Joey Gallo

Gallo was essentially run out of New York last season as a result of posting a .621 OPS and a massive 38.8 percent strikeout rate over 82 games with the Yankees. A move to Los Angeles provided a less stressful environment for the slugger, but the results weren't much better, as Gallo's OPS ticked up to a still-poor .671 and his strikeout rate was even more atrocious at 41.6 percent. A glance at the slugger's muscular frame helps explain why teams can be drawn in by his power, and Gallo did manage to slug 19 homers last season despite his massive struggles. That said, he's failed to hit above the Mendoza line in each of his past three campaigns and is extremely unlikely to turn around his career-long issues making contact, though he was still able to nab a one-year, $11 million contract from the Twins. Perhaps the new MLB rules banning the shift will help perk up Gallo's numbers, and it bears remembering that he blasted 38 bombs with a barrel rate in the 98th percentile just two years ago. He's going to go cheap in 2023 fantasy drafts, so just keep him in mind if you've built a squad that can stomach exchanging the batting-average drain for his power potential.

Depending on the format, Gallo ranges from completely useless in fantasy baseball (roto leagues scoring batting average or leagues counting strikeouts) to bonafide stud (roto leagues scoring OBP). Gallo is a three-true-outcomes player. Last season, he led the league with 59% of his plate appearances ending with a strikeout, walk or home run. He has been this same player since being promoted to the majors back in 2015. This past season he had his largest split between his average and on-base percentage at 151 points. The BA could be a killer in a roto league. While 40 homers are on the table every season, he only provides a half dozen steals or so at best. The power will eventually deteriorate, though nothing currently in his profile points to the home runs going away.

A skill set like Gallo's lends itself to extremes in small samples. We saw that in 2020 as Gallo struggled to a .181/.301/.378 line in 226 PA. He managed a career-high .253 BA in 2019 despite a 38.4 K%, but all those whiffs caught up to him as his BABIP returned to Earth. At this point, you can put a high-30s strikeout rate in ink with Gallo, and a low-.200s average should be considered the baseline expectation. The new Globe Life Field was not kind to Gallo, although he was even worse on the road. Gallo still managed to reach double-digit homers and we know he can take his walks, making him more palatable in OBP leagues. He also graded out well in right field last season. In roto leagues scoring batting average, Gallo is a risk to single-handedly sink you in the category, negating the appeal of his power to a significant extent. That's certainly not to say he's undraftable in those formats.

At the time of his placement on the IL with a sore oblique June 2, Gallo was slashing .276/.421/.653. He was activated June 25 but returned to the IL on July 25 after hurting his wrist while swinging. Tests showed Gallo broke his hamate bone, requiring season-ending surgery. Gallo ended the year at .253/.389/.582, setting personal bests across the board. It was only 90 plate appearances, but the lefty slugger was crushing southpaws, slashing .333/.427/.747. The catch is he was fanning at a 38% clip against left-handers, essentially his career pace. The spike was due to an unsustainable .500 BABIP. Still, it's a shame his season ended prematurely. Gallo will be 100% heading into 2020 with a chance to league the league in homers as his exit velocity and barrel rate are off the charts. Just beware his average is likely to drop as his numbers against same-side pitching revert to normal.

The lazy comp would be to call Gallo a modern-day Adam Dunn. However, Dunn was not hitting in the low .200s until the final seasons of his career while it is all Gallo has known in nearly 1,300 plate appearances at the big-league level. Gallo is athletic for his size and is definitely filling the rest of his three-true-outcome shoes. Gallo has hit 40-plus homers and generated at least 165 runs-plus-RBI in consecutive seasons, but he has really hurt in batting-average leagues with a batting average 45 points below the league average. He walks enough (13.4 career BB%) to be more valuable in OBP leagues, although his .317 career OBP is still a below-average mark. We roster him because the power is prodigious and it is 35 homers and 150 runs of production in the bank. There will likely be the occasional year where lucks his way to a .225 average, but bank on something closer to .200 when formulating a plan to offset his one big negative.

Gallo had a regular role with the Rangers in 2017, seeing time at both corner-infield spots and getting extra run at third base when Adrian Beltre was on the DL. With a combination of plus-plus raw power, an eye to draw walks, and swing-and-miss tendencies that are currently the most extreme in MLB, Gallo is the ultimate Three True Outcomes player. When he connects, he does a lot of damage, as evidenced by his 41-homer campaign as a 23-year-old last season. It's possible that he'll make adjustments and improve his strikeout rate over time, as he cut his K% from 38.5 in the first half to 34.9 percent in the second half. Moreover, Gallo posted similar numbers against lefties and righties, offering hope that he will avoid falling into the large side of a platoon. Unlike most of the TTO players that have preceded him, Gallo has the athleticism to steal bases (7-for-9) and play ample defense, and if he can continue to whittle away at his strikeout rate, a 50-homer season might be within reach.

During his first stint with the major league club in 2015, Gallo showed his trademark power but his contact issues were badly exposed. He saw only 25 at-bats with Texas in 2016 despite a 25-homer season with Triple-A Round Rock. The Rangers have a deep big-league lineup that may keep Gallo largely out of the picture again in 2017 barring an injury or two. Not all hope is lost by any means, as Gallo has been able to maintain a high walk rate which helps mitigate the swing and miss. With incredible raw power, Gallo easily boasts 30-homer potential if ever given a significant window to contribute. He's probably not worth a significant investment in most single-season drafts and auctions, but he has appeal as a reserve-round lotto ticket in mixed leagues.

Gallo got a taste of the big leagues in 2015 and fell flat on his face due to intense swing-and-miss issues. Like Javier Baez last season, Gallo was rushed so that he could fail. Players need to experience failure in order to change, and Gallo hit nine homers with a 1.061 OPS in 34 games at Double-A Frisco prior to his promotion, so he certainly wasn’t going to experience that failure against Texas League pitching. After posting a 46.3% strikeout rate with six homers in 36 games with the Rangers, he was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock, where his contact issues persisted. He hit 14 homers, but also had a 39.5% strikeout rate in 53 games in the Pacific Coast League, so there is reason to be cautious heading into 2016. While Gallo legitimately has more raw power than any player in the American League, it is unclear what big league role he will play this season, or if he will ever make enough contact to maximize his power potential.

Of the 7.1 billion people walking this planet, Giancarlo Stanton may be the only one who can match Gallo’s raw power. He is the prototypical left-handed power bat. Gallo’s body mass is ideally proportional to his 6-foot-5 height, if the end goal is a person who destroys baseballs with ease. However, it was considered a long shot heading into 2014 that the 20-year-old third baseman (who might end up in right field) would ever get that power to fully show in games against more advanced pitching, as his hit tool was considered highly questionable. At High-A Myrtle Beach, he tabled those concerns, slashing .323/.463/.735 with 21 home runs and a completely acceptable 26.0% strikeout rate. Unfortunately after his promotion to Double-A Frisco, he fueled his doubters, hitting another 21 home runs, but mixing in a 39.5% strikeout rate and a .183 batting average against lefties. Gallo’s story has yet to be written. If he can once again make adjustments in the offseason, he could be terrorizing major league pitchers by late 2015.

Gallo's name was all over the prospect radar after his short-season debut in 2012, following his selection in the first round of the draft that June, but the shine has faded a bit after the 2013 campaign. Yes, the power is very much legit (40 homers), but there's considerable debate as to whether the approach at the plate (172 strikeouts against Low-A pitching) will work against advanced pitching. He could end up like Russell Branyan or Adam Dunn, and anywhere in between. Believed to be previously untouchable in trade talks, rumors persist that he's a player Texas is willing to dangle to acquire a known major league talent.

Gallo was a sandwich pick in the June draft, with scouts in agreement that he possessed the best raw power of any hitter in the draft class. Gallo assaulted rookie league pitching in his pro debut, swatting 18 homers and drawing 37 walks in 150 at-bats and resulting in a .293/.435/.733 slash that also included six steals in as many attempts. He struggled a bit in a brief appearance for Low-A Spokane, but he had one of the more promising debuts of the June draftees and should be all over the radar for those in keeper leagues.