Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL Central

Three divisions down, and three to go. This week, we move to the AL Central to peer into the crystal ball and search for draft day bargains. I'll continue to throw out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2025 season. We're passing the halfway point, so let's look at the:

American League Central

Chicago White Sox – The Sox had some amazing young talent in the field, and the pitching was getting there, too. Unfortunately, both underperformed the past couple seasons, triggering a full team power flush. Do Dylan Cease, Garrett Crochet or even Erick Fedde ring any bells? If any player showed positive signs, he was generally dealt for players at least a couple years away. Veteran southpaw journeyman Martin Perez has been very inconsistent at best, but he's the "ace" of the staff now. Anywhere else he's a four or five. Where do they go from there? Davis Martin or maybe Drew Thorpe? I'm going to be completely honest – I don't know where they find pitching. I'm not even sure they care. The team lost 121 games last year. They could easily surpass that. They just signed Mike Clevinger. They are talking bullpen, but maybe he finds the fountain of health and joins the rotation? A couple of semi-vets, Bryse Wilson and Jonathan Cannon are probably next in line, but they really don't excite anybody. A couple decent kids who could move into the rotation are Noah Schultz and Jairo Iriarte. Overall, the list of rotation arms is pretty much a list of pitchers to avoid.

Some of you may have been hoping a dynamic bullpen here could help bail out the woeful starting rotation. Don't hold your breath. I honestly don't know where to look right now. The only arm with any closing experience is a health risk. Will Clevinger or James Karinchak be the guy?  Karinchak recently came over from Cleveland and does have 15 career saves. If he's not ready to go, maybe it's either Justin Anderson or Shane Smith who came over in the Rule 5 draft. Lefty Fraser Ellard can be competent at times, but the bottom line is nobody stands out, and it could be a revolving door. Of course, the number of ninth-inning leads might very well make "closing" a moot point.

Recapping the White Sox:

The arm to roster: None of the above? Maybe Schultz.

He'll likely be overpriced: All of the above.

Best of the bullpen: Karinchak looks like an early favorite for saves.

Cleveland Guardians – The Guardians have long been a source of quality pitching, albeit a relatively quiet source. For a longtime I waffled on Shane Bieber, but he has pretty much won me over. His once rather average stuff has improved significantly, and, more importantly, his command of his entire repertoire might possibly be the best in the game. Unfortunately, he and the recently signed John Means will be out until sometime in the second half. I think Tanner Bibee is next up on my list, which means he'll be No. 1 for a while. He looked adequate in his brief minor league career, but the Guardians have a way of making adequate pitchers much better as they mature. Gavin Williams or maybe Ben Lively likely will eventually work from the four/five slots and they are both deep into that maturing process. It looks like Luis L. Ortiz, Logan Allen and/or Triston McKenzie will initially handle the fourth and fifth spots. I like Allen slightly better right now, but he can be inconsistent; he's a soft-tosser, which makes me a bit skittish. And, when everyone is healthy, where do they fit in? A nice problem to have. The pipeline isn't empty either, as I expect Joey Cantillo will see more of Cleveland (he got a taste last season). The young southpaw is definitely worth a look, especially in dynasty/keeper formats. I think he could eventually lead the rotation.

A few short years ago, I said, "The guy I really want to see in the ninth inning is Emmanuel Clase." Well, we have now seen him for a couple seasons, and he is one of the best closer's in the game with an equally dominant set-up guy, Cade Smith. Beyond Clase and Smith, Paul Sewald will also serve as a highly skilled set-up guy, while Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and eventually Trevor Stephan, Erik Sabrowski and Jakob Junis (a potential swingman), are also in the mix of a fairly deep pen.

Recapping the Guardians:

The arm to manage: Cantillo is loaded with upside. He's a target in keeper leagues.

He'll likely be overpriced: Williams is okay, but he could be a bit too expensive.

Best of the bullpen: Clase is an elite closer in the game. Enough said.

Detroit Tigers – At one time the best hopes for Tigers' fans was in the arms of a few nice kids. Matt Manning and Casey Mize were both considered blue-chip pitching prospects, but they haven't found much success. Now, Tarik Skubal is the latest great hope. Both of the first two were seen as legitimate top-of-the-rotation prospects. Mize underwent Tommy John and back surgery, which cost him all of 2023. Skubal has a big arm and flashed his massive upside in 2024. I liked Manning a bit better than the other two, and he finally appeared to be finding his stride, but he hasn't topped 100 innings since 2019. Keep your fingers crossed. They are all worthy of consideration, especially in keeper/dynasty formats, but I need to see progress from Mize and Manning. This year, looking for stability, they re-signed Jack Flaherty, and Kenta Maeda is still around after a horrendous 2024. Both have enjoyed success and tough times. What will we see in 2025? I'm inclined to look for at least some bounce-back. Reese Olson and maybe Alex Cobb are other options but not necessarily great options. One other name to note is Jackson Jobe. With Skenes up, Jobe is now No. 1 on the kids list. I love his slider and change, so perhaps he locks down a rotation spot. You want to own him.

Overall, this has been a pretty shaky bullpen. They appeared to be trending upward with Alex Lange handling most of the ninth-inning duties, but he is expected to miss the first couple months with a lat injury. Jason Foley, his primary set-up man, will probably step in. However, it quickly gets thin behind them. Tommy Kahnle is now on board along with lefty Tyler Holton who is a versatile type. Beau Brieske and Will Vest are other considerations for late-inning work, but they aren't likely to help a fantasy team. Also, Brant Hurter serves as a pretty decent swingman.

Recapping the Tigers:

The arm to roster: Skubal won't come cheap but he's a genuine ace.

He'll likely be overpriced: Mize still has a following, but I'm skeptical at best.

Best of the bullpen: Lange may have locked it in and just needs to get healthy.

Kansas City Royals – The Royals are, in many ways, also experiencing a changing of the guard in their rotation. The two members of the staff I had been modestly touting the past couple years were Brady Singer and Brad Keller, and they are both gone. Now the Royals have Cole Ragans who had an amazing season in 2024, and they brought in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to help the kids grow and they certainly did grow. That looks like a solid nucleus, but I'm skeptical we will see similar in 2025. Wacha and Lugo are longtime journeymen who can contribute innings but are far from aces. The same might be said for fringe fantasy starter Kyle Wright, who is coming back from shoulder surgery, and Michael Lorenzen. I'm also not a big Kris Bubic fan, but he's also in the mix. There is potentially more help on the way. The Royals have gone after pitching in the draft over the past couple years, and one or two of their top prospects could find regular work in Kansas City this summer. The question on my mind is, where are Asa Lacy and Daniel Lynch along the developmental timeline? Lynch is progressing slowly, and Lacy has sort of disappeared because of injuries, but he looked pretty good before the injuries set in.

The bullpen has also been restructured with Carlos Estevez stepping up in a big way, complemented by Lucas Erceg. They were listed as "co-closers," but, as anticipated, Estevez has taken the reins and will collect the lion's share of saves. James McArthur looked good at times last year, and he probably has the best credentials to take over ninth-inning duties if the top two stumble. Hunter Harvey returns as a primary set up guy, with John Schreiber, Chris Stratton, and Angel Zerpa also hoping to get some occasional leads into the late innings. I also like a kid sleeper – Evan Sisk – to work his way into the later innings, while veteran Ross Stripling serves as a swingman.

Recapping the Royals:

The arm to roster: Ragans could take a step forward. No guarantees, but it is possible.

He'll likely be overpriced: Wacha looks better than I expect, but he is limited in value.

Best of the bullpen: Estevez looks like the guy but with others waiting in the wings.

Minnesota Twins – The Twins are a legitimate pick to win the AL Central, and this season looks like a great year to be a Twins fan. That said, I'm at least partially basing that on pitching depth. I do anticipate a strong season from Pablo Lopez who doesn't always get the attention he deserves, and Joe Ryan could be poised to take another big step forward. They have another arm with top-of-the-rotation potential in Bailey Ober who is rounding into a nice, reliable starter. Chris Paddack is also back on the radar after losing almost two seasons to Tommy John surgery. He's better than his recent peripherals suggest. The pitching will certainly be deeper and considerably stronger if long and lanky David Festa continues to move forward. He caught my eye. And, if the Twins need help as the season progresses, I also like a couple kid pitching prospects. I think Simeon Woods Richardson and maybe even Jordan Balazovic are basically ready to consistently contribute at the MLB level.

I definitely consider the Twins' bullpen a major strength, led by arguably the best arm in baseball today. Jhoan Duran averages 102 mph – that's right, averages – and, most importantly, he has developed enough command to make the velocity work. That said, the bullpen as a whole looks pretty solid. They have holdover set-up guys Griffin Jax, Justin Topa, Cole Sands and Brock Stewart, with Danny Coulombe returning to provide a solid bridge to the late innings, while Louis Varland gives them innings and can serve as a swingman if needed.

Recapping the Twins:

The arm to roster: Ryan is still knocking on the door and I'm buying this spring.

He'll likely be overpriced: I'm staying away from Paddack until he regains his form.

Best of the bullpen: Duran is entrenched as a top-tier closer. Love his stuff.

Next week we'll look at the NL East.