Nick Senzel

Nick Senzel

28-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Washington Nationals
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Senzel will begin a new chapter in 2024 after signing a one-year, $2 million contract with Washington in December. His time in Cincinnati was tumultuous, with multiple ill-fated positional changes and injuries dooming the 2016 second overall pick's tenure in the Reds organization. He missed the start of last season with a toe injury and later spent time on the IL with knee irritation. There was talk of Senzel being traded at the deadline, but the Reds held him only to send the 28-year-old to the minors for a stretch in August. Senzel has flashed potential sporadically in his five seasons at the major-league level -- his 13 homers last season were a career high, but even so he has not cleared a .700 OPS since his rookie season in 2019. The Nationals are nonetheless betting on untapped potential and project to open the season with Senzel as their starting third baseman. It's anyone's guess how long it will last. For many, Senzel has not shown enough during his time on the field to warrant the health risk. Helping his case is dual eligibility entering the 2024 season (third base, outfield). Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#500
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Nationals in December of 2023.
Blasts first homer
OFWashington Nationals
April 21, 2024
Senzel went 1-for-4 with a solo home run during Sunday's 6-0 win over the Astros.
ANALYSIS
Senzel's first homer as a National came in the sixth inning off Astros' reliever Tayler Scott. The third baseman had struck out in his first two at-bats Sunday and had accumulated just three singles in 17 at-bats following his return from a fractured thumb prior to depositing the 2-2 pitch over the left-center field wall. Senzel is coming off a season in which he hit .236 with a career-high 13 home runs in 301 at-bats for Cincinnati.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
1
1
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+41%
OPS vs LHP
2024
 
 
-100%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+103%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+2%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .797 250 38 10 30 6 .292 .337 .459
Since 2022vs Right .566 511 58 9 38 8 .202 .275 .291
2024vs Left .000 3 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
2024vs Right .732 17 2 1 1 0 .250 .294 .438
2023vs Left 1.008 126 24 9 20 3 .347 .389 .619
2023vs Right .497 204 25 4 22 3 .164 .240 .257
2022vs Left .595 121 14 1 10 3 .241 .292 .304
2022vs Right .604 290 31 4 15 5 .226 .298 .307
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2024
 
 
+103%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+23%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+9%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .630 388 54 9 34 9 .235 .287 .344
Since 2022Away .656 373 42 10 34 5 .230 .304 .352
2024Home .875 8 2 1 1 0 .250 .250 .625
2024Away .432 12 0 0 0 0 .182 .250 .182
2023Home .624 164 26 5 20 4 .224 .268 .355
2023Away .768 166 23 8 22 2 .248 .325 .443
2022Home .626 216 26 3 13 5 .242 .302 .323
2022Away .574 195 19 2 12 3 .217 .289 .286
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Stat Review
How does Nick Senzel compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.14
 
BB Rate
5.0%
 
K Rate
35.0%
 
BABIP
.273
 
ISO
.158
 
AVG
.211
 
OBP
.250
 
SLG
.368
 
OPS
.618
 
wOBA
.273
 
Exit Velocity
83.4 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
25.0%
 
Barrels/PA
0.0%
 
Expected BA
.192
 
Expected SLG
.213
 
Sprint Speed
22.5 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
58.3%
 
Line Drive %
0.0%
 
Fly Ball %
41.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Likely to be shopped
OFCincinnati Reds
November 9, 2023
Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer expects trade talk to "heat up" around Senzel in the coming days.
ANALYSIS
Senzel is a likely non-tender candidate for the Reds, but that deadline isn't until next Friday and some team that views him as a potential late bloomer could swoop on a change-of-scenery type trade. The 28-year-old former top prospect has stayed mostly healthy over the last two seasons, though he owns a weak .232/.296/.344 batting line in 952 major-league plate appearances since the beginning of the 2020 campaign.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Senzel missed time with injuries last season and disappointed when healthy. His 110 games played represent a career high, but he still hit the injured list three times and suffered other minor injuries. In between, he hit 231/.296/.306 with five homers and eight steals. A .249 xBA suggests he got a bit unlucky, but his batted-ball numbers were generally unimpressive. An 18.1 K% did mean he made an above-average amount of contact, but that came with a 3.2% barrel rate (not too far from his 4.9% career mark), so it's no surprise he failed to do much damage. In theory, there's still enough here to separate him from other late lottery tickets, but that's becoming increasingly untrue. Yes, he's still the same person who was drafted second overall in 2016, and he still has a path to playing time in a very hitter-friendly park. But he's also heading into his age-28 and owns a .663 career OPS in 1,036 plate appearances, to say nothing of his health concerns.
Senzel's 2021 season started in ominous fashion as he left the Reds' Opening Day game in the fourth inning after a diving attempt in center field. The shoulder injury suffered that day turned out to be relatively minor, but Senzel battled heel and knee issues shortly thereafter and was under the knife for left knee surgery by the end of May. The Reds optioned Senzel to Triple-A Louisville upon his activation from the 60-day injured list in mid-August since he was still noticeably favoring his left knee while on the field. A late-season return to the majors was quietly taken off the table in early September. With his progress up in the air during the lockout, Senzel is left as an even bigger question mark than he's always been between the injuries and lack of a defensive home. Cincinnati deserves criticism for how its handled Senzel, but at the same time, the former top prospect has done little when healthy.
Injuries and illness ruined another season for Senzel in 2020, as he played in only 23 games. The second overall pick in 2016, Senzel hasn't yet managed to make it through a full season as a professional since 2017, playing in less than half of the allotted season in two of the last three years. Illness, mostly in the form of a trip to the COVID-19 reserve list, was the primary culprit, but he also missed time with a sprained left ring finger and a groin injury. It's pretty easy to dismiss Senzel's 2020 hitting stats, given how much time he missed and how he was in-and-out of the lineup even after returning. Suffice to say, he did not take the next step, hitting .186/.247/.357 in 77 plate appearances. Manager David Bell aggressively platooned, both with his starting lineup and with in-game changes, often costing Senzel plate appearances too, which in turn places a drag on his value in mixed league formats.
Your assessment of Senzel's 2019 season depends on your expectations. The 2016 second overall pick was sent down before Opening Day and subsequently injured his ankle in spring training, delaying his major-league debut until May. Upon his arrival, Senzel didn't exactly dominate, turning in a .256/.315/.427 season with a 24.7 K% and 14 stolen bases. That's not a bad season for an average rookie, but insufficient considering his 198 ADP in the NFBC Main Event. A red flag was his 87.7 mph average exit velocity, which ranked well below league average. One thing to watch for is to see if he starts pulling the ball more -- in the minors he consistently pulled the ball over 40% of the time, but last year that dropped to 34%. Senzel also still hasn't had a full healthy season. Between the ankle injury and a season-ending torn shoulder labrum that required surgery, he played only 104 games in 2019.
Senzel has hit at least .305, notched an ISO of at least .171 and a wRC+ of at least 147 in every full-season league he's played in while never striking out more than 20.2% of the time. He exhibits five-category potential, stealing eight bases on 10 attempts in 44 games last year and grading out as an above-average runner. Unfortunately, vertigo was an issue for the second straight season -- he missed the final week of 2017 with the condition and it cost him most of May last year. He also missed the final two months of 2018 with a broken right index finger. There is little precedent for the vertigo issue, and it adds a small layer of risk to what would otherwise seem like a risk-free profile. Defensively, Senzel can play second base and third base, but worked in left field during instructs and may eventually debut in center field, given the Reds' offseason moves. He could retain multi-position eligibility in a handful of his early big-league seasons.
A five-tool third baseman, Senzel has separated himself from the rest of the hitting prospects who went in the first round of the 2016 draft. His above-average speed makes him unique among corner-infield prospects, and in the second half of last year he started to tap into his plus raw power. Senzel hit 11 professional home runs in 130 pro games before being promoted to the Southern League, where he hit 10 long balls in just 57 games and led the league with a 184 wRC+, despite playing his home games in the pitcher-friendly ballpark in Pensacola. His season came to an odd conclusion when he was shut down in late August with symptoms of vertigo -- a condition worth tracking as spring training begins. Assuming everything checks out OK on the health front, he should begin the year at Triple-A Louisville and enter the big-league lineup as soon as the Reds find a way to make room for him at third base, which may prove difficult, given how well their infielders performed in 2017.
Cincinnati continued the trend of teams taking advanced college hitters early in the draft over top arms, selecting Senzel with the second overall pick in June. He quickly established himself as the class of the farm system, posting a .982 OPS with Low-A Dayton. His excellent approach and plate skills were on full display, with Senzel managing a 12.9 percent walk rate and a sub-20 percent strikeout rate while hitting for notable power in a spacious home park. In fact, Senzel finished third on the team in home runs despite playing only 58 games. He also runs well for his size, and could offer 10-20 steals annually in his first couple years in the big leagues. With a well-rounded skill set, Senzel could rise quickly through the Reds' system, perhaps reaching the upper levels before the end of 2017. He's already a top-30 prospect for fantasy purposes and may be in the top-10 discussion by season's end.
More Fantasy News
Out of Friday's lineup
OFWashington Nationals
April 19, 2024
Senzel is not in the lineup for Friday's game versus Houston.
ANALYSIS
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Activated from injured list
OFWashington Nationals
April 15, 2024
The Nationals reinstated Senzel (thumb) from the 10-day injured list Monday, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Set to start rehab assignment
OFWashington Nationals
Thumb
April 6, 2024
Nationals manager Dave Martinez said Saturday that Senzel (thumb) will begin his rehab assignment with Double-A Harrisburg on Monday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Placed on IL
OFWashington Nationals
Thumb
March 30, 2024
The Nationals placed Senzel on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a fractured right thumb, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Out 3-to-4 weeks
OFWashington Nationals
Thumb
March 28, 2024
Nationals manager Dave Martinez said that Senzel is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after fracturing his right thumb in during batting practice prior to Thursday's 8-2 loss to the Reds, the Associated Press reports.
ANALYSIS
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