Trey Mancini

Trey Mancini

30-Year-Old First Baseman1B
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Mancini certainly felt the effects of the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his production before he was dealt to Houston. His overall numbers were just slightly above the league average for a second consecutive season, but his production in Houston was far less than what he did in Baltimore. Given his history with the Baltimore franchise, it is understandable how the necessary trade wore on him as he hit just .176/.258/.364 after the trade compared to .267/.347/.404 before it, but now we are left wondering what happens with him this offseason as a free agent. 2019 is never happening again, but 20 homers and 60-70 runs scored and runs driven in is certianly in the realm of realistic outcomes for him. It is tough to figure out a batting average projection for someone who has hit anywhere from .239 to .291 in recent seasons, especially someone as slow as him. He needs a heavy dose of batted ball luck to repeat his batting averages of 2017 and 2019, but given we have a different baseball than we had in those seasons, it is safer to hope for a .250 batting average as this DH/1B looks for a new home. He still qualifies in the outfield this season, but this could be the last time he does as his defensive abilities are rapidly fading to unacceptable levels. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year, $7.75 million contract with the Orioles in April of 2022. Traded to the Astros in August of 2022. Astros declined $10 million team option for 2023 in November of 2022.
On way out of Houston
1BFree Agent  
November 9, 2022
The Astros declined their $10 million mutual option on Mancini's contract for 2023 on Wednesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Considering that Mancini wasn't an everyday player during the Astros' run to the World Series and hit just .176 to close out the regular season after coming over in a trade with the Orioles on Aug. 1, Houston's decision to move on from him isn't a major surprise. The 30-year-old's solid track record prior to arriving in Houston should give him a good chance at resurfacing elsewhere in 2023 as a regular starter at either first or designated hitter.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
37
10
7
6
14
10
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
23
9
4
1
7
7
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+11%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+14%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+32%
OPS vs LHP
2020
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .784 410 47 15 49 0 .263 .334 .450
Since 2020vs Right .709 793 86 24 85 0 .239 .317 .392
2022vs Left .650 187 13 4 14 0 .234 .299 .351
2022vs Right .738 400 43 14 49 0 .241 .328 .411
2021vs Left .899 223 34 11 35 0 .288 .363 .535
2021vs Right .680 393 43 10 36 0 .237 .305 .374
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+19%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+9%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+29%
OPS at Home
2020
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .799 608 76 24 74 0 .272 .342 .457
Since 2020Away .669 595 57 15 60 0 .223 .303 .366
2022Home .741 294 33 10 35 0 .259 .327 .414
2022Away .678 293 23 8 28 0 .219 .311 .367
2021Home .853 314 43 14 39 0 .284 .357 .496
2021Away .660 302 34 7 32 0 .226 .295 .365
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Trey Mancini compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.39
 
BB Rate
9.0%
 
K Rate
23.0%
 
BABIP
.286
 
ISO
.152
 
AVG
.239
 
OBP
.319
 
SLG
.391
 
OPS
.710
 
wOBA
.315
 
Exit Velocity
89.5 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
33.2%
 
Barrels/PA
6.5%
 
Expected BA
.245
 
Expected SLG
.410
 
Sprint Speed
22.5 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
39.8%
 
Line Drive %
21.1%
 
Fly Ball %
39.1%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Trey Mancini
FanDuel MLB: Saturday World Series Game 6 Targets
31 days ago
Chris Bennett tackles picks for Game 6 of the World Series and suggests Rhys Hoskins against lefty Framber Valdez.
DraftKings MLB: Saturday Breakdown
31 days ago
There's one team Dan Marcus definitely prefers for Game 6. Read on to see if you can figure it out.
DraftKings MLB: Wednesday Breakdown
34 days ago
Game 4 goes Wednesday night in Philly, and Dan Marcus has your DraftKings player recommendations.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Strategy for World Series Game 2
38 days ago
Chris Bennett advocates for paying up for Yordan Alvarez to lead your FanDuel lineups for Game 2 of the World Series.
2023 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Way Too Early Top 300 Draft Ranks
47 days ago
James Anderson provides a way too early top 300 rankings for those who have the itch to start drafting for 2023.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
After battling cancer, Mancini came back and hardly skipped a beat. While he didn't hit over 30 home runs like he did in 2019 when Major League Baseball was using the infamous juiced ball, the homer total was comparable to his earlier seasons. His walk and strikeout rates remain constant. He still doesn't steal bases (two in his career) and he might have worn down as the season went on, with his OPS dropping from .791 in the first half to .711 in the second half. Most of that OPS loss was the result of a decline in power (.204 ISO to .128 ISO). It's a long season, and Mancini should be commended for playing in 147 games after such a serious health scare. A full offseason with his focus on the game of baseball should help him take a step forward this season.
In mid-March 2020, Mancini was diagnosed with a malignant tumor in his colon. He underwent surgery and embarked on a long recovery process, sidelining him the entire season. Late last year, Mancini reported his latest bloodwork revealed no tumor DNA and he was already working out in an effort to be ready for spring training. When Mancini last took the field in 2019, he was one of the many benefiting from the Happy Fun Ball. He launched a career-best 35 homers that year, but considering the long layoff, it's best to temper expectations, especially early. Mancini was one of the more durable and reliable players in the league and should qualify at first base and in the outfield based on 2019 games played. Assuming no one is paying for Mancini's 2019 numbers, he's a candidate to supply discounted power, in a climate where useful cheap power is hard to find.
Even bad teams score runs. Look no further than Mancini's combined 203 runs and RBI, tied for 20th in MLB. Mancini's 74th percentile hard-hit rate with a relatively low 7.8-degree launch angle favors average over power. However, he clubbed a personal best 35 homers, a remarkable total considering a 32% flyball rate. It wasn't just a Camden Yards thing as Mancini slugged 17 long balls on the road. The homers were earned as illustrated by a 342.8-feet average flyball distance, the 11th longest among qualified hitters. Last season, Mancini split time between first base and outfield and is likely to do so again. The dual eligibility combined with a stable skill set and durability (averaging 152 games the past three seasons) render the righty a solid fantasy hitter, providing stability so risks can be taken elsewhere. With limited speed, Mancini's ceiling is capped unless he elevates the ball more.
Boom-boom had somewhat similar numbers in 2017 and 2018. He repeated his home-run total from his breakout 2017 season, although he needed 50 more plate appearances to get there. He scored a few more runs, thanks to those extra plate appearances, despite a 39-point drop in his on-base percentage. He is a bit of an oddball at the plate because, as a righty, he has been rather terrible against lefty pitchers the past two seasons, and was especially bad against them last year (.225/.287/.364). The only thing worse than his hitting lefties is watching him play the outfield. He has a good arm and can throw well from left field, but his lateral movement can be measured by laying down a yardstick without picking it up again. Statcast says there was more to his contact than the final numbers showed last year, but in a division loaded with quality lefty pitchers, there is a limit to his upside. As long as he stays in Camden, he can pull 20 homers.
There are not too many combinations in baseball better than being a right-handed pull hitter in Camden Yards. The slugger surprised us all when he not only made the Opening Day roster, but stayed on it all year and produced better power numbers than he had anywhere in the minor leagues. The problem for Mancini is this: he had a 51.0 percent groundball rate. Can he continue to hit one of every five flyballs out of the yard? Both are sustainable numbers for any hitter, and we still do not have enough batted balls in play to know confidently the sum of Mancini's abilities. His groundball rate was split neutral, but his HR/FB rate dropped to 16.1 percent in the second half from 23.7 percent in the first half. As long as he gets to hit in Baltimore, he is a decent bet to repeat a 20-homer season, but forecasting 25-plus is tough to do.
Coming off of a breakout 2015 season in which he slashed a hearty .331/.370/.539 between High-A and Double-A, Mancini entered the 2016 season as one of the organization's more promising prospects. After bludgeoning Double-A pitching to the tune of seven home runs in his first 17 games, he was promoted to Triple-A. In 125 games there, the power-hitting first baseman put together an impressive campaign in which he slashed .280/.349/.427 and saw his walk rate increase to nine percent, but also his strikeout rate spike to nearly 23 percent. He joined the O's as a September callup and belted three homers in his 15 big league plate appearances. It will be interesting to see what the Orioles do with Mancini in 2017. With first base blocked by Chris Davis and the DH role likely accounted for with the return of Mark Trumbo, he could end up seeing time in left field in an effort to get his bat in the lineup. It appears to be a tall task, but if he carves out a consistent role, he is capable of providing value due to his impressive power profile.
Mancini vaulted himself to the top of Baltimore's prospect pipeline with a breakout 2015. Drafted in 2013, Mancini had not been regarded as a high level prospect. He started by repeating the High-A level and had a .213 ISO, earning a promotion to Double-A. Mancini was even better at the higher level, punching up his ISO to .227. Mancini sported a .400 BABIP at Double-A, a mark which will be difficult to sustain. With a walk rate of 5.8 percent between the two levels, he still has some work to do on plate discipline, but his 21 home runs on the season reflect power that is beginning to show up in games. Mancini appears to have surpassed Christian Walker as the top prospect at first base. Given how Mancini dominated Double-A, he seems likely to begin the season at Triple-A and he could warrant a midseason promotion unless the Orioles make a big commitment to a free agent first baseman.
More Fantasy News
Sitting in third straight
1BHouston Astros  
November 2, 2022
Mancini is out of the lineup Wednesday for Game 4 of the World Series matchup with the Phillies, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sits second straight
1BHouston Astros  
October 31, 2022
Mancini is not in the lineup for Game 3 of the World Series against the Phillies, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Heads to bench
1BHouston Astros  
October 29, 2022
Mancini will be on the bench for Game 2 of the World Series against the Phillies, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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On bench again
1BHouston Astros  
October 20, 2022
Mancini is not in the lineup for Game 2 of the ALCS versus the Yankees on Thursday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting for Game 1
1BHouston Astros  
October 19, 2022
Mancini is out of the lineup Wednesday for Game 1 of the Astros' American League Championship Series matchup with the Yankees, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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