Matt Manning

Manning only appeared in 15 games for the Tigers in 2023, though he displayed some positive signs. The former first-round pick posted a strong 3.58 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 78 innings. That came on the heels of his 3.43 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2022. Injuries have cut into the righty's overall production, however, as he missed significant time each of the last two seasons due to a handful of issues, including a foot fracture that ended his 2023 campaign. Manning should have a rotation spot heading into 2024, though Detroit's offseason signing of Kenta Maeda adds more competition. For Manning, the biggest key is staying healthy, as he's yet to reach 100 innings at the MLB level. The Tigers will likely limit his workload to a degree, though surpassing last year's innings total should be within reach. If Manning can do that, he figures to be a decent fantasy option. However, the 25-year-old's ceiling will be capped unless he can miss some more bats. Manning posted a 5.77 K/9 last season and has yet to reach even a middling 7.0 K/9 across three seasons in the majors. As a pitch-to-contact player, he may be best deployed in certain matchups rather than as a fantasy regular.

It took a while, but Manning finally started to tap into his potential at the MLB level a bit in 2022. The righty started the year in the big-league rotation but only made two appearances before shoulder and biceps injuries put him on the shelf until August. By the end of the year, he logged only 63 innings across 12 starts, though he did manage a solid 3.43 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. It's hard to draw too many conclusions from the smaller sample size, but it was a step forward after Manning posted a 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP across 85.1 innings as a rookie in 2021. He's not really missing bats so far, with a career 6.37 K/9, so it remains to be seen just how successful Manning can be in the majors. For now, just staying healthy should be his top goal after dealing with injuries the past few years. Manning will only be 25 when the 2023 season begins, so there is room for some growth if he can stay on the field.

As one of the Tigers' top pitching prospects, Matt Manning debuted in 2021 with a 5.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 14.8% K%, and 8.6% BB% in 85.1 innings. The .305 BABIP looks reasonable, but the 61.9% LOB% should regress over time. It's safe to expect the K-BB% to improve since Manning posted a 29.8% K% and 8.7% BB% in 364 innings throughout the minor leagues. Manning used five different pitches over 11% of the time with a heavy emphasis on the four-seamer (41.4%) and sinker (19.4%). The slider remained the only pitch that elicited a double-digit SwStr% at 10.2%, yet a .379 wOBA. That's not great. Manning dealt with a knee injury in 2021, plus a forearm strain towards the end of the 2020 season. None of Manning's pitches stand out movement-wise, but it's a small sample. Opportunity is available in the Tigers rotation. If Manning improves the LOB% and K-BB%, he'll provide value as a streaming pitcher.

It was odd when Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal got the call last summer without Manning, as he is the team's best pitching prospect and was no less advanced. It quickly became clear why Manning was passed over: he suffered a mild forearm strain at the alternate site. By November, the 6-foot-6 righty claimed to be 100 percent healthy, but not in time to pitch in games during fall instructs. He was still able to work on his mechanics during instructs and has made strides with his diet and workout regimen. One of the most athletic pitching prospects in the minors, Manning's fastball and curveball have been plus offerings dating back to his prep days, and he has made major strides with a changeup that can now flash plus. He is a strike thrower, but with his long levers, command is something he can still improve on. If the forearm injury doesn't resurface (a big if), Manning could spend most of 2021 in the majors.

Manning was so consistently dominant at Double-A that his season lacked the severe peaks that typically fuel prospect hype. A 21-year-old with great size (6-foot-6) and athleticism, Manning has three plus or better pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and excellent command for his age and size. His 7.2 BB% was his best mark above rookie ball and he held hitters to a .192 average. He logged a 3.71 ERA in June, but his ERA was below 3.00 in every other month and he finished strong with a 2.28 ERA and 33:3 K:BB in 27.2 August innings. Manning has the stuff, he has the command and he seemingly has the size and durability to handle a MLB starter's workload. Aces who throw 200-plus innings are a dying breed, but Manning has a chance to be one. The Tigers won't be competitive anytime soon, so his team context isn't great, but he should reach the majors sometime this summer.

Manning had a plus fastball and hammer curveball even as an amateur, but in the middle of last season his stock took off when he started showing a plus changeup. His 2018 was similar in a lot of ways to Forrest Whitley's 2017 -- pitching at three levels of the minors while continuing to put up monster numbers against more advanced competition. Unlike Whitley, Manning didn't get notably better as he climbed the ladder, but he was consistently dominant as he went from Low-A (3.07 FIP, 20.3 K-BB%) to High-A (3.13 FIP, 22.4 K-BB%) to Double-A (2.30 FIP, 19.6 K-BB%). With two borderline 70-grade offerings and a 60-grade changeup, he won't need pinpoint command to carve up big-league hitters. The 6-foot-6 righty's control improved, logging an 11.8 BB% at Low-A, a 9.3 BB% at High-A and an 8.7 BB% in two starts at Double-A. Top-of-the-rotation upside is apparent, and he should make his MLB debut in late 2019 or early 2020.

Reports on Manning were incredibly inconsistent in 2017. Everyone agrees that there is a plus fastball and plus curveball in there somewhere, but he doesn't always have them from start to start or even inning to inning. If it weren't for his final three starts for the Whitecaps when he gave up one run with a 25:6 K:BB in 16 innings, he would have been an easy fade this offseason. It's possible he unlocked something down the stretch. A top-10 pick in 2016 with excellent size (6-foot-6, 190 pounds) and athleticism, Manning will understandably be given the benefit of the doubt by many prospect ranking services for a couple more years. However, for dynasty-league purposes, there is a different calculus for these types of pitching prospects. There is a never-ending stream of high-risk/high-reward pitchers in the lower levels, so it's worth exploring if Manning can be dealt for something more tangible. He will likely return to Low-A at the start of his age-20 season, where improving his command, changeup and overall consistency will be big points of emphasis.

The son of a former NBA player, Manning was a two-sport star in high school. Not surprisingly, he was among the most athletic pitchers taken in the 2016 draft. That helps him on the mound, as he shows better control and a more repeatable delivery than the typical 6-foot-6 teenager. He did not start pitching until his junior year, but his repertoire, headlined by a double-plus fastball, shows a lot of promise. His spike curveball is already a weapon that can serve as an out pitch inside and outside of the zone, while his changeup lags behind as a potential average offering. After giving up seven runs in his first 5.1 innings in the Gulf Coast League, Manning posted a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 36:6 K:BB across eight three-inning starts to close out his season. He is a tier below Jason Groome and Riley Pint in terms of pure stuff, but a case could be made that he has the third-highest ceiling among the prep pitchers taken in last year's draft.