Jose Berrios

30-Year-Old PitcherSP

Toronto Blue Jays

2024 Stats

W-L

16-11

ERA

3.60

WHIP

1.15

153

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Berrios had us worried for awhile, but he ended up with a rather valuable fantasy season considering his surrounding circumstances. Berrios won 50 percent of his starts, which is outstanding considering he played for a last place team which won 74 games all season. He began the season with a phenomenal April in which he won four of his first seven starts never allowing more than two earned runs in any of them. He came back to Earth against Philadelphia where he allowed eight earned runs and then went on to have a rough close to the first half which saw him allow 11 homers over his last 8 starts before the break. Berriors sliced more than a full run off his 4.01 first half ERA by stepping up his strikeout rate nearly five full percentage points and ceased hitting batters as 12 of the 13 batters he hit in 2024 came before the break. The 30+ homers on the season predestined him to a higher ERA as only Robbie Ray has pitched to an ERA below 3.50 despite allowing 30 or more homers in recent seasons. Berrios is no longer the strikeout guy he was in his earlier years, but he is fifth in innings worked since 2021 trailing only Nola, Webb, Wheeler, and Burnes. We would be asking a lot of Berrios to go out and win another 50% of his starts for a team that is likely going to be a non-contender once again, but he hasn't missed a start in eons and you just cannot buy that type of volume these days. If you take some pitching upside risks early in the draft, Berrios is an excellent volume play to help offset the earlier risks. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

#232

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'0"

Weight 205

DOB 5/27/1994

Born Bayamon, Puerto Rico

College None

Drafted 2012 MIN

Knocked around by Marlins

PToronto Blue Jays

September 28, 2024

Berrios (16-11) allowed six runs on six hits and three walks over three innings Friday, striking out four and taking a loss against Miami.

ANALYSIS
Berrios never found his footing and was chased early. He coughed up three runs in the first inning and two more in the second. His wild pitch in the third inning allowed a sixth run to score before he left the contest. Berrios had allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight straight starts before Friday's hiccup. Despite the poor outing, he posted a strong 2.95 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break. Overall, he finished his 2024 campaign with a 3.60 ERA and a 153:54 K:BB through 192.1 innings.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Jose Berrios generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Jose Berrios generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-2%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-17%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-16%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-7%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.257	1222	250	91	285	43	7	54
Since 2022vs Right	.251	1098	236	60	255	45	0	31
2024vs Left	.214	419	85	36	80	9	4	18
2024vs Right	.259	367	68	18	88	12	0	13
2023vs Left	.261	406	97	31	97	18	2	16
2023vs Right	.220	375	87	21	76	15	0	9
2022vs Left	.298	397	68	24	108	16	1	20
2022vs Right	.276	356	81	21	91	18	0	9
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-24%

ERA at Home

2024

-21%

ERA at Home

2023

-17%

ERA at Home

2022

-33%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.57	1.20	274.2	23	11	0	8.3	2.4	1.1
Since 2022Away	4.67	1.30	279.1	16	19	0	7.5	2.5	1.7
2024Home	3.18	1.10	93.1	10	3	0	6.9	2.7	1.0
2024Away	4.00	1.20	99.0	6	8	0	7.4	2.4	1.9
2023Home	3.30	1.17	90.0	6	6	0	9.3	2.3	1.2
2023Away	3.97	1.20	99.2	5	6	0	8.2	2.6	1.2
2022Home	4.24	1.32	91.1	7	2	0	8.8	2.3	1.1
2022Away	6.36	1.52	80.2	5	5	0	6.7	2.5	2.0
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Stat Review

How does Jose Berrios compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.83

K/9

7.2

BB/9

2.5

HR/9

1.5

Fastball

93.7 mph

ERA

3.60

WHIP

1.15

BABIP

.260

GB/FB

1.39

Left On Base

80.1%

Exit Velocity

83.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.8%

Spin Rate

2061 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

27.5%

Swinging Strike

9.1%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Berrios put together an impressive bounce-back campaign, shaving more than a run and a half off his ERA after he finished with the worst ERA among qualified starters in 2022. He bumped his strikeout rate back up to 23.5% -- modest, but a big improvement on the previous year and much more in line with his career norms. Berrios offers up four pitches to opposing hitters -- sinker, slurve, four-seamer, changeup -- and he's willing to challenge within the zone even if he doesn't win every battle. It was nice to see that his struggles in 2022 didn't affect his confidence too much, as his walk rate remained low at 6.6%. We've seen what the downside looks like with Berrios, but he has eight years of starting experience at this point and his track record is that of a viable mid-rotation starter. There may still be a buy-low window in fantasy as the memory of his disastrous 2022 lingers.

Considering Berrios was a top-75 pick in most leagues, he goes down as one of the biggest busts of the season. Few predicted a sizable step forward, but even fewer predicted the kind of collapse we saw as Berrios had the worst ERA and WHIP among qualified starters. Despite that, he still had a winning record at 12-7 which speaks to the talent around him in Toronto. The right-hander's strikeout rate plummeted as he allowed a ton of contact in the zone, and while the estimators suggest he was a little unlucky on account of a high BABIP, Berrios mostly deserved his batted-ball luck. His HardHit% and xwOBACON marks ranked in the bottom 15% of the league, per Statcast, not to mention he allowed 29 homers (fourth most in MLB). After his first partial season with the team in 2021, the Blue Jays bet big on Berrios in the form of a seven-year, $131 million contract extension. They will give him a long leash to get back to the form he showed over the five seasons prior to 2022.

While it may not have been the breakthrough season some expected, Berrios did not disappoint. He added a tick to his K% while walking a career low 5.8%, resulting in a personal best 20.4% K-BB%. Berrios amassed 192 innings, tied for sixth most in MLB. In fact, his 108 games started since 2018 is tied for second highest in the league. The righty maintained the velocity gained in 2020, boding well for sustaining an elevated K%. Berrios was acquired by the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, and he impressed enough to rewarded with a seven-year deal. Berrios doesn't have the flashy allure of other starting pitchers, but durability and reliability are fantasy assets. There likely isn't another level, and a full season in the AL East could put a dent in his numbers, but Berrios should be able to withstand the heat and post low-level ace numbers.

Berrios had a similar season at the top of Minnesota's rotation to his two prior All-Star years with some skills growth. Berrios increased his average fastball velocity to a career-high 94.3 mph and a career-high 9.7 K/9. His gains were somewhat offset by a 3.7 BB/9, his worst rate since his struggles in his rookie season. In the opposite of his two prior seasons, he started slow (5.92 ERA over his first five starts) and finished strong (2.79 ERA over his final seven starts). Berrios is able to keep hitters off balance with an excellent curve ball that helped him generate a swinging strike rate of 11.6%, which was 20th in MLB among qualified pitchers. If he can keep the walks in check and avoid any prolonged slumps, he and Kenta Maeda will form a strong 1-2 at the top of the Minnesota rotation.

Berrios had a career-best 3.68 ERA and made his second consecutive All-Star team, but faded in the second half for a second consecutive season. Berrios had a 3.00 ERA before the All-Star break, and 4.64 ERA in the second half. He had a 5.83 ERA over his last eight starts with a 1.55 HR/9 and appeared on fumes heading into the playoffs. His late-season fade belies his durability, as he topped 200 innings for the first time (15th in IP) and has never spent time on the injured list. While his strikeout rate declined slightly (from 25.4% to 23.2%) he improved his groundball (careeer-best 42.1%) and walk rates (career-best 6.1%). He also improved on the road after struggling away from home earlier in his career. Berrios looks set to remain a steady presence at the top of the Minnesota rotation and could take a leap forward if he can avoid another late-season decline.

Berrios became an All-Star in his second full season and enters 2019 as Minnesota's unquestioned ace. He boosted his K/9 from 8.6 to 9.5 while maintaining roughly league-average walk (2.8 BB/9) and groundball rates (41.5%). Unfortunately his strikeout gains were offset by a spike in HR/FB rate (9.1% to 12.8%), so his WHIP (1.14) moved into a top-20 range, while his ERA (3.84) ranked 32nd among qualified starters. In addition to limiting baserunners and missing bats, Berrios stood out for his durability, ranking 18th in MLB with 192.1 innings while logging seven-plus innings in 13 starts. He did appear to run out of gas late in the season with a 4.56 ERA and 4.7 BB/9 over the last two months, but still had a 10.1 K/9 over that stretch. Berrios has also had a troubling home-away split in his career, with a 4.85 road ERA last season. With good health, the 24-year-old righty should repeat his 2018 and with good luck and/or skills growth, he could surpass it.

Those who held firm in the belief that Berrios was the pitcher we saw in the minors and not the pitcher we saw in the majors in 2016 were handsomely rewarded last season. Berrios struggled so mightily in his big-league debut (8.02 ERA, 5.4 BB/9) it put into question his minor-league success, high pedigree (No. 32 overall pick in 2012) and prominent placement on prospect rankings from 2014 to 2016. He put those concerns to rest once called up to the majors in May by vastly reducing his walks (3.0 BB/9) while maintaining a solid strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) thanks largely to a 94 mph sinker with excellent late movement. He also heavily utilizes his four-seam fastball and hard 82 mph curveball, while occasionally mixing in a changeup, which is clearly his worst pitch. He'll need to improve his performance on the road (5.17 ERA and 12 homers allowed in 15 away starts), but otherwise looks set to take the mantle as Minnesota's ace at age 23.

Berrios entered last year as Minnesota's top pitching prospect, but his first tour of the majors went so poorly it raised questions about his viability to make an impact with the Twins. Berrios began the season at Triple-A and was spectacular at Rochester with a 2.51 ERA and 10.1 K/9 along with the good control he displayed in minors (2.9 BB/9). It was a different story in the majors, as he was hit hard across three stints. Berrios had an 8.02 ERA, gave up 12 home runs in 14 starts and was uncharacteristically wild with a 5.4 BB/9. Successful major league pitchers frequently struggle in their first trip to the majors, but few performed as poorly as Berrios. He did have a respectable 7.5 K/9 and 93.3 mph average fastball in the majors and earned a win with a decent final start (one earned run in five innings). He'll likely need to regroup at Triple-A at the start of the season before he gets another chance in the majors.

Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, is Minnesota's top pitching prospect and could win a spot in the starting rotation this spring. He began last season at Double-A Chattanooga and was dominant with a 3.08 ERA and 9.2 K/9. He then was even better after being promoted to Triple-A with a 2.62 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Minnesota decided not to call him up in September over concerns about his workload. People once questioned his upside given his smaller frame (6-feet, 187 pounds), but he's put most of those issues to rest after dominating at the higher levels of the minors. It's possible the Twins could keep Berrios at Triple-A for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control, but he has proven all he can in the minors, and should be a mainstay in the Twins' rotation at some point in the early going.

Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, jumped three levels in 2014 and has staked his claim to be considered Minnesota's top pitching prospect. He began the season at High-A, but was promoted to Double-A in July after going 9-3 with a 1.96 ERA and 109:23 K:BB ratio in 96.1 innings. His numbers were not as impressive at Double-A as he had a 3.54 ERA and just a 6.2 K/9, but he held his own as a younger player age 20 at the level. Berrios then made one appearance in September at Triple-A. He has a mid-90s fastball and showed strong strikeout rates before Double-A (10.2 K/9 at High-A) with good control. While some analysts question his upside given his smaller frame (6-feet, 187 pounds), he's also seen as athletic with strong secondary pitches. Berrios will likely begin the season at Double-A, but a strong first few months could push him to the majors by the end of the summer.

Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, was impressive in his first full season as a professional. He had a 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 100:40 K:BB ratio with Low-A Cedar Rapids at just 19 years old. He did give up 10 runs in 10 innings in his final two starts, after missing time with a right elbow contusion, but he's expected to be fully healthy by spring training. The high school draft pick out of Puerto Rico is not huge at 6-0, 190, but he's able to hit the mid-90s with his fastball and is seen as athletic. A strong season at High-A could put him in position to join the Minnesota rotation in 2015.

Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, had an impressive professional debut as he had a 1.17 ERA and 49:4 K:BB in 30.2 innings between two levels of rookie ball. The high school draft pick out of Puerto Rico is not huge at six-feet and 190 pounds, but he is able to hit the mid-90s with his fastball and is seen as athletic. He could quickly rise to among Minnesota's top pitching prospects with a strong showing in his first full season.

More Fantasy News

Stuck with hard-luck loss

PToronto Blue Jays

September 21, 2024

Berrios (16-10) took the loss Friday against Tampa Bay, allowing one run on six hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out six.