Matt Strahm

Strahm has been inconsistent over the past several seasons, but he performed well while working solely as a reliever in 2020. He posted a 2.61 ERA and career-best 0.87 WHIP over 20.2 innings while making 19 appearances for the Padres. Strahm worked as a late reliever in 2020 but failed to convert on either of his save chances. While his numbers were encouraging on the surface, Strahm's underlying marks were concerning. His 5.01 xFIP was his worst since 2017, and his strikeout rate dropped to 18.1% after posting marks above 24.0% over his first four seasons in the majors. Instead, the 29-year-old relied more on limiting meaningful contact, and he improved to a 44.1 GB% and 5.1% barrel rate. Although Strahm had encouraging results on the surface, he struggled with strikeouts. He's unlikely to close out games for the Padres in 2021, while his underlying marks suggest that his output may not be sustainable.

Strahm got the chance to work as a starter at the beginning of 2019, but his success out of the bullpen in 2018 did not translate to success in the rotation. In his time as a starter, he recorded a 5.42 ERA with a 77:17 K:BB in 16 starts before being sent back to the bullpen at the beginning of July. He settled down once he returned to his old role, with a 3.09 ERA and 41:5 K:BB. Strahm cut his walk rate drastically to 4.5% for the season, and his command graded out as above average by Command+. The 28-year-old has the repertoire to be a starter, with four pitches that he throws over 13% of the time, but his performance as a starter last season will likely give the team pause before considering him for a role in the rotation again. His fantasy value is limited as long as he remains a middle-innings reliever.

After returning from a knee injury that cost him the first month of the season, Strahm went on to post an excellent 2.05 ERA in 61.1 innings in his first season on the West Coast. Though he benefited from good luck in the form of an unsustainable .226 BABIP and an equally-unrepeatable 86.1% strand rate, he also made legitimate improvements, cutting his walk rate dramatically to a league-average 8.6% while raising his strikeout rate to 28.2%. It was a strong enough performance to give him some deep-league value. A role change could make him a mixed-league sleeper -- Strahm is expected to be in the mix for a rotation spot this season. He technically started five games last year, but all came as part of bullpen games. Strahm throws four pitches at least 12% of the time, so a transition back to starting should theoretically not be too difficult.

Strahm ranked among relief leaders over the final two months of 2016 with a 1.23 ERA and 30 strikeouts across 22 innings. After struggling to begin 2017, Strahm rebounded in May (2.08 ERA) before ultimately going down with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee. The Padres acquired him soon after the diagnosis, and he's expected to be ready sometime during spring training. A healthy Strahm should receive another look as a starter in another pitcher-friendly atmosphere. Though the 26-year-old's strikeout upside makes him worth a stash in some leagues, poor control (5.2 BB/9 in 56.2 career innings) and possibly limited pitch counts might prevent him from taking a significant step forward as a starter in 2018. He would probably enjoy more immediate success in another high-impact bullpen role.

It was reasonable to view Strahm as the Royals' top pitching prospect prior to his callup at the end of July, given Kyle Zimmer's recurring shoulder issues. However, Strahm had so much success as a reliever following his promotion that the Royals may simply see an elite late-inning arm who they have under control for six more years and be satisfied. Among relievers that threw 20-plus innings last year, Strahm ranked fifth in ERA (1.23), eighth in FIP (2.06) and 16th in strikeout rate (34.1 percent). The move to the bullpen certainly allowed his stuff to play up, as he was comfortably sitting in the mid-90s and touching 97 mph with his fastball in relief after sitting at 91-92 mph as a starter. Not surprisingly, his changeup and curveball both play quite nicely off 95 from the left side. His floor has been established as a shutdown setup man. Whether the Royals decide to get greedy and attempt to turn Strahm into a mid-rotation arm is to be determined.