Rafael Devers

Coming out of the break, Devers .324/.379/.602 was pacing for a career-best year. He then spent 10 days on the IL with a sore hamstring. After returning, Devers was unable to recapture form, posting a .248/.325/.383 line the rest of the way. Other than the 1.5-mph drop in fly-ball exit velocity, Devers' underlying skills weren't much different over the second half, but his BABIP dropped from .353 to .289. For the season, he still managed a career-best 140 wRC+, but a drop in homers and a less potent Red Sox lineup resulted in fewer than 90 runs and 90 RBI for Devers. He eclipsed the century mark in each of the prior two full seasons. His defense remained below average, but he showed signs of improvement. With Devers still just 26-year-old, his best season is probably yet to come. He doesn't run, but Devers crushes the rest of the categories. He may not be first-round material, but he's in the discussion.

While he arrived there a little differently, Devers essentially matched 2019's breakthrough campaign, posting a 134 wRC+, two ticks higher than in 2019. Devers hit for a higher average two years ago, but last season he set a new career best with 38 homers. Hitting flyballs at a greater frequency and with a career-high avgEV fueled the spike. Devers recorded a career-low 36.1% chase rate, though it was still five points above league average. However, he was a bit more aggressive within the zone, showing signs of maturing plate discipline. Defense remains a huge issue as Devers' -13 defensive runs saved was by far the worst mark at the hot corner, though it appears a position change is at least a year away. Devers doesn't run enough to be an elite fantasy batter, but he checks all the other boxes: durability, great home park, solid lineup and young enough to get better. Draft with confidence.

Devers had a breakout 2019 campaign with 32 home runs and a 132 wRC+, but he took a step back during the shortened 2020 season. The 24-year-old appeared to have his strikeout issues under control, but then his strikeout rate ballooned to 27.0% while his walk rate dropped to 5.2%, both of which represent the worst marks of his admittedly young career. Most of the issues came during July, as he went 5-for-29 with four doubles and one walk in eight games. He also continues to struggle against left-handed pitching (.613 OPS), which could end up limiting his ceiling if he doesn't figure them out. A rebound season in 2021 seems like a good bet if Devers can bring his strikeout rate back down, though he may have a tough time replicating the impressive numbers from 2019 that resulted in a 12th-place finish in AL MVP voting.

We have seen this script before: positive rookie year followed by a sophomore slump, and then a huge breakout year. Devers dedicated himself to getting into shape after his disappointing 2018 season, and the hard work paid off with a monster offensive season in 2019. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate and expected batting average were each in the 90th percentile, and he drastically reduced his strikeout rate from 25% to 17% last season. He has power to all fields, but also can be neutralized by lefties as he had a .996 OPS vs righties but a .744 OPS against lefties last season with just seven of his 32 homers coming off southpaws. It is unlikely there is another step forward coming in 2020, because it is nearly impossible to expect Devers to get over 700 plate appearances in consecutive years. Devers could be dealing with the pressures to do even more with the bat to make up for what Boston loses this winter.

Devers celebrated his 22nd birthday during Game 2 of the 2018 World Series, when many prospects are resting after their Triple-A campaign, so there's plenty of time to improve in deficient areas. Devers' ability to handle velocity and hang in against southpaws heads his skill set. He needs to work on consistency at the dish and in the field, but that should come with experience. Once Boston handed him the reins at the hot corner in the playoffs, his defense rose to the occasion. Contact is Devers' biggest batting woe. His 6.1% Barrels/PA was 91st in the league, impressive for his age. His .281 BABIP seems low according to Statcast data, though his line-drive rate was below average. Still, positive regression is likely. His second-half hamstring issues shouldn't be much of a concern after his playoff performance. Be aggressive but not overly so as Devers may still sit against some lefties. The long-term upside as a perennial All-Star is still on course.

The Red Sox decided to give Devers a look rather than trade for a third baseman at the deadline, and Devers proved up to the challenge as he more than held his own against top-level pitching as a 20-year-old. Devers posted a .344 wOBA and 111 wRC+ in 240 plate appearance and showed an ability to easily catch up to premium velocity. He was fortunate on balls in play (.342 BABIP), but Devers' strikeout rate was entirely manageable at 23.8 percent and the quality of the contact he made was excellent (89.5 mph average exit velocity). Devers beat up on same-handed pitching, albeit in a small sample, and he continued his success into the ALDS. A 9.7 percent walk rate in 77 games at Double-A last season hints at room for growth in that department as the former top prospect matures, and the lineup is conducive to compiling strong run and RBI totals. Fenway traditionally isn't great for lefty power, but Devers' bat is good enough to overcome the park.

Devers' future with Boston became a whole lot clearer in a matter of hours at the MLB Winter Meetings. That's when president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski traded prospects Yoan Moncada and Mauricio Dubon, and Travis Shaw, who started more games at third base than any other player last season. There's now a direct line from Pablo Sandoval in Fenway Park to Devers, who should start the 2017 season at Double-A Portland. As a 19-year-old in the Carolina League, where the average age is 22, Devers overcame an awful start to become a postseason All-Star selection, slashing .282/.335/.443/.779 with 11 homers and 32 doubles. The Carolina League, particularly the park in Salem, notoriously suppresses power, so expect to see an uptick in homers when he moves north to Portland. He also added an element of speed, posting career highs in triples (eight) and stolen bases (18), a testament to him showing up in better shape.

Devers did nothing to diminish his prospect status in 2015, slashing .288/.329/.443 as an 18-year-old for Low-A Greenville in the South Atlantic League. As a matter of fact, he enhanced his status, moving up from number 99 in Baseball America’s top-100 list at the start the season to number 15 in their mid-season adjusted rankings. All the projectable skills remain — Devers has an advanced-for-his-age plate approach, proper swing mechanics, and can spray the ball to all fields. He is solidly built and projects to be a future middle-of-the-order power hitter, but his stroke right now lends itself to more doubles power — his 38 two-baggers were second in the Sally League. As he matures and gets stronger, Devers should develop plus power to go with a plus hit tool. He will remain on a third-base track for now, but could end up at DH long term. Devers should begin his age-19 season at High-A Salem.

Devers, considered the jewel of Boston's international free-agent signings in 2013, spent his first full year in the Boston organization in 2014, using his advanced hitting skills to tear up the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League. He slashed .322/.404/.506 with seven homers in 302 plate appearances. The Red Sox are quite pleased with his plate approach and ability to hit to all fields. They also saw improved defense from Devers, a solidly built 18-year-old who will remain at third base for the time being. He may add more bulk as he matures, something that could reduce his lateral quickness and necessitate a move to first base or left field. Look for Devers to make the progression to short-season Lowell with the potential to reach Low-A Greenville in the second half of 2015.

Devers, a 17-year-old that was one of the top international free agents, is all projection at this point. This coming season will be his first full one in the organization. At such a young age, Devers is still growing and may add too much weight, putting a move to first base in order. At this point, though, third base is home and he's showed enough instincts to stay there. Regardless of his eventual position, there is a lot of upside here.