Trevor Larnach

27-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Minnesota Twins

2024 Stats

AVG

.259

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

Unlock Our Projections

2025 Fantasy Outlook

After failing to keep a regular role in the majors in 2023, Larnach lost out on a major league job and began the season in Triple-A. When called up in mid-April and excelled in a platoon role. He hit .259 with 15 home runs and a .772 OPS, but had just 22 at-bats against left-handed pitching. His underlying metrics were strong as he was 90th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 82nd percentile in expected wOBA and 72% in hard-hit percentage, according to Baseball Savant. His upside is limited by his struggles against left-handed pitching with a career .570 OPS and due to his limited range as an outfielder (-2.2 UZR). However, Larnach appeared to turn the corner with his main weakness, strikeouts, as he reduced his K% to a career-low 22.3% while maintaining a solid walk rate (10.0%). He had a big jump in his contact rate as a result (to 74.9% from 60.7% in 2023). If he can continue to make more contact and improve slightly against lefties, Larnach has 30-home run upside. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'4"

Weight 223

DOB 2/26/1997

Born Walnut Creek, CA

College Oregon State

Drafted 1st Rd 2018 MIN

Hits injured list

OFMinnesota Twins

Hamstring

September 28, 2024

The Twins placed Larnach on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a left hamstring strain.

ANALYSIS
Larnach's injury and move to the IL will take him out for the final two games of the Twins' season. He'll close the book on 2024 with a .259/.338/.434 slash line alongside 15 homers and 52 RBI, and the Twins will call up DaShawn Keirsey to make up for the lost depth in their outfield.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+25%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+35%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+86%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+1%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.612	97	10	1	7	0	.222	.278	.333
Since 2022vs Right	.765	695	97	27	103	5	.243	.329	.436
2024vs Left	.579	23	4	0	1	0	.227	.261	.318
2024vs Right	.784	377	55	15	51	4	.261	.342	.441
2023vs Left	.412	23	2	1	3	0	.095	.174	.238
2023vs Right	.766	189	24	7	37	1	.228	.328	.438
2022vs Left	.716	51	4	0	3	0	.277	.333	.383
2022vs Right	.711	129	18	5	15	0	.212	.295	.416
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+26%

OPS at Home

2024

+9%

OPS at Home

2023

+18%

OPS at Home

2022

+87%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.837	378	58	14	57	0	.272	.368	.469
Since 2022Away	.665	414	49	14	53	5	.214	.283	.382
2024Home	.804	207	36	8	30	0	.268	.357	.447
2024Away	.737	193	23	7	22	4	.250	.316	.420
2023Home	.791	97	11	2	16	0	.247	.371	.420
2023Away	.673	115	15	6	24	1	.186	.261	.412
2022Home	.986	74	11	4	11	0	.313	.392	.594
2022Away	.527	106	11	1	7	0	.177	.245	.281
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Stat Review

How does Trevor Larnach compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.45

BB Rate

10.0%

K Rate

22.3%

BABIP

.304

ISO

.175

AVG

.259

OBP

.338

SLG

.434

OPS

.771

wOBA

.340

Exit Velocity

92.0 mph

Hard Hit Rate

38.1%

Barrels/PA

6.8%

Expected BA

.259

Expected SLG

.458

Sprint Speed

22.7 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

44.0%

Line Drive %

18.7%

Fly Ball %

37.3%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Trevor Larnach Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

Larnach began last season in Minnesota's starting lineup but failed to capitalize on the opportunity by hitting .211/.311/.388 with six home runs in 48 games before moving back to Triple-A in mid-June. He put up steady numbers at Triple-A (15 HR In 72 games with a .888 OPS) which earned him a trip to the majors in September where he improved (2 HR and .815 OPS in eight games). Making contact continues to be Larnach's downfall in the majors (60.7% contact rate) fueled by a high strikeout rate (34%). His inability to put the bat on the ball makes him prone to long slumps though he draws walks (12.7 BB%) at a good clip. He has limited defensive ability as corner outfielder, which hurts his chances to win a reserve or platoon role this spring. The 2018 first-round draft pick has 30-plus home run potential if he can make more contact.

Larnach looked set to be an impact hitter in the lineup as he was hitting .299 with a .890 OPS over the first two months sandwiched around a stint on the injured list for a groin injury. He fell apart in June by hitting .127 and later that month needed core muscle surgery. He returned to Triple-A in late September and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. He has a sweet left-handed swing with plus power, but will need to reduce his strikeouts (31.7%). His lack of contact (64.4%) makes him prone to long slumps though he draws walks (10.0 BB%) at a good rate. He has limited defensive ability as corner outfielder, so his bat will need to force himself into the lineup. He'll compete for major league role this spring and could factor as a reserve or in a platoon role. The 2018 first-round draft pick has 30-plus home run potential if he can make more contact.

Larnach struggled in his first taste of the majors as the 2018 first-round draft pick had difficulty making contact despite prodigious power. He showed promise after he was recalled in May by hitting seven home runs with a .775 OPS in his first 47 games. He fell into a long slump in the second half by hitting .167 with a .480 OPS before demoted in August. He has a sweet left-handed swing with plus power, but will need to reduce his strikeouts (34.6%) and show more promise against left-handed pitchers (.525 OPS). He has limited defensive ability as corner outfielder, so his bat will need to force himself into the lineup. He'll likely need to right himself at Triple-A before getting another chance, but could factor as a reserve or in a platoon role right away with a strong spring. He still has upside as a three-category anchor who hits around .260 with 30-plus home runs.

If the only aspect of evaluating prospects for fantasy was triple-slash line potential with the assumption of everyday at-bats, Larnach would be ranked quite a bit higher. However, he fits best in left field, where he still projects to be a below-average defender, and he won't be a threat on the bases. He is an imposing 6-foot-4 slugger who struck out 27.6 percent of the time as a 22-year-old at Double-A in 2019. Larnach is a good hitter for his size, given his plus-plus all-fields power, but strikeouts will probably always be a part of the package, given his long levers. This all puts a lot of pressure on Larnach to do a ton of damage at the plate in order for him to just be a 2- or 3-win player. He should debut this summer and his sweet left-handed swing should keep him in the majors for a long time. The most likely good outcome is a three-category anchor who hits around .260 with 30-plus home runs.

He has not put up jaw-dropping counting stats, but Larnach has been consistently dominant at every full-season stop. In 2018, he logged a 149 wRC+ at Low-A and followed that up with a 148 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A (48% better than a league-average hitter). He has had an Oppo% over 30% and a GB% under 49% at every stop and owns a 10.6 BB% against full-season pitching. The skill set seemed incredibly stable until he struck out 27.6% of the time at Double-A, up from 20.5% at High-A. For a 22-year-old who is a near lock to get double-digit starts at designated hitter every year, Larnach needs to have a pretty airtight offensive profile to be a real asset. The left-handed slugger has plus raw power but has not been able to get to it consistently in games. Given the Twins' organizational depth chart, Larnach is unlikely to reach the majors this year unless he dominates in the upper levels.

Where a player gets drafted is part of the story, but often just a small part when it comes to dynasty-league value. Case in point: Larnach, an Oregon State outfielder the Twins selected with the No. 20 pick in the 2018 draft, might be the best fantasy asset from that class. He projects as a fringe-average defender in an outfield corner, but his bat has a chance to be special. Larnach handled the Appy League with ease (139 wRC+), lacing balls to all fields while walking almost as much as he struck out. He didn't slow down after a promotion to Low-A, notching a 0.65 BB/K, .209 ISO and 149 wRC+ -- marks that would have ranked in the top seven in the Midwest League among qualified hitters. Despite standing 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Larnach covers the entire plate with a beautiful left-handed swing, displaying easy plus power. He won't be much of a threat on the bases by the time he reaches the majors, but could hit .300 with 30-plus homers in his peak seasons.

More Fantasy News

Out against southpaw

OFMinnesota Twins

September 27, 2024

Larnach is not in the lineup for Friday's contest against the Orioles.