We have a two-game NLDS slate Thursday, and there are potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities in both contests. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Teoscar Hernandez, LAD vs. PHI: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Hernandez had a rough go of it against Phillies starting southpaw Cristopher Sanchez back in Game 1, striking out in all three plate appearances against him before later homering off Matt Strahm. Nevertheless, Hernandez still boasts a .333 career average against Sanchez in 15 career encounters, a sample where four of his five hits have gone for extra bases.
Hernandez was partly done in by a .143 BABIP against lefties at home during the regular season, but he owns an .879 OPS against southpaws in 12 plate appearances this postseason and an .877 OPS with 19 homers and 58 RBI versus lefties since the start of the 2023 campaign.
Sanchez allowed a .263 average to righty hitters on the road during the regular season, along with 116 hits and runs. Hernandez also has a solid track record against a couple of Phillies relievers and has averaged 4.0 hits + runs + RBI per game thus far this postseason.
Tyler Glasnow, LAD vs. PHI: Less Than 28.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score
On the one hand, Glasnow is coming into Thursday's start refreshed and with a likely lively arm after pitching just 4.2 innings since Sept. 27. However, control has been an issue for the big right-hander since his delayed July 18 season debut, and he finished the regular campaign with a 4.3 BB/9 figure that tied for his highest since 2018.
Starting pitcher stints are shorter in the postseason with the stakes higher, and the combination of that fact and Glasnow's spotty location could very well conspire to limit him to a relatively abbreviated stay on the mound. The Phillies finished the second half of the season with a solid 8.5 percent walk rate against righties on the road as well, which further ups the chances of Glasnow driving up his pitch count fairly quickly.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. MIL: More Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI/ More Than 1.5 Total Bases
Crow-Armstrong's bat has started to come around in his first career postseason after a slow start, as he's gone for 5-for-16 with three RBI over Chicago's last four playoff games. The ascending slugger put together a breakout regular season as well where he slugged 31 homers, drove in 95 runs and stole 35 bases for good measure.
Crow-Armstong averaged 2.2 hits + runs + RBI per game during the regular season, as well as 1.8 total bases per game. His power gives him a chance to hit the latter prop with one swing of the bat, especially since he also posted a .316 average, .950 OPS and .400 wOBA against righties at Wrigley during the 2025 campaign.
Additionally, while Brewers starter Freddy Peralta naturally represents a tough challenge, Crow-Armstrong has gotten to him for a .462 average and 1.269 OPS over 14 career plate appearances while striking out just once in the sample.
William Contreras, MIL at CHI: More Than 0.5 Hits
Contreras is having an outstanding series thus far after a strong regular season, going 5-for-12 with a double, a homer and two RBI over three games. While his bat is likely to cool off at some point, we can certainly consider banking on him rapping out at least one hit Thursday, especially considering how shaky Cubs starter Matthew Boyd looked back in Game 1.
Boyd had a disastrous Game 1 where he lasted just two-thirds of an inning while allowing six runs (two earned). The left-hander has also had trouble with Contreras in the past, surrendering a .500 average to him in 10 plate appearances without recording a single strikeout. Additionally, Boyd's Game 1 troubles were actually an extension of some stretch-run struggles, as he pitched to a 6.08 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 1.7 HR/9 over the 37 innings covering his last seven regular-season starts.
For his part, Contreras didn't have a good body of work against lefties during the season, yet he still carries a .341 average and 1.012 OPS in that split since the start of the 2023 season and is 3-for-5 with a homer against southpaws so far this postseason.
