Tarik Skubal

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

Detroit Tigers

2024 Stats

W-L

18-4

ERA

2.39

WHIP

0.92

228

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Skubal performed at a Cy Young level over 80.1 innings in 2023 following his return from flexor tendon surgery, but many questioned how many innings he would be able to handle in 2024. The southpaw ended up running away with the AL Cy Young Award, shattering all expectations and leading Detroit to its first postseason appearance in a decade. He totaled 192 innings during the regular season -- 42.2 more than his previous career high in 2021 -- and added 19 stellar frames in the playoffs (2.37 ERA, 20:2 K:BB). A power lefty, Skubal can pull the string on a changeup that dances in unexpected ways thanks to a phenomenon now known as seam-shifted wake. He also has a slider to help against same-handed hitters, who combined to slash just .186/.238/.248 against Skubal last season. The Tigers basically took him off the table in discussions at the trade deadline and were justified in doing so, as Skubal is already an ace with the potential to be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for years to come. If there's anything to nitpick, it might be the modest overall chase rate (77th percentile), but keep in mind his low-whiff sinking fastball is a highly effective offering. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 215

DOB 11/20/1996

Born Hayward, CA

College Seattle

Drafted 9th Rd 2018 DET

Unanimously wins AL Cy Young Award

PDetroit Tigers

November 20, 2024

Skubal was named the 2024 American League Cy Young Award winner Wednesday.

ANALYSIS
After turning in a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 192 regular-season innings alongside a 228:35 K:BB, Skubal was heavily favored to win the award, and indeed he received all 30 first-place votes. The left-hander is now the fifth pitcher in Tigers history to take home a Cy Young Award -- a list that includes Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2024 MLB Game Log

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Scoring

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Tarik Skubal generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Tarik Skubal generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-6%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-9%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-40%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-6%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.202	268	55	8	51	10	1	3
Since 2022vs Right	.214	1272	392	73	253	53	8	25
2024vs Left	.186	122	33	5	21	2	1	1
2024vs Right	.204	631	195	30	121	22	3	14
2023vs Left	.125	42	4	2	5	0	0	1
2023vs Right	.210	268	98	12	53	11	3	3
2022vs Left	.250	104	18	1	25	8	0	1
2022vs Right	.234	373	99	31	79	20	2	8
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-34%

ERA at Home

2024

-30%

ERA at Home

2023

-67%

ERA at Home

2022

-9%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	2.25	0.92	200.0	17	6	0	10.1	2.2	0.6
Since 2022Away	3.41	1.06	190.0	15	9	0	10.6	1.6	0.7
2024Home	1.99	0.83	104.0	10	1	0	10.1	2.0	0.6
2024Away	2.86	1.03	88.0	8	3	0	11.4	1.2	0.8
2023Home	1.37	0.79	39.1	3	1	0	13.5	1.6	0.5
2023Away	4.17	1.00	41.0	4	2	0	9.4	1.5	0.4
2022Home	3.34	1.16	56.2	4	4	0	7.6	2.9	0.6
2022Away	3.69	1.15	61.0	3	4	0	10.2	2.1	0.7
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Tarik Skubal compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

6.51

K/9

10.7

BB/9

1.6

HR/9

0.7

Fastball

96.8 mph

ERA

2.39

WHIP

0.92

BABIP

.288

GB/FB

1.47

Left On Base

78.8%

Exit Velocity

82.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

3.6%

Spin Rate

2057 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

20.1%

Swinging Strike

15.2%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Tarik Skubal Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Tigers Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Skubal underwent left flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022 and his rehab extended through the first three months of last season. He was on a limited pitch count initially upon his return and there were some bumps in the road early, but Skubal eventually rounded into form, going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 52:6 K:BB in his final six starts (36 innings). A ninth-round pick in 2018, Skubal changed up his formula last season, dialing back his slider usage significantly for more four-seam fastballs and changeups. The changeup proved to be a big swing-and-miss pitch for him (50.6 Whiff% per Statcast) -- he still threw his slider, but the changeup became his primary secondary pitch behind the four-seamer. In total, the southpaw pitched just 95 innings last season, but if healthy, he should approach his career high of 149.1 innings set in 2021. Entering his age-27 season, Skubal will face an uphill battle every time he takes the ball for Detroit, but his skills are enticing.

Skubal appeared to be in the middle of a breakout campaign in 2022, but the lefty was unfortunately shut down in early August with left arm fatigue, and he subsequently underwent flexor tendon surgery. Before getting shut down, Skubal had posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 117 strikeouts across 117.2 innings. His K/9 dipped from 9.88 in 2021 to 8.95 in 2022, but his numbers were otherwise better across the board, including an impressive 2.95 FIP. Skubal will only be 24 years old when the 2023 season begins, so there's still plenty of potential here down the road, but he's expected to begin the year on the injured list and miss a decent chunk of time. Fantasy managers in standard leagues will want to keep an eye on Skubal, and he could be a decent pickup when he returns, though the Tigers will undoubtedly be cautious with him. He does have more value in keeper and dynasty formats, where his outlook beyond 2023 looks brighter.

To say Skubal's 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP were league average is burying the lede. He posted those ratios despite a 5.5% home run rate, second to only Mike Foltynewicz among starting pitchers. Skubal kept his ratios in check with a 25.9 K% and 7.4 BB%. His 18.5 K-BB% was an impressive 27th among pitchers with at least 140 innings. Skubal's four-seamer was responsible for 22 of his 35 homers. Better location or even cutting back on its 43% usage rate could help Skubal keep the ball in the yard. The changeup was Skubal's most effective pitch with an 18.8 SwStr%, followed by his slider at 15%. Skubal's potential and likely presence on so-called sleeper lists will drive up the price for his sophomore campaign, potential wiping out profit. On the other hand, there are pathways to fewer homers, with that road potentially leading to elite status.

Skubal had an uneven rookie season, but he emerged healthy and should have a rotation spot locked up for the foreseeable future. The 6-foot-3 southpaw's 94-mph fourseamer can touch 98 mph and plays up even more due to deception and extension. The rest of Skubal's repertoire is a work in progress, but a big lefty with a fastball that plays as a 70-grade pitch is a nice place to start. He has always been a flyball pitcher, and he gave up more home runs (nine) in 32 MLB innings than he did in 145 minor-league innings (seven). His 8.2 BB% was an improvement on the 10.6 BB% he logged at Double-A in 2019. Skubal didn't need to consistently execute his offspeed pitches to have success in the minors, and he should get more comfortable with those pitches going forward. If a couple of them can emerge as trustworthy offerings, he should be an effective high-strikeout starter who is susceptible to the long ball.

Skubal would be one of the game's best pitching prospects if we just scouted stats. Poor control caused him to fall in the 2018 draft as a redshirt junior out of Seattle University. He has always missed bats at an elite clip and logged 179 strikeouts in 122.2 innings in his first full season. He does it with a low-to-mid-90s fastball (touches 98) with late life that plays up due to a deceptive left-handed delivery. He doesn't consistently hit his spots, but Skubal's heater can be an unfair pitch regardless of where it is thrown (think Josh Hader), especially for minor leaguers. His middling secondaries play up as well because hitters are forced to gear up for the fastball. Sometimes he will break off a quality curveball or changeup, but they are inconsistent offerings. His injury history, command and secondaries point to a lights-out reliever role, but the Tigers will do their best to make him a starter.

More Fantasy News

All set for ALDS Game 2 start

PDetroit Tigers

October 4, 2024

Skubal (hamstring) will start Monday in Game 2 of the ALDS versus the Guardians, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.

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Battling cramps

PDetroit Tigers

Undisclosed

October 1, 2024

Manager A.J. Hinch said after Tuesday's wild-card game against Houston that Skubal is dealing with cramping, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Taking ball in Game 1

PDetroit Tigers

September 30, 2024

Skubal will start Game 1 of the wild-card series against the Astros on Tuesday, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports.

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May be saved for playoffs

PDetroit Tigers

September 26, 2024

Manager A.J. Hinch said Thursday that Skubal is "unlikely" to pitch in Sunday's regular-season finale versus the White Sox if the Tigers have already clinched a wild-card spot but still have seeding at stake, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Stellar in 18th win

PDetroit Tigers

September 24, 2024

Skubal (18-4) earned the win Tuesday over Tampa Bay, allowing two hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings. He struck out seven.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Extension talks unsuccessful

PDetroit Tigers

November 22, 2024

The Tigers have tried to work out a contract extension with Skubal but didn't come close, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.

ANALYSIS
It's not clear what kind of potential terms were discussed, but it would appear that talks didn't get far. Skubal, who was announced this week as the unanimous American League Cy Young winner, has two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before becoming a free agent.

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