Jose Berrios

29-Year-Old PitcherSP

Toronto Blue Jays

2023 Stats

W-L

4-4

ERA

4.22

WHIP

1.22

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Considering Berrios was a top-75 pick in most leagues, he goes down as one of the biggest busts of the season. Few predicted a sizable step forward, but even fewer predicted the kind of collapse we saw as Berrios had the worst ERA and WHIP among qualified starters. Despite that, he still had a winning record at 12-7 which speaks to the talent around him in Toronto. The right-hander's strikeout rate plummeted as he allowed a ton of contact in the zone, and while the estimators suggest he was a little unlucky on account of a high BABIP, Berrios mostly deserved his batted-ball luck. His HardHit% and xwOBACON marks ranked in the bottom 15% of the league, per Statcast, not to mention he allowed 29 homers (fourth most in MLB). After his first partial season with the team in 2021, the Blue Jays bet big on Berrios in the form of a seven-year, $131 million contract extension. They will give him a long leash to get back to the form he showed over the five seasons prior to 2022. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#239

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'0"

Weight 205

DOB 5/27/1994

Born Bayamon, Puerto Rico

College None

Drafted 2012 MIN

Stymies Tampa Bay

PToronto Blue Jays

May 23, 2023

Berrios (4-4) earned the win Tuesday, allowing one run on five hits and two walks over seven innings against Tampa Bay. He struck out five.

ANALYSIS
Berrios certainly got enough run support in Toronto's 20-1 victory. However, the 28-year-old right-hander was impressive as well, pitching through seven innings for the third time this season. Berrios has been solid of late, allowing eight runs over his last four outings (25.1 innings). Tuesday's performance lowered his ERA to 4.22 with a 1.28 WHIP and 57:14 K:BB through 59.2 innings this season.

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Pitching Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Jose Berrios generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Jose Berrios generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-17%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-22%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-7%

BAA vs RHP

2021

-24%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2021vs Left	.279	896	200	58	229	50	5	39
Since 2021vs Right	.231	885	210	46	188	37	0	19
2023vs Left	.289	120	26	6	33	9	1	4
2023vs Right	.224	127	31	8	26	4	0	3
2022vs Left	.298	397	68	24	108	16	1	20
2022vs Right	.276	356	81	21	91	18	0	9
2021vs Left	.254	379	106	28	88	25	3	15
2021vs Right	.193	402	98	17	71	15	0	7
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-31%

ERA at Home

2023

-60%

ERA at Home

2022

-33%

ERA at Home

2021

-14%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2021Home	3.56	1.13	220.0	16	8	0	9.5	2.0	1.0
Since 2021Away	5.13	1.34	203.2	12	12	0	7.9	2.4	1.5
2023Home	2.22	1.03	24.1	2	1	0	9.6	1.8	0.7
2023Away	5.60	1.36	35.1	2	3	0	7.9	2.3	1.3
2022Home	4.24	1.32	91.1	7	2	0	8.8	2.3	1.1
2022Away	6.36	1.52	80.2	5	5	0	6.7	2.5	2.0
2021Home	3.28	0.98	104.1	7	5	0	10.1	1.8	0.9
2021Away	3.80	1.16	87.2	5	4	0	8.9	2.5	1.1
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Stat Review

How does Jose Berrios compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

4.07

K/9

8.6

BB/9

2.1

HR/9

1.1

Fastball

93.8 mph

ERA

4.22

WHIP

1.22

BABIP

.319

GB/FB

1.67

Left On Base

68.0%

Exit Velocity

82.2 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.8%

Spin Rate

2081 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

21.7%

Swinging Strike

11.1%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

While it may not have been the breakthrough season some expected, Berrios did not disappoint. He added a tick to his K% while walking a career low 5.8%, resulting in a personal best 20.4% K-BB%. Berrios amassed 192 innings, tied for sixth most in MLB. In fact, his 108 games started since 2018 is tied for second highest in the league. The righty maintained the velocity gained in 2020, boding well for sustaining an elevated K%. Berrios was acquired by the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, and he impressed enough to rewarded with a seven-year deal. Berrios doesn't have the flashy allure of other starting pitchers, but durability and reliability are fantasy assets. There likely isn't another level, and a full season in the AL East could put a dent in his numbers, but Berrios should be able to withstand the heat and post low-level ace numbers.

Berrios had a similar season at the top of Minnesota's rotation to his two prior All-Star years with some skills growth. Berrios increased his average fastball velocity to a career-high 94.3 mph and a career-high 9.7 K/9. His gains were somewhat offset by a 3.7 BB/9, his worst rate since his struggles in his rookie season. In the opposite of his two prior seasons, he started slow (5.92 ERA over his first five starts) and finished strong (2.79 ERA over his final seven starts). Berrios is able to keep hitters off balance with an excellent curve ball that helped him generate a swinging strike rate of 11.6%, which was 20th in MLB among qualified pitchers. If he can keep the walks in check and avoid any prolonged slumps, he and Kenta Maeda will form a strong 1-2 at the top of the Minnesota rotation.

Berrios had a career-best 3.68 ERA and made his second consecutive All-Star team, but faded in the second half for a second consecutive season. Berrios had a 3.00 ERA before the All-Star break, and 4.64 ERA in the second half. He had a 5.83 ERA over his last eight starts with a 1.55 HR/9 and appeared on fumes heading into the playoffs. His late-season fade belies his durability, as he topped 200 innings for the first time (15th in IP) and has never spent time on the injured list. While his strikeout rate declined slightly (from 25.4% to 23.2%) he improved his groundball (careeer-best 42.1%) and walk rates (career-best 6.1%). He also improved on the road after struggling away from home earlier in his career. Berrios looks set to remain a steady presence at the top of the Minnesota rotation and could take a leap forward if he can avoid another late-season decline.

Berrios became an All-Star in his second full season and enters 2019 as Minnesota's unquestioned ace. He boosted his K/9 from 8.6 to 9.5 while maintaining roughly league-average walk (2.8 BB/9) and groundball rates (41.5%). Unfortunately his strikeout gains were offset by a spike in HR/FB rate (9.1% to 12.8%), so his WHIP (1.14) moved into a top-20 range, while his ERA (3.84) ranked 32nd among qualified starters. In addition to limiting baserunners and missing bats, Berrios stood out for his durability, ranking 18th in MLB with 192.1 innings while logging seven-plus innings in 13 starts. He did appear to run out of gas late in the season with a 4.56 ERA and 4.7 BB/9 over the last two months, but still had a 10.1 K/9 over that stretch. Berrios has also had a troubling home-away split in his career, with a 4.85 road ERA last season. With good health, the 24-year-old righty should repeat his 2018 and with good luck and/or skills growth, he could surpass it.

Those who held firm in the belief that Berrios was the pitcher we saw in the minors and not the pitcher we saw in the majors in 2016 were handsomely rewarded last season. Berrios struggled so mightily in his big-league debut (8.02 ERA, 5.4 BB/9) it put into question his minor-league success, high pedigree (No. 32 overall pick in 2012) and prominent placement on prospect rankings from 2014 to 2016. He put those concerns to rest once called up to the majors in May by vastly reducing his walks (3.0 BB/9) while maintaining a solid strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) thanks largely to a 94 mph sinker with excellent late movement. He also heavily utilizes his four-seam fastball and hard 82 mph curveball, while occasionally mixing in a changeup, which is clearly his worst pitch. He'll need to improve his performance on the road (5.17 ERA and 12 homers allowed in 15 away starts), but otherwise looks set to take the mantle as Minnesota's ace at age 23.

Berrios entered last year as Minnesota's top pitching prospect, but his first tour of the majors went so poorly it raised questions about his viability to make an impact with the Twins. Berrios began the season at Triple-A and was spectacular at Rochester with a 2.51 ERA and 10.1 K/9 along with the good control he displayed in minors (2.9 BB/9). It was a different story in the majors, as he was hit hard across three stints. Berrios had an 8.02 ERA, gave up 12 home runs in 14 starts and was uncharacteristically wild with a 5.4 BB/9. Successful major league pitchers frequently struggle in their first trip to the majors, but few performed as poorly as Berrios. He did have a respectable 7.5 K/9 and 93.3 mph average fastball in the majors and earned a win with a decent final start (one earned run in five innings). He'll likely need to regroup at Triple-A at the start of the season before he gets another chance in the majors.

Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, is Minnesota's top pitching prospect and could win a spot in the starting rotation this spring. He began last season at Double-A Chattanooga and was dominant with a 3.08 ERA and 9.2 K/9. He then was even better after being promoted to Triple-A with a 2.62 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Minnesota decided not to call him up in September over concerns about his workload. People once questioned his upside given his smaller frame (6-feet, 187 pounds), but he's put most of those issues to rest after dominating at the higher levels of the minors. It's possible the Twins could keep Berrios at Triple-A for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control, but he has proven all he can in the minors, and should be a mainstay in the Twins' rotation at some point in the early going.

Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, jumped three levels in 2014 and has staked his claim to be considered Minnesota's top pitching prospect. He began the season at High-A, but was promoted to Double-A in July after going 9-3 with a 1.96 ERA and 109:23 K:BB ratio in 96.1 innings. His numbers were not as impressive at Double-A as he had a 3.54 ERA and just a 6.2 K/9, but he held his own as a younger player age 20 at the level. Berrios then made one appearance in September at Triple-A. He has a mid-90s fastball and showed strong strikeout rates before Double-A (10.2 K/9 at High-A) with good control. While some analysts question his upside given his smaller frame (6-feet, 187 pounds), he's also seen as athletic with strong secondary pitches. Berrios will likely begin the season at Double-A, but a strong first few months could push him to the majors by the end of the summer.

Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, was impressive in his first full season as a professional. He had a 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 100:40 K:BB ratio with Low-A Cedar Rapids at just 19 years old. He did give up 10 runs in 10 innings in his final two starts, after missing time with a right elbow contusion, but he's expected to be fully healthy by spring training. The high school draft pick out of Puerto Rico is not huge at 6-0, 190, but he's able to hit the mid-90s with his fastball and is seen as athletic. A strong season at High-A could put him in position to join the Minnesota rotation in 2015.

Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, had an impressive professional debut as he had a 1.17 ERA and 49:4 K:BB in 30.2 innings between two levels of rookie ball. The high school draft pick out of Puerto Rico is not huge at six-feet and 190 pounds, but he is able to hit the mid-90s with his fastball and is seen as athletic. He could quickly rise to among Minnesota's top pitching prospects with a strong showing in his first full season.

More Fantasy News

Fans eight in quality start

PToronto Blue Jays

May 19, 2023

Berrios (3-4) took the loss Thursday against the Yankees, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk over 6.2 innings. He struck out eight.