Pablo Lopez

Pablo Lopez

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Minnesota Twins
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Lopez had an impressive first season in Minnesota by finishing seventh in the AL Cy Young voting and going 2-0 and giving up one run in 12.2 innings in the postseason. Lopez changed his arsenal in the offseason to feature a sweeper as his primary off-speed pitch which resulted in more strikeouts. Lopez had a career-high 29.2% K% and 14.8% swinging K%. He allowed just a .215 wOBA and generated a 36.3% K% on his sweeper. He also set a new high 194 innings while maintaining career-best velocity (94.8 average mph fastball). The Twins signed him to a four-year, $73.54 million contract extension after his trade from Miami as they believe they traded for a true ace and felt validated by his playoff performance. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#40
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $73.54 million contract extension with the Twins in April of 2023. Contract includes additional $25,000 for every All-Star Game appearance.
Hit hard by Rays
PMinnesota Twins
June 19, 2024
Lopez didn't factor into the decision Tuesday against Tampa Bay, allowing five runs on seven hits and a walk across four innings. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
Four of the five runs attributed to Lopez came via the long ball, with Randy Arozarena launching a three-run homer in the first inning and Brandon Lowe notching a solo home run in the fifth, marking Lopez's seventh consecutive start allowing a round-tripper. The 28-year-old has allowed five or more runs in four of his last six appearances, owning an 8.94 ERA during that stretch and ballooning his ERA to a career-worst 5.63 overall. He's lined up for a road start against the Athletics on Sunday.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
88
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
85
How many pitches does Pablo Lopez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Pablo Lopez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
2024
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-24%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-12%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .262 978 222 68 234 45 5 35
Since 2022vs Right .218 899 273 51 181 39 6 26
2024vs Left .269 177 46 6 45 9 0 10
2024vs Right .252 163 41 12 37 10 0 6
2023vs Left .271 407 104 27 101 17 1 13
2023vs Right .205 394 130 21 75 9 4 11
2022vs Left .249 394 72 35 88 19 4 12
2022vs Right .218 342 102 18 69 20 2 9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-21%
ERA on Road
2024
 
 
-17%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-26%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-34%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 4.51 1.22 227.1 12 11 0 9.7 2.4 1.1
Since 2022Away 3.57 1.13 226.2 15 13 0 10.0 2.3 1.4
2024Home 5.14 1.29 42.0 3 3 0 9.2 1.3 1.5
2024Away 6.16 1.21 38.0 3 3 0 10.4 2.8 2.1
2023Home 4.21 1.17 98.1 5 3 0 11.3 2.3 1.0
2023Away 3.10 1.14 95.2 6 5 0 10.4 2.2 1.2
2022Home 4.55 1.25 87.0 4 5 0 8.1 3.0 0.9
2022Away 3.00 1.09 93.0 6 5 0 9.3 2.3 1.2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Pablo Lopez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.83
 
K/9
9.8
 
BB/9
2.0
 
HR/9
1.8
 
Fastball
94.5 mph
 
ERA
5.63
 
WHIP
1.25
 
BABIP
.323
 
GB/FB
1.15
 
Left On Base
63.1%
 
Exit Velocity
82.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.5%
 
Spin Rate
2260 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.5%
 
Swinging Strike
13.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Closing in on long-term deal
PMinnesota Twins
April 17, 2023
Lopez and the Twins are close to finalizing a four-year, $73.5 million contract extension, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports.
ANALYSIS
The deal would begin in 2024, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, which means it would cover what would have been the first three years of free agency for Lopez. Lopez has posted a 1.73 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 33:6 K:BB across his first 26 innings with Minnesota.
See All MLB Rumors
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Pa-Lo answered the health concerns we highlighted last season as he took the ball all 32 times it was given to him and was one of 27 pitchers to throw at least 180 innings on the season. Yet, 2022 was a bit of a disappointment in his outcomes as he won 10 of the 32 starts for the struggling Miami club while his ERA jumped three quarters of a run from the previous season and his strikeout rate fell four percentage points. He was still tough to hit and stingy with baserunners, but his upside was limited by the misfortunes of the Miami offense. Lopez and Kyle Wright were extremely similar from a statistical profile this past season, yet Wright had 21 wins and a 3.19 ERA thanks to 5.3 runs per game while Lopez was supported with just 3.2 runs per outing. There was nothing wrong with the pitcher, rather, the surrounding cast was limiting his true fantasy upside. That could change after he was traded to Minnesota in January. He'll have a better supporting cast though a slightly less friendly park.
Lopez is the type of pitcher that can make or break a fantasy team. He absolutely has front-of-the-rotation stuff, highlighted by one of the best changeups in baseball. He is quite capable of throwing any one of his five pitches to both righties and lefties and putting it where he needs to put it. The league hit below .235 against four of his five offerings and only took him yard 11 times on the season. He has improved his K-BB% each of his four seasons in the majors, and his WHIP has improved in a similar pattern. The only question mark with Lopez is health because he has yet to demonstrate it over the course of a full season. He went down in his final outing before the break with shoulder tightness and did not make it back on the mound until the final day of the season. Lopez has yet to work even 115 innings in any professional season, so you can't draft him as an ace.
The Marlins were one of the best stories in baseball last season, and their impressive corps of young starters -- which includes Lopez -- was a big reason for their success. Lopez had a couple clunkers in early September, but he still managed a 3.09 FIP during the regular season, ranking 15th among all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. He bumped his strikeout rate up to 24.6%, a number supported by a healthy 35.1 O-Swing% and 12.1 SwStr% (per FanGraphs). The right-hander works mostly four-seam fastball-sinker-changeup, which is a mix conducive to generating groundballs and weak contact. His curveball showed flashes of coming along as a put-away pitch last season, although it got crushed when he left it out over the heart of the plate. Lopez has not hurt himself with walks with a career 6.6 BB% at the big-league level. There is real upside here although the cat's already out of the bag in many circles.
The right-hander made his debut for the Marlins in 2018, and after becoming the talk of the Grapefruit League last spring, earned a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Lopez put together a solid first half (4.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP) before going down with a shoulder strain, which sidelined him for over two months. He struggled in seven starts after coming off the IL with a 7.01 ERA. Lopez had a 20.3 K% and 5.8 BB% and mixes in a curveball and changeup to go with his 94-mph fastball. His numbers don't jump off the page, and he could be hurt some by the Marlins moving in the fences, but he is only entering his age-24 season, so we should not consider him a finished product. He could get by as a low-WHIP groundball pitcher even if his strikeout rate doesn't significantly improve. If he can come anywhere near his first-half numbers from last season he should see consistent innings for Miami.
Lopez hadn't pitched above High-A prior to the 2018 season, but a series of good starts in the high minors saw him promoted to the big leagues in late June. He performed competently in 10 starts for the struggling Marlins, recording a 4.14 ERA before being shut down with a shoulder strain in early September. His greatest strength thus far in his professional career has been his ability to avoid walks -- his 7.3% walk rate in his debut was good, though he'd actually kept his walk rate at 5.0% or below at each of his minor-league stops. His 18.6% strikeout rate wasn't particularly impressive, however, leaving him looking like a back-end starter. It's unclear if he'll have a chance to fill out the Marlins' rotation from the start of this season, but his pitcher-friendly home park will make him a decent deep-league streaming option when called upon.
More Fantasy News
Rebounds for sixth win
PMinnesota Twins
June 12, 2024
Lopez (6-6) earned the win Wednesday over Colorado, allowing two runs on five hits over five innings. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles with control in loss
PMinnesota Twins
June 6, 2024
Lopez (5-6) took the loss against the Yankees on Thursday, allowing seven runs on four hits and six walks while striking out four batters over four innings.
ANALYSIS
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Returns to form in win
PMinnesota Twins
May 31, 2024
Lopez (5-5) earned the win in Friday's 6-1 victory over Houston, allowing one run on six hits and one walk over seven innings. He struck out nine.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard again Sunday
PMinnesota Twins
May 26, 2024
Lopez (4-5) allowed six runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out six over 4.2 innings, taking the loss Sunday versus the Rangers.
ANALYSIS
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Shelled in loss
PMinnesota Twins
May 20, 2024
Lopez (4-3) took the loss Monday against Washington, allowing seven runs on eight hits and one walk over five innings. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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