring training to see if a move across the diamond materializes.

Aguilar still hasn't flashed the power potential you might expect from a guy his size (6-foot-3, 255), but he'll get some extra attention in an organization lacking in power prospects. He'll have to hit to contribute, however, as he's a mess defensively, and it remains to be seen how he'll adjust as he moves up the minor league ranks. His swing is exploitable at times, and he's only seen limited time at Double-A thus far. It's a crucial year for his development to see if he can begin to translate his physical abilities into performance on the field.

More Fantasy News

Expected to play every day

1BOakland Athletics

January 27, 2023

Aguilar is expected to receive everyday playing time between first base and designated hitter, Athletics general manager David Forst told Martin Gallegos of MLB.com on Friday.

ANALYSIS
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