Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo

33-Year-Old PitcherRP
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2023 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for Seth Lugo in 2023. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year, $3.93 million contract with the Mets in March of 2022.
Scoops up second win of 2022
PNew York Mets  
July 28, 2022
Lugo struck out three and allowed one hit over 1.2 scoreless innings to pick up the win Wednesday in the Mets' 3-2 victory over the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
Lugo has seen his effectiveness diminish since he was a dominant late-inning reliever for the Mets in 2019, but the right-hander looked as sharp Wednesday as he had been at any point this season. After recording five crucial outs to keep the score tied heading into the bottom of the ninth, Lugo was rewarded with the win when Starling Marte walked off the Yankees with an RBI single.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
17
Last 10 Games
17
Last 5 Games
14
How many pitches does Seth Lugo generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Seth Lugo generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-20%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-40%
BAA vs LHP
2021
Even Split
2020
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .210 276 75 27 51 6 1 10
Since 2020vs Right .262 339 95 18 83 16 1 13
2022vs Left .167 113 33 8 17 3 0 3
2022vs Right .279 159 36 10 41 6 0 6
2021vs Left .237 92 21 15 18 2 1 3
2021vs Right .237 103 34 4 23 6 0 3
2020vs Left .246 71 21 4 16 1 0 4
2020vs Right .260 77 25 4 19 4 1 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-49%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-10%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-37%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-85%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 2.69 1.08 77.0 8 2 3 11.2 2.9 1.3
Since 2020Away 5.32 1.45 71.0 2 7 4 9.5 2.8 1.5
2022Home 3.41 1.17 31.2 1 0 1 10.5 2.8 1.1
2022Away 3.78 1.17 33.1 2 2 2 8.6 2.2 1.4
2021Home 2.77 1.23 26.0 4 2 1 11.4 3.8 1.4
2021Away 4.43 1.38 20.1 0 1 0 9.7 3.5 0.9
2020Home 1.40 0.72 19.1 3 0 1 12.1 1.9 1.4
2020Away 9.35 2.08 17.1 0 4 2 10.9 3.1 2.6
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Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.83
 
K/9
9.6
 
BB/9
2.5
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
94.5 mph
 
ERA
3.60
 
WHIP
1.17
 
BABIP
.300
 
GB/FB
1.41
 
Left On Base
78.9%
 
Exit Velocity
81.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.6%
 
Spin Rate
2578 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
20.8%
 
Swinging Strike
9.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Seth Lugo
MLB: Postseason Cheat Sheet and Strategy
54 days ago
Todd Zola tackles the MLB Postseason Cheat Sheet for RotoWire and discusses his approach to postseason leagues this year.
Closer Encounters: Midseason Closer Rankings
145 days ago
Ryan Rufe gives a tiered ranking of his top 70 closers for the rest of the season, with Clay Holmes jumping up near the top.
The Z Files: Sometimes, Crime Does Pay
193 days ago
Todd Zola examines the league-wide stolen-base environment and identifies some speedy players who could be valuable as streaming options, including Andres Gimenez.
Bernie on the Scene: Final Fantasy Rankings
239 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff offers his rankings of designated hitters and relievers, starting with Yordan Alvarez in Houston.
MLB: Jeff Zimmerman's Fantasy Grab Bag
September 9, 2021
Jeff Zimmerman returns with his latest Grab Bag! With the Yankees in a tailspin, how should we set our playing time expectations for those in pinstripes?
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Once an elite reliever in 2018 and 2019, Seth Lugo posted a 2.68 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28.6% K%, and 6.1% BB% in 181.1 innings. Lugo saved nine games in 15 chances with 32 holds in 2018 and 2019. He continued as a starter and reliever in 2020 and 2021 with an above-average 28.7% K%, but the ratios jumped to a 4.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, plus an increase in BB% to 8.2% in 83 innings. Lugo underwent elbow surgery to remove loose bodies in February 2021, then returned in June as a reliever. He possesses starter-like stuff with four pitches eliciting a double-digit SwStr% in the 4-seam, curve, slider, and change. It's rare for a reliever to use four pitches relatively evenly too. Assuming full health, Lugo should improve the K-BB% closer to 2019 and 2020 (26.4%) in a middle relief role to help with ratios and strikeouts. However, he's more of a waiver wire pickup or draft-and-hold league target.
To this point, the Mets haven't been able to figure out what to do with Lugo. After breaking him in as a swingman, they tried him as the closer down the stretch in 2019 and Lugo thrived, but then they talked about potentially stretching him back out as a starter. Lugo was in the bullpen when the 2020 season finally got underway and he racked up three saves in his first seven appearances, but then New York did indeed move him to a starting role, which proved to be a bad move as Lugo struggled to a 6.15 ERA as a starter (2.61 ERA as a reliever). His fastball velocity was only around 92-93 mph on average in September, down a couple ticks from where he was as a reliever in 2019. Lugo's overall K-BB% was still a stellar 23.1%. Hopefully this new regime puts Lugo in the bullpen and leaves him be. He's a lot better than he showed in 2020 and we know he can be a late-inning weapon, ultra-effective in short spurts.
Lugo had his best season yet in his fourth year in the majors, his first one spent entirely in the bullpen. While his 2.70 ERA was marginally behind his numbers in 2016 and 2018, his 2.70 FIP and 3.24 xFIP were each career bests. His 5.1% walk rate was likewise a career low, while his excellent 33.1% strikeout rate smashed his previous career high of 25.1%. With Edwin Diaz falling far short of expectations, Lugo even picked up six saves. The Mets want Diaz to be the closer they expected when they traded for him prior to the 2019 season, and there is talk that Lugo might be stretched out as a starter this spring. If Diaz struggles for the second straight year, newly-signed Dellin Betances looks like the most likely beneficiary. Lugo can still offer value in rotisserie leagues due to his heavy workload (80 innings) and high strikeout rate, just don't expect him to top last year's saves total.
Lugo was versatile for the Mets last season, serving as a starter, closer and middle reliever at different times throughout the campaign. His 2019 plan looks similar; he’s been told by the new regime in New York to prepare for any job, though closing is probably off the table after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz from Seattle. Lugo’s fastball played up in relief and gave him closer-like peripherals, but he can also spread the wealth with five solid-to-awesome offerings as a starter, including a Statcast-melting curveball. Chances are, he will spend most of the year in a high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen role, once again pitching roughly 100 innings. This is the wave of the future, and these highly-skilled non-closers, previously afterthoughts in traditional mixed leagues, are growing more appealing with fewer workhorse starters in the game. Consider tucking Lugo away in the late rounds.
Formerly an unheralded depth piece, Lugo spun a 2.68 ERA in eight starts to end 2016 and looked like valuable insurance for a brittle Mets rotation. The right-hander was bit by the injury bug himself, unfortunately, crashing to a 4.71 ERA over 19 appearances last year while pitching with a slight UCL tear. He later missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The good luck from his .230 BABIP and 85.7 left-on-base percentage the previous year dissolved into .325 and 68.4, respectively. Lugo features an elite curveball, which led the league in spin rate across 2015 and 2016 with a combined 3337 rpm average and finished sixth in 2017 with 3058, per Statcast. His 3.40 K/BB showed a solid foundation for command. However, Lugo is in limbo with no opening as a starter heading into 2018, but he could wind up being traded or filling an injury void for a significant stretch, making him a logical deep-league dart.
Seen as a non-prospect entering last season, Lugo logged eight starts for the Mets due to injuries in the rotation, and the results were surprisingly excellent in 47 innings as a starter. Unfortunately, his 4.93 FIP and 90.9 percent strand rate suggest he was pretty fortunate. That said, some Statcast data suggests Lugo is worth monitoring. He has the highest average curveball spin rate over the past two seasons (Garrett Richards and Jesse Hahn round out the top three). It is an awfully effective pitch, as it held opposing hitters to a .235 average and .294 slugging percentage. The rest of Lugo's pitches are just mediocre offerings, which is why his 17.3 percent strikeout rate does not back up the notion that he might have an 80-grade curveball in his toolbox. He is unlikely to break camp in the starting rotation, but if an injury opens up a spot, Lugo's curveball makes him interesting enough to be worth an add in deeper formats.
More Fantasy News
Stuck with loss Tuesday
PNew York Mets  
July 6, 2022
Lugo (1-2) took the loss Tuesday as the Mets fell 1-0 to the Reds, giving up one run on one hit and two walks in one-third of an inning.
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Notches third save
PNew York Mets  
July 5, 2022
Lugo gave up a hit in a scoreless ninth inning Monday to record his third save of the season in a 7-4 win over the Reds.
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Officially reinstated
PNew York Mets  
June 23, 2022
Lugo was reinstated from the paternity list Thursday, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
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Due back Friday
PNew York Mets  
Personal
June 22, 2022
Mets manager Buck Showalter said he expects Lugo (personal) to be activated from the paternity list prior to Friday's game in Miami, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
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Goes on paternity leave
PNew York Mets  
Personal
June 20, 2022
The Mets placed Lugo on the paternity list Monday.
ANALYSIS
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