Luis Castillo

32-Year-Old PitcherSP

Seattle Mariners

2024 Stats

W-L

11-12

ERA

3.64

WHIP

1.17

175

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Castillo, for all his abilities, has been rather inconsistent in recent seasons. He has made 30 or more starts in three of the past four seasons and in five of the last six full seasons, but he has just twice won 12 or more games and his ERA has had a 1.3 run variance. 2024 was not his best effort as a hamstring injury shut him down for good in mid September. 16 of his 25 home runs were of the solo shot variety, yet he still pitched to his his highest ERA of the past three seasons. The related issue was a decline in strikeouts as the 24.3% strikeout rate was three full percentage points down from his 2022 and 2023 efforts and his lowest since that troublesome 2021 season with Cincinatti. A look at the numbers show the changeup, once his signature pitch, was arguable his worst pitch. Castillo is now primarily a fastball and slider guy, and while the four-seamer and slider duo has served him well the past two seasons, he needs a third pitch to re-emerge as lefties were entirely too comfortable against him in 2024. This is not the making of a fantasy ace. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 200

DOB 12/12/1992

Born Bani, DR

College None

Drafted 2011 SF

Not ready for Houston series

PSeattle Mariners

Hamstring

September 22, 2024

Castillo (hamstring) is making good progress and has thrown off a mound, but he's not expected to return from the 15-day injured list for the Mariners' three-game series in Houston that begins Monday, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Seattle has confirmed Bryce Miller as its starter for Monday's series opener in Houston, and Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are considered "most likely" to go Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. That means Castillo likely won't return from the IL when first eligible, but he's still very much in the mix to make a final regular-season start against Oakland later in the week. Castillo currently sits with a 3.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 175.1 innings this season.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Luis Castillo generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Luis Castillo generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-13%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-25%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-10%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-5%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.238	1079	261	88	231	52	3	46
Since 2022vs Right	.208	1057	300	60	205	48	4	20
2024vs Left	.275	346	67	27	87	20	0	18
2024vs Right	.205	373	108	20	71	16	2	7
2023vs Left	.229	431	117	36	89	18	3	20
2023vs Right	.205	371	102	20	71	18	2	8
2022vs Left	.206	302	77	25	55	14	0	8
2022vs Right	.217	313	90	20	63	14	0	5
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-19%

ERA at Home

2024

-26%

ERA at Home

2023

-15%

ERA at Home

2022

-18%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.00	1.02	275.2	19	11	0	10.6	2.2	1.1
Since 2022Away	3.72	1.22	247.0	14	16	0	8.6	2.9	1.2
2024Home	3.15	1.08	97.0	7	5	0	9.9	1.7	1.1
2024Away	4.25	1.28	78.1	4	7	0	7.8	3.3	1.5
2023Home	3.09	1.00	105.0	8	5	0	11.1	2.6	1.3
2023Away	3.62	1.21	92.0	6	4	0	8.7	2.5	1.3
2022Home	2.69	0.98	73.2	4	1	0	10.6	2.4	0.9
2022Away	3.29	1.19	76.2	4	5	0	9.4	2.9	0.7
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Stat Review

How does Luis Castillo compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.72

K/9

9.0

BB/9

2.4

HR/9

1.3

Fastball

95.6 mph

ERA

3.64

WHIP

1.17

BABIP

.294

GB/FB

1.10

Left On Base

77.6%

Exit Velocity

82.8 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.1%

Spin Rate

2098 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

24.5%

Swinging Strike

12.4%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

The 31-year-old was acquired by the Mariners at the 2022 trade deadline and inked a five-year extension two months later; during his first full season with the team in 2023 he posted a 3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 219:56 K:BB in 197 innings. The campaign ended on a sour note, however, with nine runs allowed in Castillo's final two starts, including a 2.2-frame outing against Texas that eliminated Seattle from playoff contention. His strikeout and walk rates (27.3 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively) stayed stable, but his 1.3 HR/9 was the highest since his sophomore season in 2018. Castillo typically excelled at inducing groundballs while playing for the Reds with a career rate north of 50 percent, but he saw his flyball rate jump nearly nine points to 42.4 percent in 2023 while his groundball rate dipped below 40 percent. A barrel rate of 9.4 percent and hard-hit rate of 41.8 percent each represent career worsts, which also lines up with a 3.81 xFIP. Some regression may be in store for Castillo if he's unable to rein in those trends, but he's still likely a fairly safe bet for fantasy managers in 2024 given his track record.

Castillo was slowed by a sore shoulder in spring training, which in turn made him a great bargain in fantasy drafts. He made his 2022 debut May 9 and really got into a groove in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, posting a 1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 41:10 K:BB in what would turn out to be his final five starts for Cincinnati. The Mariners spent a pretty penny in prospect capital to acquire Castillo and the right-hander paid immediate dividends, helping the team to the ALDS. With Castillo, the name of the game is the world-class changeup, set up by a good fastball at 97 mph. The skills only got better after the move to Seattle and the park upgrade is massive. It will be exciting to see what Castillo can do at age 30 in his first full season with a legitimate contender.

Castillo was the worst starting pitcher in the majors through May, posting a 7.22 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over 52 innings. Over the final four months, he was a near ace, posting a 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 135.1 innings. Unfortunately, those first two months counted and wreaked havoc, and it's not the first time he has gotten off to a horrific start. It's been suggested by Castillo's agent and others that he's a warm-weather pitcher, and there might be something to that - his velocity was much lower in April and May, especially his peak velocity. There's another big warning sign for Castillo - the diminished effectiveness of his best pitch, his changeup. His K% on that pitch has dropped from 47% in 2019, to 40% in 2020, and all the way down to 28.2% in 2021. When Castillo's draft cost rises in March along with other purported aces, be sure not to get caught up in that inflation.

By FIP, Castillo had a better season than former teammate and NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. The surface numbers lagged way behind his indicators early on, and while they caught up to an extent, Castillo still finished well below where the underlying numbers say he deserved to be. Castillo's changeup is one of the most dominant pitches in baseball, and it plays off a heater that sits 97 mph. His slider has developed into a strong offering, making Castillo something close to a nightmare for right-handed hitters. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati has not been a problem for Castillo, historically, as he has an ERA nearly a run better at home (3.18) than on the road (4.15 ) in his career. The Reds do not project to be any better with the team cutting costs this offseason, but Castillo is still only 28 years old and this is unquestionably an ace profile on its own merit.

Spring training can be helpful in evaluating a pitcher, but it does come with some risks. Castillo sported a 12.46 ERA over four Cactus League appearances amid reports that his velocity was down. It turned out that Castillo was working on improving his slider, rather than relying more on his two best pitches, his changeup and four-seamer. Given the disparity between Castllo's first half of 2018 when his velocity was down to his second-half when the velocity was up, it was natural to be concerned. That concern cost you a breakout if you downgraded him accordingly. Castillo's fastball velocity (96.5 mph) actually improved, allowing him to post video-game quality results with his changeup (48% whiff rate, .193 WOBA against). If you want to look for a concern, Castillo's August and September were shaky, and he was limited to five starts in September.

Usually it's easy to dismiss first-half/second-half splits, but in the case of Castillo, it's hard to overlook his superb second half, especially when there's an easy explanation for his improvement. Before the All-Star break, Castillo had a 5.49 ERA, 1.65 HR/9, 21.5 K% and 7.9 BB% over 103.1 innings. In 66.1 innings after the break, Castillo turned in a 2.44 ERA, 1.22 HR/9, 26.3 K% and 5.3 BB%. The difference? Every one of Castillo's pitches recovered most of the velocity that he had in 2017 but had lost during the first half of 2018. Take his four-seamer as an example -- in September 2017 it clocked in at 97.3 mph, but in April it was down to 95.4 mph, and stayed down at that level until late July/early August, when it got back up to 96.6 mph (velocity readings courtesy of Baseball Savant). Even with the strong second half, Castillo didn't earn his NFBC ADP of 103.3, but he might exceed that in 2019 if he maintains his second-half velocity.

The Reds had been trying to develop a frontline starter to fill Johnny Cueto's shoes for a couple years, but it came to them in the unlikely form of Castillo, who was involved two trades and one rescinded trade before reaching the majors. He debuted after just 94.1 innings at Double-A and zero experience at Triple-A. Teams didn't figure him out as the year went on -- his ERA actually improved each month from July to September. Castillo was particularly dominant away from Great American Ball Park (2.84 ERA in 44.1 innings). His .247 BABIP, which would have been fifth lowest among qualified starters, will clearly regress. While we can't bank on a repeat of his rookie ratios, he should still be very effective in year two. He throws three pitches -- a fastball that averages 97.5 mph and tops out around 99-100 mph, an out-of-this world changeup and a rapidly improving slider. He has the stuff, command and size (6-foot-2, 190 pounds) to pitch atop a rotation.

Best known for being traded to San Diego and then sheepishly traded back to Miami when Colin Rea's elbow gave out after the trade, Castillo has emerged as one of the best prospects in a desolate Marlins system. He sports an 80-grade fastball with an above-average changeup and two breaking balls that are works in progress, but there is still plenty of time for refinement in the upper levels of the minors. That incomplete repertoire was still more than enough to dominate Florida State League hitters. The lack of strikeouts despite cheddar that touches triple digits illustrates his lack of a consistent out pitch, so he will need to continue to improve those offerings if he hopes to have success as a starter at Double-A and Triple-A. He is relatively new to starting, having worked exclusively as a reliever from 2012 to 2014, so becoming more adept at sequencing will also help him miss more bats. This is an arm that could take a big jump up prospect lists this year, especially now that he's in a Reds' system in the middle of a complete rebuild.

More Fantasy News

On track with progress

PSeattle Mariners

Hamstring

September 21, 2024

Castillo appears to be making good progress in his recovery from a hamstring strain, and the Mariners remain cautiously optimistic that he'll be activated from the 15-day injured list when first eligible Monday, MLB.com reports. "Progressing as he should be," manager Dan Wilson said. "I don't think there's any expected date, right now, of his return, but progressing as he has. I know Luis is very diligent about getting his work in and trying to get healthy, and I think as far as we know right now, he's doing well."

ANALYSIS
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Out with hamstring strain

PSeattle Mariners

Hamstring

September 10, 2024

Castillo was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.

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Set for MRI on Monday

PSeattle Mariners

Hamstring

September 8, 2024

Castillo (hamstring) will undergo an MRI on his left hamstring on Monday in Seattle, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.

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Departs with hamstring strain

PSeattle Mariners

Hamstring

September 8, 2024

Castillo was removed from Sunday's game against the Cardinals due to a left hamstring strain, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.

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Little run support Tuesday

PSeattle Mariners

September 4, 2024

Castillo did not factor into the decision in Tuesday's loss to the Athletics, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out five over seven innings.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Several teams checking in

PSeattle Mariners

December 14, 2024

The Orioles, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox have all inquired about trading for Castillo, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
Castillo has been rumored to be on the move to free up money for Seattle to pursue a needed bat, with Rosenthal linking Christian Walker to the team. However, the hang up is that Seattle is concerned about depth in its rotation without Castillo, so his future remains murky at this point in the offseason.

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